Cheltenham Festival preview: Graham Cunningham view and tips

Emily points the way as the thing with feathers perches again

Emily Dickinson did a fair job of defining Cheltenham fever way before the Festival came into being by stating: “March is the month of expectation, the things we do not know.”

And Dickinson, the reclusive American poet rather than the Ballydoyle mudlark, foretold the perennial Preview circuit in the very same verse by saying “persons of prognostication are coming now.”

Expectation is (almost) as high as ever as the 2024 Festival beckons; things we do not know could fill a book; and persons of prognostication have been parroting away for months.

But Dickinson’s most famous poem begins with an equally appropriate Cheltenham line.

“Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul.”

It’s a sentiment that sums up pre-Festival anticipation perfectly. And, if you can bear one more person prognosticating, then these hopes (and fears) might prove of interest.

Realism re the Mullins massive

You’ll read and hear about a lot of horses who are value alternatives to Willie’s stars this week but free thinking doesn’t come cheap when Closutton play their aces.

Let’s use 6-4 or shorter as the mark of a so-called Festival banker. Mullins has had the occasional reverse at skinny odds in recent years, notably Chacun Pour Soi at 8-13 in the 2021 Champion Chase, but it looks like he might be getting the hang of this banker lark.

Put simply, WPM has saddled eight horses who have gone off at 6-4 or shorter in Grade 1 company at the last two Festivals.

Seven of them – namely Sir Gerhard (8-11), Allaho (4-7), Vauban (6-4), El Fabiolo (11-10), Energumene (6-5), Lossiemouth (11-8) and Galopin des Champs (7-5) saluted by a combined total of over 40 lengths.

And the other one was Galopin (5-6), who was about to pulverise Bob Olinger when he crumpled on landing over the last in the 2022 Turners!

Take that to the Bank

True, a two-year sample comprising eight runs is hardly definitive but what price the Mullins bankers extending their dominance well into the 2024 Festival?

State Man‘s metronomic ability to churn out high-class figures makes him the shortest priced favourite of the week in the Champion Hurdle, while those who think Lossiemouth is a suspect stayer in the Mares’ Hurdle are watching a different filly than the one I’m seeing.

Ballyburn’s commanding G1 Leopardstown win suggests those who take him on could be dead in the water after Wednesday’s Gallagher, while Fact To File looks a star on the rise in the Brown Advisory and El Fabiolo’s destructive power holds the key to round three of his ongoing battle with Jonbon in the Champion Chase.

Thursday looks a quiet day for Mullins bankers but Galopin des Champs will be the headline act when he bids to join the back-to-back Gold Cup club on Friday and, although the Mares’ Chase isn’t a G1, Dinoblue is another name for the potential banker list.

You may see things differently and I have no problem with anyone who says they don’t head to the Festival to unload at skinny prices.

I played in that band myself for long enough but you can only react to evidence in front of you – and this year’s evidence suggests that WP Mullins might just be about to play the most powerful G1 hand in Festival history.

WTF!

Some value in the ‘Betting Without’ markets

It looks like around ten of next week’s 28 races will have a favourite at 2-1 or shorter but there are plenty of alternative options and the Placepot and ‘Without the Favourite’ markets are well worth a gander.

The Festival Placepot pool can top £2m on a good day and it proved volatile last year, paying a little over 50 and 20 quid on the punter friendly opening days then over 14 grand and 23 grand to the clairvoyants who cracked devilish Thursday and Friday cards.

And recent trends make intriguing reading for ‘betting without’ lists.

The market gets it spot on sometimes – witness El Fabiolo/Jonbon and Constitution Hill/State Man last year – but history shows that when skinny ‘uns salute they are often chased home by something at much longer odds.

Reasonably priced Guinness

And, with that in mind, CAPTAIN GUINNESS is very much a name to note in the ‘betting without El Fabiolo’ markets on the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Henry de Bromhead’s gelding turned in a rare clunker at Leopardstown over Christmas, pulled up with a heart issue, and a confidence boost seemed the priority when he finished a never-dangerous fourth behind the rampant El Fabiolo at the same venue on DRF weekend.

But the Captain has plenty in his favour when he returns for his fourth Festival on Wednesday.

The first visit proved luckless, brought down going well three out in the 2020 Supreme; the second produced a solid third in the 2021 Arkle after a prolonged duel with the freewheeling Allmankind laid the table for Shishkin to feast; and the third yielded a fine second in last year’s Champion Chase, no match for Energumene but well clear of the rest after trading at 2.6 when looming up to challenge on the home turn.

