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Cheltenham Festival half-term focus: Punting posers in the championship races

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Mon January 06, 2025 · 9h ago

Dave Ord and Ben Linfoot take a half-term look at the Cheltenham Festival championship races with an eye on the antepost markets.

Unibet Champion Hurdle, March 11

How does 4/5 about Constitution Hill float your boat after what we saw at Christmas?

Dave Ord: It doesn’t really. It was great to see him back at Kempton and he certainly won with authority but didn’t need to be anywhere near his brilliant best. Lossiemouth never travelled with any fluency, at a time when a few from the yard were off their game, while Burdett Road would have only been around four or five lengths off the winner but for a mistake at the last.

It’s really a question of what happens next. I’d be staggered if Constitution Hill ran again before the Festival and if he’s in the same form as at Kempton he’ll be hard to beat – if, as connections feel he might, he improves back to his very best then he’ll be impossible to beat.

But it’s an if. I don’t think Lossiemouth ran her race, the Mullins British raiders this year haven’t been firing for whatever reason, and she has the chance to get back on track in the International at Cheltenham.

Then there’s Brigtherdaysahead who will surely be Champion-bound if she runs her rivals into the ground in the Irish equivalent at the DRF. She’s a big danger as her running style would take most horses out of their comfort zone before they reach the foot of the hill.

Nico De Boinville is confident that Constitution Hill’s high cruising speed will enable him to keep tabs on her but it would make for a fascinating sight on the opening day of the Festival. No, I wouldn’t be backing the favourite at 4/5 right now. I wouldn’t be backing anything in the race full stop.

Constution Hill powers to a third Christmas Hurdle win

Ben Linfoot: First and foremost it was great to see him back. I think we all got a little bit sick of talking about him without seeing him run and while he wasn’t at his brilliant best in the Christmas Hurdle it was a perfectly good performance in the context of his well-reported setbacks and the chief opposition that was Lossiemouth.

She certainly didn’t look at her best and if she did run in the Champion Hurdle I’m sure two miles at Cheltenham will suit her better than two miles at Kempton.

Clearly, she could run in the Mares’ Hurdle, as could the main market rival to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle, Brighterdaysahead.

That clouds the picture somewhat, but the main reason for not getting too excited about odds-on quotes for Constitution Hill is the fact he has been lesser-spotted in recent seasons. He’s the one to beat in the division, but I’d rather swallow a day-of-race tax and see him get there first.

BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase, March 12

Who would you rather back at this stage – Jonbon or Willie Mullins?

DO: Jonbon.

He’s so reliable, will run to a Timeform performance figure of around 170 and I think that will suffice this time around.

Gaelic Warrior needs to come forward a tonne from his return at Leopardstown, El Fabiolo might be straight to Cheltenham after a small setback earlier in the season and for all it was great to see Energumene back with a win in the Hilly Way, it was some way below his best and at the age of 11 he’s attempting to regain his title.

Moscow Flyer was the last horse of that age to do so and while a peak Energumene could have the legs of Jonbon, I don’t think the 2024 model will.

Jonbon is too good for his Tingle Creek rivals

BL: Jonbon has done nothing wrong in two starts this season so he’s an understandable favourite for the Champion Chase but there’s a strong feeling we haven’t seen the best of the Willie Mullins two-mile chasers so far this campaign.

El Fabiolo will be on a retrieval mission when he returns but at his best he’s a player while Energumene made a pleasing return at Cork for all that he’ll have to improve from that to get the better of a peak Jonbon in March.

The interesting one from Closutton is arguably the Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior, whose Leopardstown woes continued at Christmas. His second in the Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase is a world away from what’s required at Cheltenham, but on his Arkle form he’s a potent threat and considering that alone I’d rather trust Mullins than Jonbon to get it right on the big day in this division.

Ryanair Chase, March 13

Lots to ponder in the Ryanair Chase, is there an antepost angle into the race?

DO: A game of Guess Who – turns up – in this one. Banbridge was good in the King George but is very ground dependent so you wouldn’t be in a rush to back him ante-post for any race. Il Est Francais is being considered for this seemingly and if gets into the same rhythm as he did at Kempton he’d take a bit of catching but he’s unproven on undulating tracks and other races are also on the radar for him.

