Cheltenham Festival update: Spotlight on the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

What’s the latest development?

He’d probably be first to admit it’s not all been plain-sailing with the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers so far this winter, the likes of Tullyhill, Ballyburn and Western Diego last weekend bringing high-class bumper form into the campaign but all three turned over at skinny odds at Punchestown, Fairyhouse and Cork, respectively.

Half an eyebrow may have been raised in certain quarters, but it’s a numbers game at Closutton after all and, as we’ve seen during several other seasons in recent years, any wider concerns over the wellbeing of the yard pre-Christmas never last long.

That was hammered home on Sunday after Mullins won both maiden hurdles at Navan and saddled the one-two at Thurles for good measure.

In the Thurles maiden, the sizeable Asian Master (7/1 under Tom Costello) got the better of heavily-backed French import Jimmy Du Seuil (evens), Paul Townend’s mount just unable to get past the long-time leader, who was also making his debut for the yard having run a couple of times for Anthony Costello including once in a hunter chase.

Neither of that pair, nor Navan scorers Dancing City and Spread Boss Ted, made much of a ripple on the antepost markets for Cheltenham but it was more of a flexing of the muscles from Ireland’s champion trainer ahead of the big Christmas Festival in less than two weeks’ time, where he could unleash the most exciting Supreme contender of the lot.

What's the latest betting?

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle: 6/1 A Dream To Share, 13/2 Jeriko Du Reponet, 8/1 Mirazur West 8/1, 11/1 Firefox, Willmount, 12/1 Ballyburn, Daddy Long Legs, 16/1 It's For Me, Down Memory Lane, Dysart Enos, 20/1 Mystical Power, 25/1 Redemption Day, Gaucher, Junta Marvel, Johnnywho, You Oughta Know, Lookaway, Jango Baie, Ile Atlantique, Slade Steel, Brechin Castle 25/1, 33/1 bar.

Click here for the latest Sky Bet Supreme odds

Who has laid down the best marker so far this season?

With the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) and the Formby Novices’ Hurdle (formerly the Tolworth, now run at Aintree) still to come later in the month, we’ve just had the one Grade 1 novice for two-mile hurdlers this season and Royal Bond victory went to Farren Glory on December 3.

Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old is a second-season novice having run in a Grade 2 at the Easter Festival on his final outing last term and, after mopping up a Clonmel maiden on his reappearance, stepped up to the plate when grinding out victory from stablemate King Of Kingsfield, with the impressive Fairyhouse maiden winner (and 5/2 fav) An Tobar back in third.

As can often be the case, this year's Royal Bond was a messy old race and it did appear that Farren Glory’s proven stamina (has form in 3m form in point-to-points) won out on the day, while his trainer suggested a step up in trip for the Challow Hurdle at Newbury was not out of the question as a possible next port of call.

Elliott also has Future Champions Novice favourite Down Memory Lane firmly in the picture. He backed up the impression made in a point last October and a February bumper when winning as he liked on hurdling debut at Down Royal and could go a long way if just brushing up his jumping technique.

The other Elliott must-have in this particular conversation is wide-margin Grade 3-winning mare Brighterdaysahead and she could also get a shot at the big two-miler at Leopardstown which will probably determine whether or not she is in need of a longer distance to be seen at her very best.

As for Mullins-trained novices that have had a run, Ballyburn may have lost his unbeaten record behind Elliott’s Firefox at Fairyhouse but he’s still got the ‘Large P’ with Timeform, who clearly haven’t lost faith in how high he could fly as a hurdler with more experience under the belt.

Unlike Jimmy Du Seuil, Daddy Long Legs made no mistake on his Irish debut and could hardly have been more impressive with a 13-length stroll in an admittedly light field at Thurles at the end of November.

He clearly slots into the ‘could be anything’ bracket, while Absurde is a lot more exposed but no less fascinating given he won the Ebor and finished seventh in the Melbourne Cup when last seen. Prior to York, he’d won a novice hurdle at Killarney (2m4f) as he liked and was odds-on for a Listed event at Galway when let down by his jumping. He’ll be back over obstacles before long but could obviously be campaigned over further than the minimum trip.