Bold, accurate jumping is one of Captain Guinness’s key weapons and, with Gentleman du Mee, Edwardstone and Elixir de Nutz set to make this a searching test, that asset could be particularly useful next week.

He’s very unlikely to beat a peak-form beat El Fabiolo and has a bit to find with Jonbon if Nicky Henderson’s gelding shakes off that demanding Clarence House battle.

But Captain Guinness is a solid low 160s chaser with strong Festival form who looked as good as ever when bounding away with Navan’s Fortria Chase for the second year running in November. Rachael Blackmore will surely keep him away from the early fireworks and backing him win and place at around 6-1 without the jolly makes plenty of appeal.

Say my Name, say my Name

Perhaps it’s just me but I haven’t heard much of one of the Festival’s daftest phrases this year. Maybe it’s because long-term markets are in the doldrums or maybe people have realised that flagging up your “ante post portfolio” makes you sound a bit of a pillock.

Either way, I doubt I’m alone swerving a raft of Festival races until final decs are available these days but the smoke is gradually clearing and I’m hoping GREY DAWNING and TELLHERTHENAME can help offset heavy Guinness in a plastic glass expenses.

It’s depressing to see Britain has mustered a measly three entries for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and nominating a horse whose two hurdle wins have come in minor company at 4-11 and 1-4 as a likely longshot is based far more on feel than form.

Add in the fact that Tellherthename got stuck in the Aintree mud when I backed him for the Formby on Boxing Day and this is hardly a cast iron plunge job.

Still, Ben Pauling seems adamant that this strong-travelling gelding is something out of the ordinary and, with Ballyburn bound for the Gallagher, none of this year’s Supreme team has come close to the level normally needed to win Tuesday’s curtain raiser.

Firefox might reboot after his Naas defeat, while Mystical Power is gradually realising that he’s bred to be a star and Tullyhill is “coming all the time” according to Willie. But there are bits of 20-1 around for Tellherthename. It’s a speculator, no question, but I would kick myself all the way home if he popped up at that price without a dollar of mine on his back.

A new Dawning for the Skelton Bros

It’s a case of choose your poison for Dan Skelton when trying to pinpoint the most suitable target for his star novice chaser Grey Dawning.

Fact To File and Stay Away Fay loom if he opts for Wednesday’s Brown Advisory, while Ginny’s Destiny, Facile Vega and Iroko could form a dangerous trio in the Turners on Thursday.

Drawing firm conclusions from light Betfair markets can backfire but Dan’s ‘Road to Cheltenham’ appearance on Thursday suggested that he is clearly favouring day three for a horse who has thrived over fences, bolting up at Haydock and Warwick and looking unlucky in between when chasing home Ginny’s Destiny (conceding that rival 3lb) in a hot handicap over the Turners course and distance in December.

Skelton is 0-31 with his Festival chasers and the Turners (formerly Marsh) was notable for one of the great Cheltenham rush of blood rides when brother Harry went for home much too soon aboard Shan Blue three years ago.

But Grey Dawning is cut from finer cloth than Shan Blue and the Timeform rating (159p) he achieved when bounding clear of smart rivals over three miles at Warwick is bang on the level needed to go very close in an average Turners.

Harry’s job this time is to ensure the other Harry (Cobden) and Ginny’s Destiny don’t snag the sort of easy lead that helped Stage Star win last year’s Turners. That being so, this bold-jumping grey has the potential to break Dan’s Festival chasing duck and prove himself one of Britain’s best G1 chances of the entire week.

Recommendation - No bet

Speaking of Guinness in a plastic glass, it’s noticeable that modern day racing Press rooms contain far fewer characters who enjoy a wee dram as part of daily duties.

Gone are the days when The Sun’s Claude Duval would have a snifter or three before rattling off his purple prose and it’s probably just as well.

The reverse side of this year’s Festival Media pass suggests that Cheltenham will take a dim view of any working Press found drinking or purchasing alcohol.

I doubt the security team will be rounding up too many renegade tipplers – though the Wine Tipster could be in for a rough week - but the same small print also suggests that ‘anyone found betting whilst working will have their accreditation revoked.’

Logic suggests that can never happen. But we live in an era when sarnies are being confiscated at the gate. And, if Cheltenham do stage a PPP (Press Punting Purge), then the only people left in the sprawling Media centre by the time they run the Ultima will be the girls and boys who serve the tea.

A Reward for Industry

Reverse order is the only way to go when announcing awards and the gong for ‘Most Defensive Festival Prep’ has been hotly contested this year.

