Kieran Betteley of Sky Bet and Niall O'Reilly from Paddy Power Betfair reveal their Cheltenham Festival fancies.
Who is your banker of the meeting?
Kieran Betteley, Sky Bet: I think Vauban looks very hard to beat in the Triumph Hurdle. He was a talented performer on the level in France and has transferred that ability to hurdling. He was unlucky not to get off to a winning start at Punchestown over Christmas where he jumped a little novicey throughout and made a crucial error at the last. The winner that day (Pied Piper) looks the chief threat in the Triumph having impressed at Cheltenham last time out, but I strongly believe Vauban will come out on top in this rematch. He’s clearly held in the highest regard by Willie Mullins having been pitched straight into the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile when winning at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. He can emulate Quilixios who went on to follow up at Cheltenham after winning at Leopardstown.
Niall O'Reilly, Paddy Power/Betfair: I’m struggling to pick just one, so I’ll go with the Cheveley Park double of Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore and Allaho in the Ryanair. Both boast excellent credentials in two of the weakest graded races run this week, so I find it difficult to see either beaten.
Which short-price favourites do you think look vulnerable?
KB: Sir Gerhard has done very little wrong so far, but out of all the shorter priced selections across the week I think he could prove vulnerable in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle on Wednesday. He was perhaps a little fortunate to win last year’s Champion Bumper having benefitted from a superb Rachael Blackmore ride and was in-turn beaten by Kilcruit at Punchestown the following month. He didn’t have to beat much on his hurdles debut on Boxing Day, and followed that up with a Grade 1 win at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. However, I wouldn’t rate that form as particularly strong. The runner-up Three Stripe Life and the third Colonel Mustard have shown limitations, and I’d be slightly concerned he was a little more workmanlike than I expected. A combination of that, the step up in trip and his questionable jumping last time out, leave him with a few more questions to answer than some of the other shorter-priced favourites across the week.
No'R: Facile Vega is one that probably got quite short after a breath-taking display at Dublin Racing Festival, and he’s one I’d be keen to take on at current prices as he faces very strong opposition in the form of American Mike. Bravemansgame is another I’d be keen to take on. He’s been brilliant over fences, though I’m not sure he’s the strongest stayer and the Brown Advisory can be a gruelling contest.
Which horse could you see outrunning their odds in a graded race?
KB: Nicky Henderson has made no secret that I Am Maximus is a horse he holds in very high regard. He was put in the same bracket as the likes of Jonbon in stable tours at the start of the season, and, although he’s been a little more of a slow-burner, he could yet justify his trainer's confidence. He improved on the bare form of his first two hurdle efforts in a Listed event at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day when finishing runner up to the very talented Hillcrest. That horse is likely to go off favourite for the Albert Bartlett on Friday, so I think I Am Maximus has been completed overlooked in the market for the Ballymore where he’s as big as 18/1 NRNB. It doesn’t look a vintage renewal, so I’d be disappointed if he can’t be involved at an each-way price. He has the potential option of running in the Coral Cup off a lenient looking handicap mark of 134, however Henderson has suggested a preference is to run in the Ballymore.
No'R: In the Brown Advisory I thought Beacon Edge was an interesting outsider. He has stamina in abundance and shaped very well in the Stayers' Hurdle last year, so you know the track holds no concerns. His jumping has let him down on occasions, though if he can stay in the race until late there won’t be many finishing stronger than him.
Who is your biggest fancy in the handicaps?
KB: It’s boring, it’s unoriginal and it won’t get anyone rich, but very rarely has the Willie Mullins yard given off such confident vibes on a handicapper as they have with the completely unexposed juvenile Gaelic Warrior. The cliché 'graded horse in a handicap' is a term which seems to get banded round at every Cheltenham preview event but this French recruit could be just that off an opening mark of 129. His form from his last run at Auteuil appears to stack up, with the horse which finished one spot behind him in fourth (Kyrov) subsequently winning a Grade 1 in November. Given he was touted as a potential Sky Bet Supreme horse for next season, it will be disappointing if he can’t emulate Diego Du Charmil who managed to land this race on his first start over from France.
No'R: Adamantly Chosen looks to have been let in lightly in the Martin Pipe. He fits the bill of recent winners being unexposed and trained by Willie Mullins, and having seen the Imperial Cup at the weekend I wouldn’t be fearing the British challenge.
Is there a piece of form you think looks especially strong or weak?
KB: A piece of form I’m really not keen on is the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle from the Dublin Racing Festival. I believe the Irish staying novice hurdlers, such as Minella Cocooner and Hollow Games, look much of a muchness, which also wouldn’t inspire confidence behind the likes of Ginto. All those horses will be prominent in markets for the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett and I’ll be readily opposing them.
No'R: It’s obvious, but Sir Gerhard’s race at the Dublin Racing festival looks like strong form. I think the second Three Stripe Life will follow him home in the Ballymore, while Colonel Mustard could run a big race in the County Hurdle, if he takes up that engagement.
Which horse is the firm's biggest ante-post liability?
KB: Our Money Back As Cash If You Lose offer in the Sky Bet Supreme is likely to be very popular. Jonbon has been a big ante-post loser ever since being inserted into the betting as a 33/1 chance back in February of 2021 and we’d expect him to be very popular in our Money Back book, too. He’ll be one we’d like to avoid in order to get the week off to as good a start as possible. Of the rest, Bob Olinger would be a bad result in the Turners Novices' Chase having been such an impressive winner of the Ballymore last year. A seemingly late change of plan means Galopin Des Champs would be a great result in the race for us from an ante-post perspective.
No'R: Jonbon. He was a bit of a talking horse in the early life cycle of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle market and he’s one we laid at bigger prices. We also took a position against him post Ascot, so it’s not a position we’re uncomfortable with.
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