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Cheltenham Festival tips: Antepost preview & recommended bets for 2023 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
The entries for the novice hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival were released this week - our man focuses on the Sky Bet Supreme.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt e.w. Chasing Fire in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
You can’t shy away from one horse at Cheltenham and while I’ve very little to offer when it comes to why Facile Vega won’t simply saunter to success in the 2023 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on March 14, I can’t be alone in being on the lookout for a spot of early each-way value in the Festival opener.
There are two scenarios in which that may arise: firstly, the odds-on favourite still has a Grade 1 assignment at the Dublin Racing Festival to negotiate prior to having his attentions turned back to Cheltenham, where he won the Champion Bumper last year, while there’s also a chance we could see something emerge from elsewhere over the next month or so.
Granted, if Facile Vega is beaten in Leopardstown’s Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle then whatever manages to lower his famous colours will inevitably become a whole lot shorter for the Supreme and the current second-favourites for that race are stablemate Impaire Et Passe and the fascinating High Definition.
Impaire Et Passe appears to have had his trial run now and came through the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer in tremendous style, though the vibes from connections suggest a shot at the Ballymore may be more likely at Cheltenham and that makes sense as you clearly need a decent turn of foot for that race as well.
The now Joseph O’Brien-trained (formerly with his father, Aidan, on the Flat) High Definition had flattered to deceive on the level after a really promising start as a juvenile, but his jumping was sound first time out at Leopardstown over Christmas and he had his rivals strung out almost the length of the home straight by the time he was bypassing the final flight.
Henry De Bromhead’s Inthepocket is another potential shortener and it’s no surprise to see him angling towards a drop back in trip at the DRF, having been value for more than the bare margin (neck) in Naas’s 2m4f Grade 2 in December. He idled on hitting the front after travelling well and displaying decent speed when asked to quicken.
You’re going back to Captain Cee Bee (2008) for JP McManus’s last Sky Bet Supreme winner, but he tends to have something representing in the green and gold and it’ll be interesting to see if this horse goes as the McManus team looks a little light in the novice hurdle ranks overall, other than possible Albert Bartlett hope Indiana Dream.
The unbeaten Marine Nationale is not entered at Leopardstown and who could blame Barry Connell for ducking a pre-Cheltenham dust-up with Facile Vega in a bid to keep the dream alive?
He beat subsequent Lawlor’s of Naas one-two Champ Kiely and Irish Point when winning the Royal Bond, though it’s worth stressing the Fairyhouse third Ashroe Diamond got closer to him than he did Facile Vega at Leopardstown. I can certainly leave Marine Nationale well alone at just 9/2.
Elsewhere in Ireland, the same yard as the favourite, Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior may end up being kept fresh for the County Hurdle and Coral Cup respectively, though the latter is already bordering on top-class and Mullins stated at the start of the season that the Ballymore could be his big target this time having just missed in the Boodles last year.
There’s a lot of guesswork involved as usual with the Closutton squad but I think we can leave them out of the Supreme picture for the time being, while the best two-mile novice in Britain is probably Luccia, who will be kept to her own sex and the relative luxury of the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2m1f).
The home team – according to the market at least – instead looks to be headed by Tahmuras and Rare Edition for Paul Nicholls and Charlie Longsdon respectively.
Granted, no one can deny Tahmuras is a Grade 1 winner but the Tolworth fell apart after Authorised Speed’s early errors and third-favourite Arctic Bresil failed to finish, so the (138-rated) winner still has it to prove at elite level. I wouldn’t be too sure Nicholls will even look to aim him at the Supreme – his four runners in the race over the last decade having ended up ninth, ninth, 11th and pulled-up.
Longsdon has never had a Cheltenham Festival winner at all so that has to be factored in despite the fact some of his horses have improved massively over the last 18 months and the yard is evidently in a very good place at the moment.
I’d be slightly concerned about Rare Edition’s jumping in a race of this nature, though, as he tends to spend a bit long in the air. He's a brother to Grade 2-winning novice chaser Pencilfulloflead and looks a cracking prospect for fences next year, whatever happens over the rest of the current campaign.
Due to the recent cancellations, there aren’t many recognised trials left in Britain but there’s still the Dovecote at Kempton (February 25) and before that Huntingdon’s Sidney Banks (February 9), which threw up subsequent Supreme hero Shishkin three seasons ago and could be a really informative race again this year.
There’s definitely a chance something puts their hand up for Cheltenham honours and we could see Rare Edition have his final prep there, but he won’t have it all his own way with Luccia’s Nicky Henderson stablemate Attaca (only entered in the Ballymore at the Festival) reportedly on course and Olly Murphy’s CHASING FIRE possibly heading that way now too.
A small part of me was relieved to see Haydock fail to beat the frost last weekend as I was preparing to watch Chasing Fire from behind the sofa.
He’s looked really promising in a couple of starts this season, both wins coming on good to soft ground around Market Rasen, and while as excited as anyone to see how he fared up in class for the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main, a tough race on heavy going surely wouldn’t have see him in his best light - nor done his potential Supreme claims any good. The Festival opener is his only option at Cheltenham as he’s not entered in anything else and there won’t be time to qualify for one of the handicaps with a fourth start over timber.
Murphy admitted to having some concerns regarding Haydock when speaking on last week’s Get Stuck In show, but the horse was declared so maybe connections were willing to roll the dice in the conditions.
If he did go to Huntingdon (he has an entry at Wincanton on Thursday so he could go there) it is rarely that bad in terms of the ground and although it’s a shade further at two miles, three and a half furlongs, the Sidney Banks generally places emphasis on speed as it’s such a flat track.
Unlike Rare Edition, Chasing Fire is really efficient at his hurdles and although you can throw stones at the bare form of his minor-race wins at the Lincolnshire track before the turn of the year (replay below), he couldn’t have done much more and there’s definitely a bit of substance to his taking bumper win at Wetherby from last season.
The runner-up from that race won his next three starts and third Hitching Jacking won for the second time over hurdles at Wetherby just a couple of weeks ago. He’s now rated 128 and Chasing Fire looked in a different league altogether, especially considering it was his debut.
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His half-brother Karpino was a Group 2 winner on the flat and his dam’s sister won the Leger so it’s obvious he’s got a hint of the family class and, combined with the fluent jumping, it’s hoped he could go a fair way in this game – maybe even somewhere close to the top.
As for staking, I can’t in good conscience put up what I believe to be a palpable error but it looks like bet365 have left him at 25s in their ‘betting without Facile Vega market’, while he’s 10s and 12s with Paddy Power, Betfair and Sky Bet. Good luck however you choose to play but I’m happy to back him each-way in the hope he could at least give the Mullins hot-pot something to think about.
Published at 1245 GMT on 29/01/23
Antepost Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt e.w. Chasing Fire in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Banbridge in Sporting Life Arkle at 25/1
1pt win Sandor Clegane in Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at 12/1
1pt win Ballygriffincottage in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 16/1
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