Cheltenham Festival 2023 opinion | Who is Willie’s Arkle number one?

Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon was safely tucked away in his Seven Barrows box at Christmas but he still got some festive cheer when Boothill won the Wayward Lad at Kempton.

Before that boost – he had easily seen off Harry Fry’s horse in the Henry VIII at Sandown – his chasing form had little substance to it (in terms of what he had beaten), even if he had impressed on the clock – as well as with both his technique and style.

It’s becoming very clear there was no shame in being hammered by his stablemate, Constitution Hill, in last year’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but the lingering factor for would-be backers at prices around the 11/8 mark for the Sporting Life Arkle is thus; what will happen when he crosses paths with a really good novice chaser?

For all that I respect Jonbon’s Arkle chance, I’m sure there’s a bit of value to be had against him given he’s so short in the betting after just two runs over fences that were, to borrow the name of his sire, absolute Walk In the Park’s for him.

As ever, if there is a horse to beat him he could well reside within Willie Mullins’ yard where not one, not two, not three, but more Arkle possibles are currently in situ.

“We seem to have a huge amount of good two-mile novice chasers this year,” Patrick Mullins told us this week.

“Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, Saint Roi and Appreciate It. You need three or four if you can as one or two might go by the wayside or one or two might not be as good as you hope when they step up in grade.

“But it does look to be a particularly strong crop we have this year for sure.”

Mullins' Arkle hopes: Timeform ratings

• Appreciate It 153P (Best odds: 5/1)
• Dysart Dynamo 155p (Best odds: 6/1)
• El Fabiolo 152p (Best odds: 11/2)
• Saint Roi 155p (Best odds: 16/1)

Click here for Sky Bet's latest Sporting Life Arkle odds

On Timeform ratings there’s hardly anything between the quartet, as things stand. Appreciate It has the large P attached to his rating and that’s because he has so far been untested, by the opposition at least, in two chasing starts.

His jumping has come under the microscope, if only because there’s not a lot else to judge him on, his style looking assured without being flashy. That’s usually a trait of a horse that wants to go up in trip and I wonder if he might end up lacking a gear for an Arkle?

It’s just on my mind he might need a proper soft-ground Arkle to show his best, not without question on day one of the Festival, but if he is to win the race he could be one of those winners that does so thanks to his stamina.

I don’t doubt his class, though, and he could still be the best fit for this race.

For a pure two-miler amongst the fab four, look no further than Dysart Dynamo. He burst onto the scene with a demolition job victory in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown this time last year, only to fall three out in Constitution Hill’s Supreme before he had been asked a question.

Bombing out at Punchestown added fuel to the fire that he wouldn’t have got near Nicky Henderson’s new superstar at Cheltenham, but even last season he had the look of a horse that needed a fence and his chasing debut at Leopardstown could hardly have been more impressive.

He jumped slickly and raced with enthusiasm, shaping every inch like a top Arkle prospect. Tougher jumping tests await when he goes up in grade, but it could be that fences have made a man of him.

El Fabiolo gave the 143-rated hurdler Colonel Mustard a 19-length beating on his chasing debut on December 21, staking his own claims for two-mile novice chase honours before lunch had been served on a sunny day at Fairyhouse.

This was the same race his owner-mate Blue Lord had won on his own chasing debut last season and this was impressive, for all that he got in tight to the fourth and was untidy at the second last. His jumping could do with tightening up, then, but he ran Jonbon to a neck in the Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Aintree and he’s another with an engine and bags of talent.

Such a statement can be echoed regarding Saint Roi, who improved from his fencing debut second when he turned the tables on Fil Dor in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

He wasn’t fluent early – which would be a worry in an Arkle – but he really got into his rhythm in the second half of the contest and won going away thanks to a strong finishing effort. It remains to be seen if he’ll sport the JP McManus second cap by lining up against Jonbon at Cheltenham.

Conclusion – APPRECIATE IT

Click here for Sky Bet's latest Sporting Life Arkle odds

There’s so much burgeoning talent among Mullins’ two-mile novice chasers it’s difficult to pick out the best candidate for the Arkle, but APPRECIATE IT looks to be the one with the finest blend of experience and talent to deal with the task in hand.

A point winner, Champion Bumper second and wide-margin Supreme winner before he’d seen a fence under Rules, he effectively missed last season but that has done his novice chasing prospects no harm whatsoever.

He’s the only one of the quartet with Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival winning experience – although Saint Roi did hack up in a County Hurdle – and he’s taken to fences really well, for all that he hasn’t been tested as yet.

Here’s the view from Patrick Mullins after his win at Naas on Sunday: “Ideally, he would’ve had somebody upsides him, he was a little bit lairy in front and he put down at one or two, but what I liked about him was that he never guessed. When he put down he put down and when he came he came, he knew what he was doing.

“In an ideal world it would’ve been nice to get more competitive experience into him, but the fact that he got around and jumped well was great."

The Dublin Racing Festival will tell us more. Mullins ran three in the Irish Arkle last year, all of them were sent off at 4/1 or shorter, and Blue Lord emerged as the best. He could only manage third behind Edwardstone in the Arkle, but he is blooming this season and has developed into a Queen Mother Champion Chase player.

All four of Mullins’ Arkle prospects need to sharpen their chasing skillset by taking on better opposition before Cheltenham. It will likely happen for more than one of them at Leopardstown on February 5.

And while Dysart Dynamo is a really exciting prospect – and perhaps the best long-term hope in the yard of taking the baton from Energumene – it’s Appreciate It that appeals most as ready made for the Arkle at a key stage in his career.

Whoever lines up from Closutton to take on Jonbon, it's already shaping up to be one of the most eagerly-anticipated races of the Festival.

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