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Cheltenham tips: Best value bets for day three at the Festival
- Matt's Value Bet column, published on the eve of all major race televised meetings, was +39pts for the first two months of 2022 - he also tipped Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase runner-up Funambule Sivola each-way at 50/1, and Coral Cup third Ashdale Bob each-way at 22/1.
Value Bet Cheltenham tips: Thursday March 17
1pt e.w. Coeur Serein in 2.10 Cheltenham at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt win Royal Kahala in 3.30 Cheltenham at 8/1 (Coral, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Spiritofthegames in 4.10 Cheltenham at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Mister Coffey in 5.30 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
Already advised
1pt win Impervious in Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 16/1
Feeling flush ahead of Stayers' Hurdle
After a Wednesday deluge, ROYAL KAHALA is fancied to rise to the occasion and take full advantage of some tricky customers in opposition in Thursday’s Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle.
Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream, Champ and Paisley Park all have their quirks and while Thyme Hill is arguably the solid one of the pack who will handle the massive crowd better than most, he doesn’t set a wild form standard at which Peter Fahey’s improving mare must aim.
The daughter of Flemensfirth was rising through the grades en route to Cheltenham last March and despite putting in one of the worst efforts of her life when only ninth to Telmesomethinggirl in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, there was a legitimate excuse that day as she finished lame.
Sent off 9/2 favourite for Festival glory 12 months back, she’s lived up to her reputation this time around, just missing out on her Punchestown comeback before wins over Heaven Help Us and Home By The Lee at Leopardstown and Gowran respectively.
Klassical Dream, only fourth to the mare in the Galmoy, probably wasn’t even close to his best for whatever reason, but third home Ashdale Bob has franked the form with a head second at Navan and a fine third in Wednesday's Coral Cup, fifth Court Maid has finished second to Elimay and sixth Any Second Now won the Bobbyjo subsequently, so it’s respectable form to say the least.
Royale Kahala stayed every yard of the three-mile trip – her first ever attempt at the distance – and she looks to be coming into the race with plenty of upside. Ease underfoot suits and getting 7lb from every other horse in the field brings her into it ratings-wise too.
Sticking with the females, I was a big fan of what Impervious was doing much earlier in the campaign and hopefully she can take another step up by conceding the weight penalty in the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.
The extra burden didn’t stop Limini, Let’s Dance or Laurina in the first three editions of this contest and Colm Murphy’s six-year-old should really enjoy the likely strong pace and New Course’s lengthy run from the second-last to the final flight.
She was totally undone by a complete lack of pace in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse when last seen but being considered good enough to run against the boys in Grade One company was a pretty significant indicator as to the regard in which she’s held, and she’s proven on good and bad ground as well.
I can let the antepost bet do its job with Impervious but certainly couldn’t put anyone off coming to the race fresh as Dinoblue is so inexperienced while her Willie Mullins stablemate Brandy Love was jumping all over the place at Fairyhouse and clearly has a kink in her somewhere.
I’m in no mood to oppose Allaho ahead of his Ryanair Chase repeat and I’ll look forward to Bob Olinger versus Galopin Des Champs in the Turners without the need to get financially involved there either.
O'Neill to work magic with headgear
The rest of the card is made up of some cracking handicaps and Gordon Elliott runs six in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle.
His recent record in the race is highly impressive, running 10 (for the sake of argument I'm including the Denise Foster-trained The Bosses Oscar 12 months ago) in the last six renewals and remarkably enjoying three wins, three seconds, a third, a fourth and two fifths.
The inevitable issue is that they're all so well found in the market as a consequence and it's worth noting that nobody can yet match Jonjo O'Neill's four winners in this event down the years. He relies on COEUR SEREIN this time and the eight-year-old appears a little over-priced.
The case for him is fairly simple, in that he looked an improving handicapper towards the end of last term, completing a hat-trick of wins in first-time cheekpieces at Huntingdon in May, and returned to hurdles with a promising second in last month's Exeter qualifier having not really taken to fences in the autumn.
Proven on all kinds of ground and with stamina assured, the horse also now gets another headgear switch with blinkers applied for the first time in public.
O'Neill has a good record when fitting headgear at the Festival, Holywell winning this race in first-time blinkers and Alfie Sherrin winning the Ultima in first-time cheekpieces.
Coeur Serein was given a mark of 142 after falling at the last with the race at his mercy on chasing debut in October and can run here from 135 so there must be a good chance he's a few steps ahead of the assessor.
Strong Coffey chance
MISTER COFFEY – the shortest-price of the British contingent – is worth a bet in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup.
The Irish amateurs are on another level, generally speaking, and Rob James being able to claim 7lb in this company looks a gift from above, but Gold Cup-winning rider Sam Waley-Cohen can still hold his own at a good level and his mount looks to have been crying out for a step up to three miles this season.
He was fourth to Tronador in a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Aintree last April, a race that worked out exceptionally well - throwing up 19 subsequent winners including Edwardstone, War Lord, Stolen Silver and Amour De Nuit.
Mister Coffey runs off exactly the same mark (137) now following three runs over fences around the turn of the year, losing a shoe when just missing out to Jacamar (won again since) at Kempton before splitting Wednesday's Brown Advisory winner L’Homme Presse and Pic D’Orhy in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last time.
He looks to be building towards a serious spring campaign and is expected to flourish for the move up in distance on Thursday.
That's the Spirit
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES rates an each-way bet in a wide-open renewal of the Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase.
He’s run stacks of good races around this venue down the years including over hurdles, just coming up short on several occasions, typified by his third in this event three years ago and sixth in 2020.
As a result of his high level of consistency, Spiritofthegames spent three seasons with a chase rating somewhere between 141 and 150, which probably persuaded Dan Skelton to make a bid for the Pertemps Final back over hurdles last March as he could run off a lower mark there.
He ran his usual game race in eighth that day but he’s a better chaser and duly produced a fine third returned to fences at Aintree the following month.
After undergoing a second breathing operation in the summer, it’s taken a while for him to rediscover his mojo but there was finally some promise in his staying-on third behind Torn And Frayed here on Trials Day when last seen.
The handicapper has kindly dropped him another pound which means the horse gets in here off 136 looking really well treated again if primed for one last hurrah.
There will be more progressive rivals in the line-up and it’s a guessing game as to how well treated the likes of Fancy Foundations and Grand Paradis could be, but he'll cope with soft ground and the extra places on offer make Spiritofthegames quite appealing.
Published at 1645 GMT on 16/03/22
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