I unashamedly find it quite hard to take the plunge when it comes to antepost bets on the Cheltenham Festival. If you believe what you read elsewhere then the real value is only on offer around September/October time the previous year and there is, of course, a modicum of truth in that.
Those speculative bets are almost entirely built out of (educated) guesswork, though, and I rather like having the first half of the campaign in the locker before looking ahead to the spring with my punting cap on. And let’s face it, with horses already booked in for flu jabs and more snow and frost no doubt on the way over the next couple of months, when’s the next time we’ll see another top-notcher out on the racecourse?
The Dublin Racing Festival has become an annual breeding ground for the next wave of Cheltenham novices, but Leopardstown isn’t for everyone and, regardless of underfoot conditions there this February, most of the established stars will now be kept in their bubble-wrap for March, something Henry De Bromhead admitted he was leaning towards with Savills Chase winner Minella Indo after he recorded his first win since the 2021 Gold Cup in Tramore’s New Year’s Day highlight.
It was great to see the popular Minella Indo back in the winners’ enclosure, especially as it understandably meant so much to his trainer, but it was wrong of bookmakers to cut his price for the Gold Cup simply for passing the post in front, while at the same time leaving runner-up STATTLER unchanged at a general 14/1.
Stattler was by some way the best horse in the Savills – a race his trainer used as a fruitful stepping-stone for Al Boum Photo don’t forget - and in almost successfully conceding 8lb to the 2021 winner and 2022 runner-up, he seriously enhanced his own Gold Cup claims for this year.
Having raced only three times as a novice last term and won a rather depleted, six-runner National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham before being put away for the summer, Stattler was previously all about potential - that’s no longer the case.
Sunday's Savills effort (replay below), over a trip precisely one mile shorter than his previous race, was another big step forward in pure form terms and the eight-year-old covered more ground than the winner after he challenged three wide on the turn towards the second-last fence. His last jump was one of his best and there was loads to like about the way he stayed on, albeit beaten a neck by a battle-hardened rival two years his senior.
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The elephant in the room when it comes to Cheltenham’s biggest event is obviously Willie Mullins stablemate Galopin Des Champs, but what can you say about him other than he looks ludicrously short for a horse yet to run in a chase over a trip beyond the extended two miles and five furlongs around Leopardstown.
Perhaps he is a genuine freak of nature (his pedigree would indicate intermediate distances would be as far as he wants to go) as he did win over three miles in a Grade One at Punchestown during his novice hurdling days, but three and a quarter around Cheltenham against proven Gold Cup horses - jumping at Gold Cup pace - poses a different question.
Could he actually be too quick for this race? There’s no question Galopin Des Champs would take a Ryanair Chase field apart should Willie Mullins be tempted down that more simple route instead, though it seems highly unlikely from everything the trainer has suggested to this point.
I'm certainly not betting on the favourite being rerouted, and perhaps he’ll meet Stattler in the Irish Gold Cup at the DRF en route to Cheltenham, but plans can change almost overnight (with any trainer) and regardless of whether Galopin Des Champs sticks to what seems like plan A right now, the strong-travelling and stamina-laden Stattler is the better bet at the odds.
Elsewhere in Ireland, Noble Yeats looks about the right price, if not a fraction too short, following his Many Clouds Chase success, likewise Conflated who didn’t have much to beat at Leopardstown over Christmas. There’s a huge question mark over the reigning champ A Plus Tard and I don’t think I’d be sucked into backing Hewick at double his current 25/1.
As for the British runners, who have on the whole come up well short for the past four seasons, L’Homme Presse appeals slightly more than Kempton hero Bravemansgame and Betfair Chase winner Protektorat, though the latter would be a massive each-way player on genuinely testing ground.
L’Homme Presse did an awful lot wrong in the King George and was still booked for a creditable second before unshipping Charlie Deutsch at the last. Cheltenham will be a more suitable configuration for Venetia Williams’ horse, although – like Protektorat – he’ll likely need a wet end to Festival week for him to be seen at his absolute best. He’s generally 7/1 and there’s not much juice in that price at present.
Mullins It Over Podcast - Festive reflections from Patrick Mullins
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