Matt Brocklebank tipped Champions Day winner Trawlerman at 12/1 last Saturday - don't miss the latest preview and recommended bets.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 21
1pt win The Dasher Conway in 1.15 Cheltenham at 14/1 (bet365) - 12/1 General
1pt win Brief Times in 2.25 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Espoir De Romay in 3.00 Cheltenham at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Freshness key to Romay claims
Given the pretty grim ground at the Flat tracks, Cheltenham always seemed destined to be the first port of call for me this weekend and thankfully there are a few juicy races to get stuck into on the first Saturday at Prestbury Park this season.
The obvious draw is the chasing debut of Flooring Porter who faces Henry De Bromhead’s Toss Again and a couple from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard in the three-mile novice at 4.10, but there’s the odd potential star on show too, including Paul Nicholls’ Blueking D’Oroux, who could be tough to beat in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle, a race won by some cracking horses over the years including Tiger Roll, Sceau Royal and the ill-fated I Like To Move It just a couple of seasons ago.
Bet of the day, however, comes in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, in which ESPOIR DE ROMAY must not be missed.
Rated 160 at his peak over fences, he looks thrown in here off 138 and while unable to capitalise on his lower hurdles rating in three starts earlier in 2023, I’m pretty certain most of Kim Bailey’s horses were under a bit of a cloud throughout last season.
Early indications suggest they’re already rocking and rolling this autumn and the element of freshness with this individual looks especially positive. All four of his career wins have come after a break of at least 50 days (the max was 233 days) and on top of that, he’s resuming following a summer wind op and his debut outing after the first yielded a win at Huntingdon three years ago. The tongue-tie worn for two of his victories also returns.
Relatively decent conditions at Cheltenham are in Espoir De Romay’s favour, although he has won on heavy in the past too, and the seriously strong pace in this race will play to his strengths as well, as he’s not always the best away. He’s a really good each-way bet with extra places taken into account.
Conway can strike under O’Keeffe
Earlier on, they look bound to go a decent clip in the opening Epic Value At William Hill Handicap Chase too and THE DASHER CONWAY is dead interesting.
Trainer Gillian Callaghan doesn’t have all that many to go to war with but is 9-23 with jumpers in Britain and 1-2 at Cheltenham so this one looks a fascinating raider on the back of a promising summer’s work in Ireland.
He’s certainly left last season’s initial chasing efforts behind since going handicapping in this sphere and was third to Sole Pretender in a Listed event at Killarney in July, having previously won well on good going at Tramore.
He fell at the first in a novice at Listowel’s Harvest Festival meeting last month but has since been given a confidence-boosting spin over hurdles and proved he was still on good terms with himself when going down by just a head at Fairyhouse.
It was soft that day but top of the ground seems to suit best and Daragh O’Keeffe – in the saddle for the first time on this horse – is superb an executing a softly-softly, stalking ride.
Keep it Brief despite latest defeat
The other one to back at Cheltenham is BRIEF TIMES, who looks a shade over-priced in the Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase.
He’s another who has been on the go through the summer but that’s clearly no bad thing given the prevailing ground (any rain in the forecast looks to be coming later in the afternoon), and I think a bit too much is being read into his defeat at Worcester when last seen in August.
Chasing a hat-trick of wins there, he was just far too fresh and keen early on for Richie McLernon, and it’s no surprise to see connections immediately turn back to Harry Cobden, who rode the selection to win at Southwell and Bangor.
He came nicely clear with the similarly progressive Go On Chez (runner-up twice since) at Southwell, and he was particularly striking when readily making all at Bangor, for which he went up 8lb.
This obviously demands a bit more having been left on the revised mark but he’s a young chaser representing a stable with a terrific record at the Showcase Meeting in general, and he shouldn’t mind the undulating track having been successful at Exeter and Plumpton in the past too.
Less is more on Town Moor
They’ve done everything possible to try and ensure an acceptable surface at Doncaster for the Kameko Futurity Trophy, including bringing the Group 1 feature earlier into the second slot on the card and dolling off parts of the track, but last weekend’s battering of rain has been kept topped up by further showers through the week and there’s no escaping the fact it’s going to be a gruelling event if passing the early-morning inspection.
My immediate reaction is to try to anticipate the boil-over but the obvious issue with that is that the really top-class ones tend to get away with conditions regardless, as we saw when Luxembourg raced on soft ground for the first time in 2021, and Auguste Rodin handled heavy 12 months ago.
The latest cab off the rank for Aidan O’Brien is the Frankel colt Diego Velazquez, who has won twice on good ground and hasn’t exactly been shaping like an out-and-out slog in the mud is what he’s after in order to show his full potential.
He could still be classy enough, of course, but he’s going to need to at least repeat his Leopardstown form – which has admittedly worked out well since – and in all likelihood improve upon it, if he’s to get the better of both Dancing Gemini and the supplemented Ancient Wisdom.
Ancient Wisdom had subsequent Flying Scotsman winner Dancing Gemini well behind when third to Rosallion in a strong Listed event at Ascot in July and evidently improved for the move up to a mile and softer ground when providing Charlie Appleby with another Autumn Stakes win at Newmarket earlier this month.
He looks the one shining light in the juvenile division for Godolphin this season and he may be too good if running up to form.
The colt I’m most tempted by at a huge price is Redhot Whisper, whose trainer Ben Brookhouse has some decent ammo and looks a man going places. This son of Too Darn Hot was a considerable eyecatcher on debut when finding seven furlongs on quick ground too sharp a test on his Leicester debut, before again running a race full of promise when beaten three-quarters of a length by God’s Window in a course and distance maiden last month.
Given how keen he was through the early stages, it was pretty unusual the way he finished off his race on the soft ground that day and it’s worth pointing out he’s now 3lb better off with the reopposing winner.
He could still be a little too unfurnished to get involved when it matters most at this sort of level, but he’s got no hope according to the layers and I’m not sure I fully agree with that take. Perhaps I’ll seek out a Saturday morning match bet with the Gosden horse, or look to try and back him in one of the place markets on the Betfair Exchange.
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Published at 1600 BST on 27/10/23
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