With less than three weeks to go to the Cheltenham Festival it’s high time we pinpointed the dodgy favourites at this year’s jamboree.
FACILE VEGA (5/2 Sky Bet) – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Willie Mullins’ faith hasn’t been knocked, the race target is seemingly set in stone and plenty of his current market rivals could end up in other races, so you can see why Facile Vega has found himself back at the head of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle betting.
But here we have a horse who was beaten out of sight, to the tune of 20 lengths, on his final start before Cheltenham in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Yes, they went too quick on the front end and Facile Vega paid the price. That’s hardly the ideal preparation quite obviously. But perhaps the relatively quick ground at the Dublin Racing Festival was another factor and maybe he just needs more of a trip, like his famous mother did, as well.
Whatever your working out, there are plenty of reasons to oppose this horse at 5/2 in the Festival opener.
EL FABIOLO (11/10 Sky Bet) – Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase
Mullins could easily have more than 10 winners at this year's Cheltenham but that doesn't mean he will avoid having some high-profile reverses and taking on short ones from his yard will have to be a theme of the week for plenty of punters.
His Sporting Life Arkle favourite El Fabiolo was really impressive in victory in the Goffs Irish Arkle at Leopardstown, but it set up lovely for him and I still believe he’s got a superior horse to take on at Cheltenham in the shape of old rival Jonbon.
He got away with a jumping error at the fourth last at the DRF but he’s much less likely to get away with anything similar on the Cheltenham old course where a late mistake can cost you Festival glory.
It’s not just Jonbon, either. El Fabiolo might not even be the best Arkle horse in the Mullins yard, despite what that Leopardstown form suggests, and at the prices I’m keen to take him on.
GERRI COLOMBE (2/1 Sky Bet) – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
There’s an element of ground-based interpretation factored into this line of thinking but whatever the weather does I couldn’t be backing Gerri Colombe for the Brown Advisory at around 2/1.
Gordon Elliott could hardly have found two weaker Grade 1s than those this horse has contested on his last two starts and while he might well improve for going up in trip he’s still unproven over three miles over fences.
He is a sound jumper and a lovely prospect, but even his owners sounded lukewarm about going to Cheltenham this time around with next year’s Gold Cup his long-term aim.
And it's the prospect of spring ground that puts me off him. He got away with Good to Soft at Sandown in February in a weak Scilly Isles but he looked right at home on soft ground in Ireland before that and we might need a wet week if we’re to even see him line up.
ENERGUMENE (11/8 Sky Bet) – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase division has been at the receiving end of a right old shake-up over the last month but the market still has Energumene as favourite.
That’s understandable taking his overall form into account but his Clarence House defeat was tame after some poor jumping and it triggers the question were his two Grade 1 wins last spring all that good?
The Champion Chase fell apart around him and he had very little to beat at Punchestown, but there are some new kids on the block in this race now and two of them beat him on trials day.
He’s favourite now, but I’m not sure he will be come race day. There will be a lot of momentum behind Edwardstone’s challenge as he bids to continue the Arkle's excellent record of finding Champion Chase winners. He could easily usurp Energumene as market leader and after that Cheltenham Clarence House he probably should do.
IMPERVIOUS (6/4 Sky Bet) – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase
Colm Murphy's Impervious is a likeable and improving mare but 6/4 quotes about her for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase look crazily short.
How did we get here? A Grade 3 win under a penalty against male horses Journey With Me and Minella Crooner at Punchestown rightly attracted the plaudits but neither of those horses look world beaters and the victory did come in heavy ground which she appears to relish.
Ground might be an issue and so might be the track – she was a well beaten sixth in last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle on her only previous visit to Cheltenham – while she has a couple of real dangers on collateral form lines.
Magic Daze is entitled to give her a right race on a line through Dinoblue, while Mullins’ Allegorie De Vassy has the beating of her on a line through that Journey With Me form via Brides Hill. Impervious at 6/4? She’s not for me.
*Sky Bet odds correct at 0930 GMT on 22/02/2023
More in the series
February 15 - Can Shishkin rediscover his mojo?
February 8 - Can Paul Nicholls bounce back at the Festival?
February 1 - What are the main Dublin Racing Festival pointers?
January 25 - Trials Day: Who will be the Festival plunge horse?
January 18 - Can Dan Skelton step up at this year's Festival?
January 11 - Who is Willie's Sporting Life Arkle number one?
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