Cheltenham tips: Best value bets for New Year's Day 2023

By Matt Brocklebank

15:04 · SUN January 01, 2023

Our man tipped two big-priced Newbury winners (9/1 and 11/1) on Saturday and now looks ahead to the New Year's Day action from Cheltenham, though he isn't willing to turn over a new leaf just yet.

The Value Bet column enjoyed a fantastic year in 2022, registering over 140pts of profit to recommended stakes
Matt tipped Saturday's Newbury winners Grumpy Charley and Blenkinsop at 12/1 and 9/1 on Friday, as well as Challow runner-up You Wear It Well each-way at 25/1
The Antepost Value Bet has also produced super profits this year, featuring Desert Crown at 25/1 for the Derby

Value Bet tips: Sunday, January 1

1pt e.w. Simply The Betts in 1.55 Cheltenham at 18/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt win Brinkley in 3.05 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Simply too well treated to miss

A new year begins and with it the chance to bask in fresh ideas and new ways of thinking, yet it’s the same flight of fancy from me as SIMPLY THE BETTS remains the horse I want to back at Cheltenham on Sunday.

He was top of the shortlist at the prices available ahead of the abandoned December Gold Cup here, having slipped back to his last winning mark (149) following a far from discouraging reappearance run in the Paddy Power at this venue in mid-November.

There’s no need to go over old ground to quite the same degree but the case for Simply The Betts is pretty clear. He’s only had half a dozen runs for the champion trainer, after proving himself a seriously progressive novice under Harry Whittington a couple of years ago, and this event – along with the biggie at the weather-hit International meeting – looks highly likely to have been one of his key targets following the private purchase by amateur jockey/owner David Maxwell.

Maxwell has never ridden a winner over fences around Cheltenham, something he’s desperate to put right, but he’s 2-4 here in hurdle races and enjoyed one of his finest moments in the saddle on this card aboard Dolphin Square 12 months ago.

Half an hour earlier on New Year’s Day 2022, Simply The Betts had finished second to Vienna Court – the pair 10 lengths clear of the third – in this very race and, with Saturday’s rain in his favour, it’s not hard to envisage the now 10-year-old going one better off 3lb lower (6lb if including Maxwell’s claim).

If I was looking for a saver nearer the top of the market, I’d be aiming to get Shakem Up'Arry on side after his impressive Exeter win when reappearing at the start of December.

I thought a 5lb rise was pretty lenient given the way he put them away there but there’s still just a small doubt he’ll be at his best over the extended two and a half miles on the relatively testing New Course.

I’ll stick with the sole each-way interest in the principal betting heat of the day.

Pipe to work oracle with headgear

Elsewhere on the card, I’m a big fan of Beauport but can let him go unbacked under a penalty in the Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Dipper), while impressive Greatwood winner I Like To Move It could well be the one to beat in the Careers@DornanGroup.com Relkeel Hurdle – the step up in trip on softer ground of no concern whatsoever for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge. You would have to fear the Henderson pair of Marie’s Rock and First Street so the market looks to have this about right.

Dolphin Square is back for another bite at the cherry in the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle but he’s 4lb higher in the weights than when successful last year and a much shorter price too so I’ll chance BRINKLEY in the first-time visor for trainer David Pipe, who was among the winners at Uttoxeter on Saturday.

The grey is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde character as when he’s bad he’s really bad, but he does have lots of ability when putting it all in. He also remains quite lightly raced for his age and there’s no escaping he’s been given a rattling good chance by the handicapper as he’s 12lb lower than when midfield in the 2021 Pertemps Final.

He lost his way after making a winning chase debut (first-time tongue tie) at Huntingdon last December and his two most recent runs – both over hurdles – have been pretty lacklustre, but his jumping went to pot at Chepstow in February and I can excuse the comeback run in a hot race at Haydock in November.

He’s been given plenty of time off after that and a swift revival in the new headgear looks perfectly plausible here. A small win-only bet is recommended.

Published at 1500 GMT on 31/12/22

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