Our expert panel tackle some of the key questions following the five-day confirmations for Cheltenham's opening card on Tuesday.
Cheltenham - Tuesday racecards & FREE video form
- 13:30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
- 14:10 My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
- 14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
- 15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
- 16:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 1)
- 16:50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter)
- 17:30 National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
How does the introduction of Iberico Lord into the Champion Hurdle picture change your thoughts on the day-one feature – if at all?
David Massey: Iberico Lord's supplementation into the Champion Hurdle is something of a surprise, but given it now looks a weaker event for the non-appearance of Constitution Hill, it makes some sense, even if eventually he's just playing for places. Whilst his overall form falls short, he is improving, will like the ground and probably has another step forward in him.
Ben Linfoot: He’s an interesting one isn’t he?! You can imagine Nicky Henderson looking around his yard, wondering what he could supplement for the Champion Hurdle. I suppose the Betfair Hurdle winner immediately springs to mind, but he did win that from a mark of 134 and his revised rating of 143 still leaves him with loads to find if he’s to trouble State Man. I can’t see him doing that, but it’s such a weak race behind the Willie Mullins-trained horse that he will have to come under consideration in any ‘without State Man’ markets as they start to appear out of the woodwork in the next few days.
David Ord: It doesn't but I welcome the decision to roll the dice. I wrote on Monday about how shallow the pool is and wondered who would be the surprise package in there and a progressive, top-end handicapper has a chance of hitting the frame this year, especially if Lossiemouth doesn't turn up. But on ratings he has a mountain to climb against State Man who is just metronomic in how he turns up, runs to a high 160 Timeform rating and if Constitution Hill isn't around wins his Grade One. This is his Champion Hurdle.
Matt Brocklebank: You've got to applaud this move by Nicky Henderson, JP McManus and co and I suspect it wouldn't have happened had we been looking at decent ground for the Champion Hurdle as Iberico Lord clearly loves plenty of cut underfoot. He got a confident ride in the Betfair Hurdle and ended up winning quite stylishly but that's still a world away from what's going to be required to beat State Man, who was four lengths clear of the third when runner-up to Constitution Hill in last year's Champion. Given Iberico Lord is rated just 143 (up 9lb for Newbury), the County Hurdle is still no doubt under consideration so I won't be getting too carried away with the news of his supplementation.
Assuming Ballyburn runs on Wednesday instead, who do you think will go off as Sky Bet Supreme favourite?
David Massey: How long is a piece of string? The money has been for Firefox over the last few days and there's an easy case to be made for him, given he's already beaten Ballyburn and there are possible excuses for his poor effort in the Lawlor's Of Naas. I can see him being well supported and at the moment would be my best guess.
Ben Linfoot: Tullyhill and I think he can win the Supreme as long as stablemate Ballyburn goes for the longer race. He looked a really smart prospect when finishing second to A Dream To Share in a Grade 1 bumper last spring and though it has taken him time to get to grips with hurdling I really liked his Punchestown win last time. The runner-up, No Flies On Him, was readily dismissed by nine lengths and Edward O’Grady’s horse had previously won a Leopardstown maiden nicely, so it look strong form. On soft ground on the first day I think he can grind it out from the front end.
David Ord: Firefox is the one with momentum and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenging for favouritism with doubts around Tullyhill's jumping. But if Ballyburn heads to the Gallagher then Mystical Power would surely head here and I think he'd attract support. High profile connections, regal breeding, form figures of 111 and the one runner in this division to show a marked turn of foot at the top level so far.
Matt Brocklebank: Even without Ballyburn, Willie Mullins still holds the key to the Supreme and those all-important final workouts are likely to have a big bearing on the betting. I was impressed with Tullyhill last time and assume he'll be Paul Townend's ride (provided Ballyburn runs in the Gallagher), but there must be a chance the late money comes for Mystical Power as he's unbeaten with a pretty sexy profile for JP McManus.
Lossiemouth – banker or blowout for the Mares’ Hurdle?
David Massey: In truth I'm fairly neutral on Lossiemouth at the moment - there is a slight doubt over her stamina for the Mares' and I've no doubt the books will want to get her on the day. I'm keener on backing You Wear It Well at 50/1 each-way; winning Festival form, trip ideal, and if connections go back to front-running, which suits her so well, she's almost guaranteed an easy lead. What's not to like?
Ben Linfoot: The trip is a question mark but her class is undeniable in this company and I think she’ll win. You wouldn’t want her pulling too hard on the way round and for that reason I’d stop short of having too much of the Cheltenham bank on her, but if she settles just adequately I don’t think anything will be classy enough to beat her to the winning line in the Mares’.
David Ord: If she's beaten it will be because of stamina - it's her first run at two-and-a-half miles and the way she won her Grade Ones last year, and the Unibet Hurdle this time around, she hardly looked to be crying out for a step up. If she stays she wins but it remains an 'if' - and bankers shouldn't have one of those attached to them.
Matt Brocklebank: I'm not a big fan of the word 'banker', personally, but can't see this one being beaten! Mr Massey may be onto something from a tactical perspective, but none of these have the form of Lossiemouth and a slowly-run race will probably just highlight her turn of foot to an even greater degree.
Has anything caught your eye in either of the two Tuesday handicaps?
David Massey: Cloudy Glen needs a couple to come out of the Ultima but has been kept fresh for it this year, which wasn't the case last season; a run in the National Trial at Haydock did him no favours and the quick turnaround saw him blowout. This time, we've not seen him since New Year's Day, and with Venetia's horses running better after a rocky spell, I could see him giving a bold sight from the front.
Ben Linfoot: If Weveallbeencaught gets in the Ultima he’ll be interesting but it’s touch and go after the six-dayers as he’s number 36 on the list. He could go for the Kim Muir if he doesn’t get in the Tuesday race. Kim Bailey’s Trelawne is also in both races but he will definitely get in the Ultima if connections so wish and he’ll be of interest wherever he turns up. Novices have a good record in this race and Trelawne could be a huge improver stepping up in trip having contested good 2m4f races all season. He’s bred for a trip and bolted up first time when unleashed over three miles in handicap hurdle company, so he's on the radar around 14/1.
David Ord: I have an inkling Karia Des Blaises might run a big race in the Boodles. She clipped heels on her debut for the Mullins team when disappointing in the Grade Two at Leopardstown over Christmas but was much more together next time behind stablemate Miss Manzor at Fairyhouse. She was ridden to finish that day and while two-and-a-quarter lengths adrift of her stablemate, she shaped with plenty of promise. I think a big field, strong pace scenario will really suit, I wouldn't be surprised to see a hood applied and she's three pounds better off with her conqueror.
Matt Brocklebank: I'm obviously not alone in thinking Boodles project Ose Partir could be nicely handicapped as his antepost odds dried up a couple of weeks ago. I'm hoping he might drift back out to a backable price after declarations, while the other Irish one I've got an eye on is Henry De Bromhead's Amirite in the Ultima. He was favourite for last year's Irish National as a novice and I thought he shaped quite well in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas when last sighted.
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