Five experts reveal their best long-range bet for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
This year’s Sporting Life Arkle was won by a horse who had an extra season over hurdles by accident in Edwardstone and I wonder if we’ll see a similar result next year with APPRECIATE IT?
His reputation at home is clearly huge in a stable of stars, as you can tell from a 100/30 starting price to beat the unbeaten Honeysuckle in last week’s Unibet Champion Hurdle.
After a year off the track the last thing he needed was a speed test, but the faster than advertised ground combined with a relatively slow gallop conspired against him. His nine-and-a-quarter-length seventh is easily excused and the result only enforces the original decision to go novice chasing with him, something that will be Willie Mullins’ focus with him now.
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After last year’s Sky Bet Supreme he was 4/1 for the Arkle, but he’s 12/1 with Sky Bet now and those ahead of him in the market – Sir Gerhard and Constitution Hill – could stay over hurdles, while Jonbon might want a bit further.
Appreciate It could go up in trip himself and he’s 14/1 for the Turners, but he’ll likely start off over two miles and if he takes to fences like I think he will he could quickly develop into the one to beat in the division.
In 2016, Nicky Henderson’s two runners in the Supreme, winner Altior and third-placed Buveur d’Air, went on to win the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle respectively at the Festival a year later. It’s not hard to imagine the stable’s pair in this year’s Supreme pulling off the same double at next year’s Festival, though this time it will be the winner going for the Champion Hurdle.
Most of the attention was on Constitution Hill after his spectacular win in the Supreme which makes him a short price for next year’s Champion Hurdle. But JONBON emerged with plenty of credit too in second.
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Everything about him suggests he’ll be even better over fences – he’s a big, well-made type - and if he takes to them as well as his brother Douvan did, he could well be joining him on the Arkle roll of honour.
JAMES’S GATE ran a huge race to finish third in the Champion Bumper at this year’s Festival, particularly as he was conceding experience to the pair who beat him, lining up at Cheltenham just 31 days after an impressive debut success at Punchestown.
By contrast, the winner Facile Vega – a stablemate of James’s Gate – had already competed at Grade Two level, when registering the second of two easy victories at Leopardstown, while the runner-up American Mike was also unbeaten in two starts in bumpers before the turn of the year after previously winning his sole outing in Irish points.
James’s Gate was beaten only six lengths after travelling strongly for a long way at Cheltenham, and it wasn’t just in the race itself that he impressed. In fact, he was arguably the pick of the whole field on looks, blessed with plenty of scope and very much the type to take high rank as a novice hurdler next season.
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Crucially, we can also be fairly certain of which race James’s Gate will run if making it to the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. After all, his owners Sean and Bernardine Mulryan sponsor the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and they invariably target the race when they find themselves with a suitable candidate, as they did when City Island was successful in 2019.
James’s Gate probably has next year’s Ballymore circled in his calendar already and odds of 14/1 could look very generous indeed if he progresses as hoped during the first half of the season
Having been fortunate enough to visit Dan Skelton’s yard in the run-up to the Cheltenham Festival, I’ve little doubt there is something major brewing at the Alcester yard.
Progress has been stark over the past couple of years and you certainly sense there’s plenty more to come with a whole host of exciting young prospects on the books, and now their own stud which should open further possibilities down the line.
As far as the 2023 Festival goes, My Drogo would have to be high on the list and it will be fascinating to see how he is campaigned following his enforced layoff, but WEST CORK is another big player for the stable going forward and the 25/1 about him for the Turners makes some appeal.
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Edwardstone reminded everyone that top novice chasers can emerge from the handicap hurdle ranks and, having won a Greatwood off a mark of 134 and finished fourth to State Man in the County off 141 last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see West Cork make the grade. He’s bred to stay further, is a point-to-point winner and looks made for the intermediate trip next time around.
The latest edition of the Mares' Chase produced an exciting finish, with little more than half a length separating the first three, but it's difficult to take a high view of the form, with Elimay all out to beat the 33/1 shot Pink Legend and 28/1 shot Scarlet And Dove.
Given such a low bar, the likelihood is that next year's edition will be won by a mare relatively new on the scene.
RIVIERE D'ETEL disappointed when only fifth in the Sporting Life Arkle but has otherwise enjoyed an excellent first season over fences, winning her first three starts before twice finishing runner-up in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown.
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It is unlikely Riviere d'Etel will be good enough to make a serious impact in a strong two-mile division next season, but she has already shown a level of form to suggest she can be extremely competitive if kept to mares' company. She has a forward-going style that will drag inferior mares out of their comfort zone.
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