Cheltenham Festival stats selections for Tuesday

Click here for the key stats for all seven races on Champion Day

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Willie Mullins has dominated this race but none of his four runners come into the race with an ideal profile. Melon has had only one start and only two winners, both from the Mullins yard, had had as few as two starts while Crack Mome and Bunk Off Early were both beaten last time. The Betfair Hurdle has proved a reasonable guide as has the previous season’s Champion Bumper but Ballyandy has already tasted defeat more times than any recent winner. However, there is no stand out contender on the stats and thus he gets a most tentative nod ahead of Melon and River Wylde.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy

There have been four odds-on winners of the Arkle and it will be a major surprise if Altior doesn't become another. He's impossible to knock.

Ultima Handicap Chase

No recent winner has been rated higher than 148 which suggests the seven horses above the novice Label Des Obeaux have their work cut out. Novices have a fair record in this contest and Alan King’s runner did run at last year’s Festival which is another plus as eight of the last 10 winners had run at the meeting before. A good run last time is desirable which counts against former winners Holywell and The Druids Nephew while winning form over at least three miles is a prerequisite and as such Label Des Obeaux is preferred to last year’s Martin Pipe winner Ibis Du Rheu.

Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

There's been plenty of support for Brain Power but he would be a rare winner having failed to place or win a Grade One hurdle (he was third of six at Punchestown mind) with similar comments applying to Moon Racer who has yet to compete at that level over obstacles. He does have, at least, previous at the Festival but so do the other principals with the exception of Petit Mouchoir who could only finish eighth in the Supreme. There's not a great deal to separate Buveur d'Air and Yanworth on the stats but preference is for the latter who has had the more conventional preparation.

OLBG Mares' Hurdle

A race dominated by Willie Mullins and Quevega. The great mare won this race six times and Mullins has saddled the winner in two of the other three renewals with only the inaugural contest escaping him. He dominates the race again with both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag set to line up and ready preference has to be for the former who can confirm Punchestown form with last year's Triumph Hurdle second Apple's Jade.

JT McNamara National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup

 It has paid to concentrate on the top of the market and the runners with the It has paid to concentrate on the top of the market and the runners with the higher official ratings in recent years. This didn’t use to be a great race for six-year-olds but Minella Rocco became the second such runner of that age to win in the last decade so A Genie In Abottle’s age can’t be viewed as too big a negative. He would meet Edwulf on 11lbs better terms in a handicap which suggests that the Joseph O’Brien runner has a huge advantage over his rivals of whom, Champers On Ice, Martello Tower and Arpege d’Alene look leading players with the first two open to improvement with new combinations of aids fitted.

Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase

Hugely competitive fare and not easy to rule many out. Coming into the race on the back of a good run has been desirable but most of the field qualify on that score. Younger horses have tended to dominate with the two winners older than seven both previously smart performers whose careers had been interrupted by injury. Two Taffs appeals as a runner who could derive significant benefit from headgear and the skill of Davy Russell but preference is for Double W’s who should appreciate racing beyond two miles for the first time over fences.