Cheltenham Festival timing analysis | Review of the week

Crowding, unnecessary watering and £7 for a pint of Guinness seemed to be the three main Cheltenham gripes on my social media feed last week, but there can be no quibbling with the quality of the racing, even if numbers were a bit thin in some of the races.

Rarely can the meeting have got off to such an explosive start with the headline timefigure on the opening day - and for some the performance of the week - being returned in the very first race, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Constitution Hill might have divided opinion pre-race as to his ability, but he can have left no-one in doubt afterwards that he is not only a top-class novice hurdler (the best in Timeform’s history) but a top-class hurdler outright.

Indeed, Constitution Hill's 177 Timeform performance rating was the highest achieved over hurdles at the Festival this century - Baracouda returned a 173 in the 2003 Stayers’ - while his 178 timefigure is easily the highest in the history of the Supreme since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps (in 2015) and is 10 lb higher than the next best Festival timefigure which was posted by Thistlecrack in 2016 in the Stayers' Hurdle (then known as the World Hurdle).

I’ve said it before but if ever there was a horse going into this Festival who validated the usefulness of timing analysis over jumps then Constitution Hill was that horse. ‘More style than substance’ was a line I read or heard repeated more than once in the week leading up to the Supreme whereas, in reality, it was more accurately ‘plenty of style and double the substance’.

After his Sandown debut I wrote in this column ‘If there was a Festival-winning performance on the card, however, it might well have come from Constitution Hill in the opening novice hurdle. His trainer Nicky Henderson has another strong contender for the Supreme in Jonbon, of course, but while he has a ‘game in hand’ so to speak Constitution Hill already has the points in the bag and goal difference too on account of a 142 timefigure and a finishing sectional from two out that was over three seconds faster than any of the other later hurdles winners managed over the same trip (mindful the ground had probably deteriorated by the final race) and over two seconds quicker from the final flight despite his own race being run at a much faster pace and in a much faster overall time than either of those two contests…. there was little to quibble about here running clean away from a horse to whom Timeform had awarded a large P after an impressive winning debut in a manner reminiscent of Shishkin’s win at Newbury ahead of his Supreme victory.’

Timeform no longer offers a sectional service over jumps but the upgrades used to help inform timefigures and ratings are still in use internally and his, recorded from three out (the usual distance used over hurdles) was 6 lb that day, effectively raising his timefigure combination to 148. Although the upgrade was calculated from three out, Constitution Hill was still on the bridle at the last before quickening clean away in a fashion you rarely see over jumps (unless you’re A Plus Tard) and it wouldn’t have taken an Einstein or Newton to conclude that any upgrade he was awarded would have been a very conservative minimum.

Constitution Hill wasn’t quite so spectacular in much more demanding conditions in the Tolworth but a 25 lb upgrade on top of a 129 timefigure was still a strong indication a much better performance was in the offing under faster conditions, and the decent pace set by the unfortunate Dysart Dynamo thankfully allowed him to exhibit fully his phenomenal ability.

So, if Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill should clash at Punchestown, what might we expect? Firstly, I very much doubt the clash will go ahead this year, not because Constitution Hill’s trainer Nicky Henderson is loath to send much over to Ireland these days but more because his horse is still in his mind very much a novice.

Beyond that, though, I’d be wary of falling into the trap that some have that Honeysuckle ‘hasn’t beaten much’ and is only the reigning Champion Hurdler because she’s been fortunate to be in her prime at a time when the current batch of two-mile hurdlers is weak historically. Honeysuckle’s time in winning the Champion Hurdle was over five and a half seconds slower than the Supreme but that’s only because the early gallop was much stronger in the Supreme and not any shortcoming on her own part. She ran the last half-mile faster according to the Course Track sectionals, as might have been expected, but given the scenario her 131 timefigure (3 lb upgrade, Constitution Hill had a 1 lb upgrade) was unsurprisingly ordinary.

It should not be forgotten that Honeysuckle is able to run much faster if the occasion demands it - her 164 timefigure (no upgrade) when settling the 2021 Champion Hurdle in a matter of strides is confirmation of that - and I’d be amazed if any horse in training could get her out of her comfort zone well before the finish. Circumstance counts for plenty in horseracing and sometimes overrides all other factors. Throw in her 7 lb mares' allowance and the big advantage Blackmore would have over De Boinville given her knowledge of Punchestown then, top-class though Constitution Hill is, I’d say it would be a brave stance backing the Supreme winner at odds-on

The same afternoon Edwardstone continued his fine run over fences by landing the Sporting Life Arkle by just over four lengths from the supplemented Irish challenger Gabynako in a timefigure of 145, a stone or so below the 160s he posted on his way there. Returning timefigures on a day when one of the distances is a rarely-used one (in this instance the three and three quarter miles over which the National Hunt Challenge Chase was run) can be tricky, even with the assistance of sectional pars, and as such I’d be inclined towards the view that Edwardstone’s timefigure on the day was a bare minimum and Stattler’s 132 was a maximum.

