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Cheltenham Festival tips: Antepost preview & recommended bets for 2023 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
The Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is in our expert's sights in his latest antepost look at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Sandor Clegane in Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at 12/1 (General)
It’s widely accepted that antepost betting at Cheltenham has become more and more difficult in recent seasons and – as has been the case over the past couple of years in fairness - I’m certainly keen to avoid being knee-deep in speculative wagers long before the tapes go up for the Sky Bet Supreme.
Last year’s ‘portfolio’ (not an attractive expression, I must admit, but you catch my drift) ultimately turned over a small profit due to one long-range, each-way interest yielding a reasonable return.
The each-way bet in question, regular readers may recall, was Funambule Sivola for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 50/1. And having recently regaled a colleague with the full story I found myself looking back on how that horse’s campaign panned out between my tipping him and the Wednesday feature at the Festival, and what I could learn from those particular events.
Firstly, Funambule Sivola wasn’t a strong fancy by any means, but he'd shown enough in two starts over longer distances at Huntingdon and Cheltenham around the turn of the year to suggest that he might appreciate the drop back to a strongly-run two miles. The horse duly did, and he won the often-informative handicap at Doncaster’s late-January meeting before following up in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.
So having won not one but two prep races in the lead-up to Cheltenham, plus the ground seemingly coming in his favour, you’d possibly have expected his price to have come crashing down, but that could not be further from the truth.
Having gleefully snaffled up the 50s in early-January, Funambule Sivola’s SP on the day was... 40/1.
To hammer home just how hard it is to find antepost value, there was a high-profile non-runner on the day of the 2022 Champion Chase (Nube Negra), the odds-on favourite pulled up, and the Willie Mullins-trained Chacun Pour Soi unseated rider. And we were still beaten into second by a facile winner in Energumene. I suppose no one ever said it would be easy.
Such is the nature of these top Festival races and having thumbed through the entries for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Ryanair Chase that were released this week (I kicked off the 2023 series with an early look at the Gold Cup a fortnight ago), I came to the conclusion that there just wasn’t another bet to be had at current odds.
That’s not to say those races won’t be revisited in the coming weeks, with Klassical Dream admittedly quite tempting around 8/1 for the Stayers', but chances are any championship-race value may only emerge until after the final declarations. So over the next couple of weeks I’m keen to focus on the novices, and horses who are hopefully going to genuinely enhance their claims between now and the middle of March.
Last week’s selection Ballygriffincottage (Brown Advisory) has been rerouted to Lingfield next weekend so I’m obviously looking forward to him, but the Dublin Racing Festival is going to be the meeting that has the most significant impact on the markets between now and the Festival.
Last year, Honeysuckle, Sir Gerhard, Facile Vega, Delta Work and Vauban were the Cheltenham winners who ran at Leopardstown in February en route and it’s not like any of those five were being missed in the betting beforehand (four of them ultimately doing the double), but there are a couple of young hurdlers who could spring to prominence at the DRF this time around, and they appear to be on course for the same race.
The first is Barry Connell’s Good Land, stablemate of Sky Bet Supreme hope Marine Nationale. Good Land hasn’t achieved the same level of form as that horse just yet, but he’s only run in a couple of maidens so hasn’t really had the opportunity.
The two maiden runs came as a result of him unseating Michael O’Sullivan first time up at Fairyhouse (first flight) in early-December, but he was seriously impressive at Leopardstown in a traditionally warm race later last month, after which he was introduced into the betting for both the Ballymore and the Albert Barlett.
No doubt Leopardstown’s Grade 1 ‘Nathaniel Lacy & Partners’ Novice Hurdle over two and three-quarter miles will reveal more, but he looks quite pacy and will meet some strong stayers in that and, providing there’s some juice in the ground, surely SANDOR CLEGANE will be among them.
Paul Nolan’s horse was classy in his bumper days and has previous at the DRF too having followed home Facile Vega in the Grade 2 Goffs Future Stars here last February. Granted, he followed him at a respectful distance but the runner-up in turn came eight lengths clear of the third and he obviously bumped into a bit of a machine – and a horse I’m really struggling to see beaten in the Cheltenham curtain-raiser.
Sandor Clegane was beaten much further by Willie Mullins' star at Punchestown in April but that wasn't his true running and he's made a bright start over hurdles this year, building on a (seemingly much-needed) debut second over two miles to win as he liked stepped up to the extended two miles and five furlongs at Punchestown.
Nolan won the ‘Nathaniel Lacy’ with Latest Exhibition who went on to be narrowly denied by Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett and this latest prospect, who is reportedly owned by a number of the same people despite the different silks, has trodden a similar path in that they were both introduced to hurdles at Galway, presumably to help sharpen them up physically as well as mentally.
Sandor Clegane travels well for such a big unit and his jumping was superb at Punchestown last time, when going on soon after halfway and never looking in any danger.
He appears to be sitting on a huge run at Leopardstown next month and – unlike Funambule Sivola from last year - if all goes to plan in his trial this horse will be very well-fancied for Cheltenham.
The step up to three miles in March looks right in his wheelhouse on pedigree as he’s by Fame And Glory, sire of Home By The Lee, Commander Of Fleet and 2022 Albert Bartlett winner The Nice Guy among other smart stayers, while the timing looks ideal to get him on side at the generally available 12/1 this week.
Published at 1700 GMT on 14/01/23
Antepost Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Sandor Clegane in Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at 12/1
1pt win Ballygriffincottage in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 16/1
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