Fact To File was comprehensively outstayed by Galopin Des Champs in the Savills over Christmas leading to suggestions he could switch back to the Ryanair at Cheltenham and it’s interesting William Hill, the first bookmaker to go non-runner/no bet for the four days, have him at 6/4.

But I just wonder if connections would really want to take him away from chasing’s blue riband off the back of just one piece of evidence and it will be interesting to see if he – and Galopin Des Champs – square off for round three in the Irish Gold Cup next month or if one of them sits it out.

The one on my Ryanair radar at the moment is L’Homme Presse at 20/1. Yep, he has the Gold Cup option too, but I don’t see him being quite good enough to win that – but he could easily snare a ‘normal’ Ryanair.

He looked like he retains all his old ability when running on into third behind Banbridge on Boxing Day. He likes Cheltenham, he won a Dipper over two-and-a-half miles there as a novice and has plenty of good form at the trip. He’d be a very big player if this is the March target.

Djelo ridden by Charlie Deutsch on the way to winning the Trustatrader Peterborough Chase

BL: As always a lot of the Ryanair horses could run in the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup so the key, in the first week of January, at least, is to try and identify a likely runner.

Like Dave, I like a Venetia Williams runner, bit it's Djelo for me.

He has never run beyond 2m4f, but he looked a massively improved performer in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on December 8 when accounting for last year’s Ryanair Chase winner Protektorat over two and a half miles.

I can’t imagine him running in any other Festival race and if there’s one Cheltenham bet I would advise today it’s him for the Ryanair at 20/1.

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, March 13

Does Teahupoo deserve to be a 7/4 chance for this race?

DO: I think he does - because how bare is this cupboard? There seems little to enthuse over on this side of the Irish Sea, Crambo’s connections not convinced Cheltenham is his track and it’s back to the drawing board with Strong Leader after he blew out at Ascot.

Home By The Lee has been the standout in Ireland so far this season but was only third behind Teahupoo in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle and I can’t think at the age of ten he’s improved sufficiently to bridge that gap.

No, despite being predictably not quick enough to cope with Lossiemouth in a Hatton’s Grace that became a speed test, Teahupoo looks like a rock-solid market leader.

Teahupoo wins under Jack Kennedy

BL: This looks to be a case of lack of credible opposition as I’m not sure he would be such a dominant favourite if one or two others had thrown their hats into the ring. He was impressive in last year’s race and can be forgiven his defeat to Lossiemouth over 2m4f on his reappearance, but he doesn’t do it for me at short prices I have to say.

If the ground has a dollop of ‘good’ in it come Stayers' Hurdle time I think he’d have a different question to answer and surely the Cleeve Hurdle will at least throw up a credible contender against him.

You can never rule out something coming from left-field in this race either, a promising chaser turned staying hurdler - it’s interesting to see Ballyburn’s name in the betting - but however this pans out I would be shocked if Teahupoo is any shorter than he currently is come the day.

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, March 14

Who could ruin Galopin Des Champs’ hat-trick bid in the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

DO: Fact To File is definitely a threat still, Gerri Colombe has the ability to get close but at 33/1 the one I’m ready to give another chance to is Spillane's Tower.

It just didn’t happen for him in the King George but I’m happy to put a line through that and his John Durkan second marked him out as a top-notch young chaser. He’s very unexposed at three miles-plus, has speed, and I’d expect him to bounce back sooner rather than later.

But if the favourite is fit and on-song, I think they're playing for places.

BL: Galopin Des Champs lit up Leopardstown at Christmas with a sparkling Savills Chase success, putting up-and-coming stablemate Fact To File in his place in the process. He really looks to be at the top of his game and even though he’s clocking up the miles now after 15 steeplechases he is only nine and is showing no signs of regression yet, which bodes really well for his chances of emulating Arkle and Best Mate.

Of course, three Gold Cups is a really tough task and there will be no shortage of opponents on the day.

Fact To File remains a danger, as does owner-mate Corbetts Cross, while last year’s runner-up Gerri Colombe shouldn’t be forgotten about just because he has been absent since Down Royal. He makes most appeal at around 14 or 16/1 at the moment, while 33s about Grey Dawning has to be on the radar, too, as he’s miles better than he showed when making a mistake at the first at Kempton.