It was a shame that the race everyone was looking forward to, the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, turned out to be a non-event after Shishkin pulled up around halfway and Chacun Pour Soi once again seemed to get caught out by fences coming thicker and faster than he is used to in Ireland. All the same, take nothing away from Energumene who posted a 174 timefigure which was only 3 lb less than he had run in the Clarence House, suggesting both Shishkin and Chacun Pour Soi would have had to be on their game to have trumped him on the day.

There is a big difference between time-based ‘heavy ground’ and Nicky Henderson ‘heavy ground’ and I wouldn’t be quick to put Shishkin’s effort (or that of Stage Star in the earlier Ballymore come to that, despite Cobden’s assertions) down solely to underfoot conditions which looked soft after the combination of watering and natural rainfall but didn’t seem unduly tiring.

L’Homme Presse took advantage of the late defection of Bravemansgame (apparently because of the ground) to land a mostly all-the-way win in the Brown Advisory in a 138 timefigure that reflected a very well controlled front-running ride, though with Fury Road a late non-runner and Farouk d’Alene a late faller he probably didn’t need to show the usual level of form required to win this race to see off the still-work-in-progress Ahoy Senor and the underachieving Gaillard Du Mesnil.

Sir Gerhard showed that it was the right decision to swerve Constitution Hill by making light work of some weaker pickings in the Ballymore. They didn’t go a thunderous gallop by any means and in winning in a 137 timefigure he was more workmanlike than impressive to my eyes. Stage Star pulled too hard and his tame performance seemed to sum up Paul Nicholls’ week.

It’s a toss-up as to who is the best chaser in training right now and Allaho threw his hat into the ring once again with a comprehensive win in the Ryanair Chase for the second year running. His 179 timefigure was the same as he posted in 2021 and, as then, he never looked in any trouble, albeit helped by Conflated (about whom the jury is still out) departing and Shan Blue not giving his running.

The biggest danger next season to Allaho over what is still seen as an intermediate trip and not a championship distance in its own right will surely come from his stable-companion Galopin Des Champs, assuming the last-fence Turners faller is kept to two and a half miles. He had the Turners in his pocket when stumbling on landing after jumping the last, but a more patient ride than expected on Bob Olinger (who surely wasn’t right given how he hobbled home) gifted him an open goal and it’s a measure of how steadily Galopin Des Champs was able to dictate that Bob Olinger registered only a 114 timefigure.

Flooring Porter retained his Stayers’ Hurdle crown in a 153 timefigure. Not being eyeballed is an obvious advantage to a front-runner but it would be a mistake to think that Flooring Porter had it easy in front given his timefigure, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that nothing threatened to claw him back last year when he went pillar-to-post in 163. On the clock he’s undoubtedly the best staying hurdler in training, superbly efficient over his hurdles, and had Klassical Dream not pinched such a big start on him at Leopardstown over Christmas then his status as the divisional leader wouldn’t be in any doubt.

Following a 178 on the clock by Constitution Hill and a 179 by Allaho the mounting ‘darts’ atmosphere that began to flood the course by the end of the final afternoon would have been entirely appropriate had A Plus Tard checked out with ‘one hundred and eighty’ but it wasn’t to be, and he had to settle for a 178 in the Gold Cup.

For me, his win was the highlight of the week and there can surely be little doubt he is out on his own among staying chasers (those who race over three miles or more) when conditions call for a turn of speed. That 178 timefigure comes with a 5 lb upgrade, taking him to 183 combined, and, much like Constitution Hill’s winning debut at Sandown, he wasn’t asked to quicken away until after the final obstacle leaving open the possibility of an even higher figure another day.

Vauban was best equipped for the test of speed that became the Triumph Hurdle (winning timefigure 107) but the Albert Bartlett (which Hillcrest would have been better sidestepping and waiting for Aintree instead after his lung-bursting effort in heavy conditions at Haydock three weeks previously) developed into a searching test that went to The Nice Guy in a well-up-to-standard 148 timefigure. He looks a grand chasing prospect for next season.

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