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Cheltenham Festival: Sir Gerhard, Constitution Hill and Jonbon in hot Sky Bet Supreme market
Last week's action proved very significant for one race at the Cheltenham Festival, where we now have a new favourite.
Constitution Hill's 12-length demolition of Jetoile in the Grade One Unibet Tolworth Hurdle propelled him to the head of the market for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, replacing Nicky Henderson stablemate Jonbon.
The sponsors go 2/1 about the Sandown winner and 9/4 JP McManus' horse, Betfair and Paddy Power 9/4 and 3/1 respectively.
The only one other horse at a single-figure price is the Willie Mullins-trained Sir Gerhard, winner of last year's Weatherbys Champion Bumper and off the mark at the first attempt over timber at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He is 5/1 with all three firms.
So the big question - right now - is will Henderson run both in the same race at Cheltenham?
In the immediate aftermath of Saturday's race he said: "At the moment, they both look like two-milers and if we had any strength this year, it would be in the novice hurdlers. And there are a few more, to be fair. I Am Maximus wasn’t bad the other day, although he got beat – and he is going to be a good horse. There is Balco Coastal and Broomfield Burg and all sorts of others lurking around in there.
"Is there a possibility they split up? I don’t know. It is hard to tell. If you walked into Seven Barrows tomorrow morning, I would be surprised if you didn’t get a 50-50. There are 70 odd people and they are split."
The Sandown romp might have bought Constitution Hill a direct ticket to Cheltenham - but Jonbon, well he will run again before March.
"Jonbon we are toying with either the Rossington Main at Haydock or the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown – I’d like to get another run into Jonbon. Whether we get another run into Constitution Hill – I just said to Nico, there are only two questions: ‘Does he need any more than two miles?’ ‘No’. Does he need to run again?’ ‘Not necessarily’," Henderson explained.
“They were competitive races – he hasn’t had big fields. Jonbon will run again. You could go as far as the Dovecote, but those are the only three options you can come up with."
Sir Gerhard is set to run too at the Dublin Racing Festival, Mighty Potter for Gordon Elliott is already a Grade One winner and a potential shortener, although he has the Ballymore as an obvious alternative.
For the sponsors, any late springers for the race certainly look likely to be trained in Ireland.
Sky Bet's Head of Sports PR Michael Shinners said: "Constitution Hill stamped his authority and class on the Tolworth at Sandown. On the back of that performance he is now our clear 2/1 favourite. Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand with Jonbon second in the market. If there is to be a market mover it looks sure to come from across the Irish Sea and is very likely to come from the Willie Mullins stable.
"Sir Gerhard was impressive over Christmas and as a previous Festival winner is an obvious candidate. The Dublin Racing Festival will probably be the final piece in the betting jigsaw, with a couple of other Mullins horses in the shape of El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo looking to throw their hat into the ring."
As things stand we look in the unusual position - well for the last 14 months at least - of having a couple of British-trained shorties for a Grade One prize at the Festival.
Betfair's Barry Orr said: "Off the back of a convincing win in the Tolworth, Constitution Hill usurped his stablemate, Jonbon, at the head of the Supreme betting.
"Going into the race Jonbon was 5/2 and Constitution Hill was available at 7/2, but immediate reaction to the win saw Constitution Hill go 9/4 favourite and Jonbon 3/1. He still has to prove he is as effective on good ground as we now know he is on soft, but punters seem to think he will be."
Paddy Power's Paul Binfield added: "Constitution Hill has usurped stable companion Jonbon at the front of the market and is now 9/4 favourite after that almighty performance on the Esher slopes.
"Jonbon is out to 3/1 (from 9/4), but with Nicky Henderson stating that he "wouldn’t want to split them", he could represent a bit of value as, at this stage, they both look like lining up for the Festival opener.
“However, after last year you certainly can’t rule out the Irish in any contest and Sir Gerhard is lurking in the wings at 5/1 and we’ll probably learn more about the impressive Leopardstown maiden winner at the Dublin Racing Festival next month."