The handicap weights for the Cheltenham Festival are out, so it’s the perfect time to assess which horses have been given a chance by the handicappers.
You will notice a theme developing here. The most interesting British-trained runners in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps seem to be horses who are well-treated on old form, while the majority of Irish-trained handicappers that are flooding the top of the markets are more lightly-raced with the promise of their best days ahead of them.
Last year’s Festival reminded us there are two ways to skin a cat. While the Irish won handicaps with up-and-coming performers like Brazil, State Man and Banbridge, the Brits held their own in the sphere with wins for Global Citizen, Third Wind and Coole Cody, a trio of horses that were more exposed but were given their chances at the weights.
With the weights for the handicaps only just released on Wednesday afternoon, I’m in no mad rush to get involved at the current prices given conditions and final fields are still up in the air. But a first look is necessary to help with the leg-work as we build up to the Cheltenham Festival, so here is a shortlist of horses that are immediately on my radar.
CAMPROND (Coral Cup, Martin Pipe Conditionals)
- Trainer: Philip Hobbs
- Official Rating: 138
Camprond was a touch unlucky at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He’d been kept fresh for spring ground only for the heavens to open on Coral Cup day, turning the ground bordering heavy by the time Commander In Fleet won the race for Gordon Elliott at 50/1. Camprond travelled well, like he was in the groove, but in ground conditions that weren’t ideal he couldn’t pick up and had to settle for fourth from a mark of 140.
He made amends in style at the Punchestown Festival and was rated 147 after that, but switching to fences did not go as planned this season and he’s been unlucky since coming back to hurdles; he was brought down at the second in the Lanzarote, the ground was against him at Cheltenham on Trials Day and then he didn’t react well to the hood at Musselburgh.
The upshot is he’s rated 138 now – and if he gets his ground this year he could be a player in the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe.
EMBITTERED (Plate Handicap Chase)
- Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
- Official Rating: 145
Joseph O’Brien’s Embittered will be running at his fourth Cheltenham Festival this year and he has racked up a pretty good body of work at the meeting in the past. Third in the County Hurdle in 2020, he fell in the Grand Annual when going well a year later and then he was seventh in the same race 12 months ago when the heavy ground seemed to be against him.
All of those races were over two miles, all of them were from the 145/146 mark and the lower number is what he has been allotted again. The difference this year is that he has been tried over three miles and, while he didn’t quite stay, the intermediate trip of 2m4f and a bit in the Magners Plate Handicap Chase could be ideal. He looked as good as ever when second at Cork in November, so perhaps he could finally put that good Festival experience to good use now he tries a different trip.
GLORY AND FORTUNE (County Hurdle)
- Trainer: Tom Lacey
- Official Rating: 144
At last year’s Cheltenham Festival Glory And Fortune travelled well at 150/1 in the Champion Hurdle when finishing just over eight lengths off Honeysuckle in fifth, before he was subsequently promoted to fourth. After that effort he was rated 154 having earlier won a Betfair Hurdle at Newbury off 143.
This year he hasn’t taken to fences and then he was always towards the rear off 148 in the latest renewal of the Betfair Hurdle, but he has dropped quickly to around his last winning mark and he’s undoubtedly a handicapper with a touch of class about him. Indeed, he’s the type of horse that used to be hard to place, but he’s dropped to a competitive rating so quickly that a County Hurdle challenge looks a no brainer.
HAXO (Martin Pipe Conditionals)
- Trainer: Willie Mullins
- Official Rating: 132
It’s quickly becoming clear that the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate horses mean business and when they've got one with Willie Mullins off what will be a lowly rating in the Martin Pipe it could pay to sit up and take notice. Haxo has Cheltenham Festival experience having finished down the field in last year’s Ballymore behind Sir Gerhard, but he looked an improved horse on his last start.
That came at Punchestown against odds-on stablemate Sir Argus, but he jumped well and settled better than he had in the past on his way to a deserved one-length victory. The form looks pretty good, with the beaten horses running well subsequently, and with just four runs under his belt you couldn’t be more unexposed in the Martin Pipe. A winner of an AQPS bumper on good ground, spring conditions could bring out the best in him, too.
ITCHY FEET (Pertemps Final)
- Trainer: Olly Murphy
- Official Rating: 143
Itchy Feet has been around a while but he’s only nine and he looks well treated ahead of his Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle mission. Rated 155 over both hurdles and fences at his peak, he went off the rails in chases last season but wind surgery in the summer looks to have been the catalyst for improved performances. Reverting to hurdles looks another factor and he is more lightly-raced over the smaller obstacles, having had just the nine starts over timber.
He did it very nicely in his Pertemps qualifier at Huntingdon at the end of January off a mark of 138 and then he beat similarly-rated horses well when second to Wakool in the Rendlesham at Haydock last time, a race in which he traded at 1.26 in-running on Betfair. Third in a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ in his youth, he has Festival form as well as a classy past - certainly relative to the rivals he will face in a Pertemps Final.
JAZZY MATTY (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)
- Trainer: Gordon Elliott
- Official Rating: 125
Gordon Elliott has won the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle three times in the race’s short history and he looks to have an interesting hand again this year headed by Jazzy Matty. This horse ran second behind Comfort Zone on his Irish debut, where he had the Boodles favourite Tekao behind him, before he got off the mark at Fairyhouse just before Christmas.
Hampered at the start when well beaten by Triumph Hurdle fancy Blood Destiny back at the same track in the middle of January, he put his hand up as a Fred Winter project when fourth in a small field at Naas on February 11 – the same race Aramax won for Elliott before he went onto Boodles glory at the 2020 Festival. He’s better than that and a mark of 125 gives him a chance.
ROUGE VIF (Grand Annual)
- Trainer: Harry Whittington
- Official Rating: 137
Last year’s Grand Annual winner, Global Citizen, was given a helping hand by the handicapper as he ran off 136, fully 20lb lower than his peak chase rating, and this time around Rouge Vif has a similar profile. Rated 164 over fences in his pomp, he has dropped 27lb to 137 and he has done so after running over trips that stretch his stamina or by running over hurdles.
Back at Harry Whittington’s after a fairly brief stint with Paul Nicholls, the question is has he still got the ability to take advantage of his falling mark? A couple of hurdles runs were unusable evidence but he appeared in a two-mile handicap chase at Doncaster on January 27 and he looked much more like his old self, jumping well on the sharp end before he weakened after being headed before the second last.
It was a hint that he’s still got it, and given he has bolted up in a Cheltenham handicap off a mark of 156 before he has to be on the radar from his current lowly perch.
More in the series
February 22 - Who are the Festival favourites to oppose?
February 15 - Can Shishkin rediscover his mojo?
February 8 - Can Paul Nicholls bounce back at the Festival?
February 1 - What are the main Dublin Racing Festival pointers?
January 25 - Trials Day: Who will be the Festival plunge horse?
January 18 - Can Dan Skelton step up at this year's Festival?
January 11 - Who is Willie's Sporting Life Arkle number one?
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