In terms of the Brits, Lookaway and Kamsinas have won ‘trials’ for the Supreme at Cheltenham and Haydock, earning them Timeform ratings of 135 and 134p, respectively, but the former has a handicap entry at Ascot at the time of writing and Kamsinas could look to take in something like the Betfair Hurdle en route to the spring.

If recent history is anything to go by, there’s a good chance they’ll be some way behind the pick of the Irish soon after the Dublin Racing Festival.

Nicky Henderson has no fewer than five Supreme victories on his CV, winning two of the last four with Shishkin and Constitution Hill, and surely had a wry smile on his face when quoted as saying he had “ten more like him at home” on the back of Jeriko Du Reponet’s striking Newbury maiden win on December 1.

The 40/1 runner-up is officially rated 108 so the form isn’t worth much to say the least, but this four-year-old had been talked up long before his racecourse introduction and it was obviously encouraging to see him pick them up and spit them out in a race Henderson has won with the likes of dual Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air and Jonbon in recent years.

With stronger form at this point – and presumably one of the “other ten” – fellow Seven Barrows representative Willmount laid down a serious marker at Newbury earlier in the campaign. He had arrived with a tall reputation from the Neil Mulholland yard and did what was expected as the 1/3 favourite.

There are mixed messages when it comes to the bare form of that race but the 21-length fourth has since won a handicap by 11 lengths off 118 so there is at least some substance to go on and I'm inclined to take a positive view of him as an individual going places.

Horse (Timeform master rating)

• Brighterdaysahead (139p)
• Farren Glory (139p)
• Horantzau D’airy (138)
• Ile Atlantique (136p)
• Absurde (135+)
• Lookaway (135)
• Kamsinas (134p)
• Daddy Long Legs (129P)
• Firefox (129p)
• Ballyburn (126P)
• Willmount (125P)
• Down Memory Lane (116P)
• Jeriko Du Reponet (110P)

Who could yet emerge as a leading contender?

A couple of horses leap off the page in this regard and, like Down Memory Lane, they’re both owned by JP McManus.

A Dream To Share suffered a stone bruise which ruled him out of a return at Punchrestown in October and he holds no entries at the moment but has clung onto top spot in the Sky Bet Supreme betting regardless. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given just how superior he was during last year’s bumpers and John (and now joint-licence holder) Thomas Kiely have a huge amount to look forward to if the son of Muhaarar can translate that form to hurdling.

It will be fascinating to see where he slots in with the Mullins-trained Mirazur West, who is a full-brother to Ferny Hollow and made amends for a final-fence fall (two lengths clear at the time) in his point-to-point when hacking up in a Naas bumper on his racecourse introduction back in March.

He’s entered in the Future Champions Novice but it would be highly unusual for him to be thrown into a Grade 1 for his debut and a relatively low-key maiden before something like the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer at Punchestown in the New Year looks a more likely route, from the outside looking in.

There are a few darker ones still lurking and You Oughta Know (also Mullins) definitely deserves a mention.

Two from two in bumpers, his 11-length defeat Croke Park at Kilbeggan in May reads exceptionally well given that one’s subsequent rise to fame and he was no less impressive when following up at Galway in August, winning by two lengths under a penalty from Toto Too, who was in receipt of a stone and won his next two in a Killarney bumper and a Navan maiden hurdle. Toto Too was a touch disappointing behind Lookaway at Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting in October but it’s fair to say You Oughta Know’s first run over hurdles should be revealing and he’s currently 25/1 with the sponsors for the Sky Bet Supreme.

What’s the current conclusion?

Click here for the latest Sky Bet Supreme odds

Those right at the top of the market all look a tad risky for one reason or another but it’s hard to argue with the price of Nicky Henderson’s WILLMOUNT, who appears to have progressed with every start.

He’ll presumably be heading for the new Grade 1 at Aintree on Boxing Day, despite Henderson speaking in riddles around the subject of probably splitting up this horse and fellow Newbury winner Jeriko Du Reponet, and you’d imagine the relatively sharp two miles around there will very much play to this horse’s strengths, particularly if the ground doesn’t get too testing.

Down Memory Lane appeals more than Mirazur West at twice the price, but You Oughta Know could be one to take a chance on once he’s finally entered up for a maiden hurdle as his bumper form is clearly red hot.

Published at 1520 GMT on 17/12/23

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