Mark Howard unveils his latest list of dark horses heading to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival including a class-dropper in one of the handicaps.
According to the ante-post lists, Closutton’s best hope in 2025 is LADY VEGA ALLEN, who has the pedigree to win at the Festival being a relative of six times winner Quevega.
Previously trained in France by Etienne D’Andigne, who was also responsible for Grade 1 winner and Champion Hurdle runner-up Irish Point, she has raced three times and the Irish handicapper has allocated her a mark of 132, which is six pounds lower than stablemate and compatriot Willy De Houelle.
The pair have already met twice this season in Graded company at Leopardstown, with the filly emerging on top both times. Denied by a short head behind Hello Neighbour in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle on St Stephen’s Day on her Irish debut, she stayed on strongly after the last with seven lengths back to the third.
Gavin Cromwell’s winner once again got the better of the Saint Des Saints filly in the Grade 1 juvenile at the DRF over the same C&D. Sean O’Keeffe’s mount held every chance at the last before going down by a length and a half in third. It was three lengths back to Willy De Houelle who filled fourth position.
While the temptation may be to have another crack at Hello Neighbour, is it realistic to think she can make it third time lucky?
Depending on what mark the British handicapper allocates her on Tuesday, if it is anything near her Irish rating, Mullins may be tempted to take the ‘softer option’ and head down the handicap route in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on the opening afternoon. If so, the 10/1 on offer (NRNB William Hill) will look huge on the day.
Horses with lofty ratings have a knack of running well in the Coral Cup – Commander of Fleet won it off 152 in 2022, William Henry was rated 151 when successful in 2019 and Ballyadam was runner-up behind Langer Dan twelve months with top weight of 12st and an official rating of 147. With that in mind, it is hoped SANDOR CLEGANE runs here rather than the Stayers Hurdle on the final day.
Officially rated 147, it is nearly two years since Paul Nolan’s charge was spotted in the winners’ enclosure – ironically, it was the last time he raced over the intermediate trip – when scoring at the Punchestown Festival. Campaign over fences without success last term, the Fame And Glory reverted back to timber this winter running creditably on all three occasions.
Three lengths fourth in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park in January on his latest start, this will be his third Festival appearance. Disqualified after finishing an excellent third behind Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in 2023, he was fourth to Fact To File in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase twelve months ago.
Effective on any ground, his form figures over 2m 4f and 2m 5f are 11. Available at 33/1 (NRBB bet365, Ladbrokes), 10 of his 17 career starts have been in Graded company and this will be his handicap debut, if given the go ahead.
It is fourteen years since the Tizzard stable won the Grand Annual courtesy of Oiseau De Nuit under Stephen Clements. Stable star JPR ONE has three options at next month’s meeting and fingers crossed the eight year old is steered towards the two miles handicap.
With an official rating of 156, the dual Grade 2 winning chaser will be near the summit of the weights, but he has earned his mark having defeated Djelo (now rated 166) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in early November. Conceding two pounds to Venetia Williams’ charge, who has won two Grade 2 events since, he scored by three parts of a length off 149 with the pair eight lengths clear of the third.
That win was achieved on good ground and that is the key to the Tizzard runner. His record on good or good to soft is 12591U1 and he was unlucky not to win a Grade 2 novice chase over C&D when unseating his rider at the last when in control in November 2023.
Third in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown behind Jonbon in December, he was fourth of five in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last time – both those races were run on soft ground. Having raced only eight times over fences, he remains relatively unexposed and is priced at 16/1 (NRNB Bet365, William Hill).
The dark horse amongst the entries for the Pertemps Final could be the novice WILL THE WISE. Available at 16/1 (NRNB Sky Bet), those odds could collapse or disappear in a puff of smoke, depending on his performance in a qualifier at Punchestown on Sunday afternoon (3.50).
Hailing from the same source as Champion Hurdle Faugheen, namely Andrew Slattery, the Well Chosen gelding won his point-to-point before being acquired for £95,000 in December 2023. A bumper winner at last season’s Punchestown Festival, the six year old is held in high esteem by Gavin Cromwell.
While things didn’t go to plan during the first half of this season, he had the misfortune to bump into subsequent Grade 1 winning novices The Yellow Clay and Final Demand at Navan and Limerick respectively. However, he got his act together last time when comfortably accounting for seven rivals in a 2m 6f maiden hurdle at Punchestown in mid January.
Pushed clear in the homestraight, he was eased after the last to record a length and a half victory. Rated 123 as a result, he tackles two miles seven for the first time under Rules on Sunday, but it is expected to suit. Cromwell’s runner needs to finish in the first four to qualify and ideally to win to secure a high enough rating for the Festival, plus it will be his fifth run over the smaller obstacles.
The Triumph Hurdle is not the only event on the final day which Team Mullins have dominated in recent times – the Closutton outfit have landed the County Hurdle on seven occasions since 2010. The markets suggest that stranglehold will continue in March with Mullins responsible for five of the seven names heading the lists, including buzz horse Kopeck De Mee.
There have only been four home-trained winners in the last ten years – all thanks to Dan Skelton – but there is a feeling FAVOUR AND FORTUNE can make an impact, if the ground continues to dry out.
Best of the British in last season’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle when finishing sixth on testing conditions, it is debatable how strong the Festival opener was but it was a solid effort nevertheless. A game winner of the Scottish Champion Hurdle next time, Alan King’s gelding is only two pounds higher now off 140 and he has raced just twice this term.
Reportedly in need of the outing when sixth in the Grade 3 Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas, he caught the eye in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Newbury last time. Once again racing on unsuitably slow ground, he stayed on well in fourth behind the well handicapped winner Joyeuse.
Time will show it was an impossible task conceding seventeen pounds to Nicky Henderson’s impressive scorer and it was a step in the right direction, suggesting the son of Soldier of Fortune will peak in the spring. Runner-up in Grade 1 company as a novice last term, he is unbeaten on good ground.
Entered in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso next weekend, it is hoped he is saved for the Festival instead. The 20/1 on offer (NRNB Sky Bet) is fair.
Published at 0930 GMT on 23/02/25
Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead Cheltenham Festival preview is available to purchase via www.mhpublications.co.uk priced at £12 (due to be published on Sunday 9th March).
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