And so (cue brief rustling of envelope) here are the nominees:

In third, give it up for Willie Mullins. Lossiemouth returns with just that runaway Unibet Hurdle romp as prep for a Mares’ Hurdle bid. All is forgiven if a certain conversation leads to a Champion Swicci but, as things stand, last year’s Triumph winner is up there in the bronze position.

In second, it’s Banbridge town in the County Down. Owner Ronnie Bartlett said “we’ve had him bubbling for a while” after Joseph O’Brien’s 2022 Martin Pipe hero wore down Pic D’Orhy at Kempton. But one pre-Festival run for a healthy horse who missed last year’s Turners because of soft ground? Get on the podium, Ronnie lad.

Don’t be surprised if our bronze and silver medallists are in the mix for this coveted prize again in 2025 but, in the absence of long-term ante post jolly Constitution Hill, the MDFP award for 2024 (cue pregnant pause and drum roll) goes to Gordon Elliott and Teahupoo.

No messing around from Gordy with this lad. One spin in early December and then “straight for the Stayers’ Hurdle.” It’s an abundance of caution assisted by a powerful owner having other options for big winter prizes. But when mature jumpers with no issues head to Cheltenham after one solitary run in the current season that winter doesn’t half go slowly.

ET? I’ll be right here

Hands up if you recall the last time an Expulsion Tool was brandished in the direction of a Festival winner for causing interference.

Take a bow if you said Avro Anson – demoted for hindering fast-finishing Balasani in the 1994 Stayers’ Hurdle - but the intervening 30 years have produced a few ticklish issues for the Commissars

I don’t ask for much but, thirty years on from the Avro incident, how about a similar scenario where a big winner holds on by a short head after carrying the strong-finishing second off his line and nudging him close home?

In theory, that’s the dream scenario for those who like to get stuck in on a reversal. But all those pieces were in place when Lord Windermere hung right across the luckless On His Own a decade ago – and how the Expulsion Tool wasn’t brandished remains a mystery.

A rational response if worse comes to worst

Emotions and reactions are always heightened at the Festival.

That’s understandable – desirable in some ways -but if worse comes to worst it helps to maintain perspective. The well-worn ‘thoughts and prayers’ option seldom seems sufficient when a fatality occurs, though even that response is preferable to the Lazarus pivot whereby Tweeters are ‘devastated’ one minute and roaring home the jolly half an hour later.

And, more than ever, the strength of reaction mirrors the profile of the horse in question.

Our Conor was the last genuine A Lister killed in action at the Festival but the names of Valiramix, Gloria Victis, Rouble, Dorans Pride, Garde Champetre and Sir Erec will resonate just as clearly with many jumps fans.

It’s trite yet true to suggest that all any dangerous sport can do is to take all reasonable safety precautions and trust to luck. Cheltenham made a raft of changes in the wake of the 2018 Festival and the fatality rate for the last five years has reduced appreciably compared to the previous five-year sample.

For what it’s worth, that persuades me that the risk level remains on the right side of acceptable.

Be it a humble 100-1 shot or a decorated G1 hero with a huge public following, a loss is a loss is a loss. But celebrity is a powerful currency nowadays – and there’s no question that emotions and reactions are heightened at the Festival.

A new look Festival in 2025

What will the Festival look like this time next year?

Kevin Blake penned a barnstorming ATR piece comparing this year’s meeting to a washed-up Mike Tyson and followed up with a Twitter poll which saw over ninety per cent of almost 10,000 respondents vote for significant change ‘to increase competition and reduce ducking and diving.’

Now that’s a striking response, even allowing for the preaching to the choir factor, but we do need to look at both sides of this debate.

Would the gripe machine have gone into overdrive this year if Constitution Hill, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Allaho and a clutch of other stars had stayed healthy?

Will the recent downbeat mood persist this time next week if new and old stars serve up a Festival to savour?

And is it reasonable to think an organisation who seemed to be inclining towards a fifth day two years ago will favour a plan – let’s call it the Blake Blueprint - that would see the Gallagher, Turners, and several other high-profile contests turned into high-class handicaps?

I suspect no, no and thrice no are the likely answers to those key questions but jump racing has undergone a seismic shift in the balance of power over the last decade and that shift surely needs to be reflected in sensible changes to the Festival racing programme.

Time will tell. Cheltenham listened when fifth day feelings became clear and I sincerely hope they do so again. Because, if you’re seeking Redemption, hope isn’t just the thing with feathers. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.