Cheltenham Festival 2022 tips: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase preview
Our Cheltenham antepost series continues with Festival regular and resident tipster Rory Delargy taking a shot at one of the major novice chase events.
2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Ahoy Senor in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 8/1 (Sky Bet, BetFred NRNB)
Ah, the joy of the sponsorship merry-go-round and the resulting confusion over Cheltenham Festival race titles. It’s fine with the two-mile hurdles – the Supreme, the Champion, the Triumph, even the County, are names we’ve had since 1978 or earlier, and it’s largely the same with the chases at that trip – the Arkle, the Champion, the Grand Annual all the same for half a century and more. It’s when you step up to the twilight zone of intermediate trips that things get complicated.
The Turners – did that used to be the JLT, or do I mean the other JLT? Is that the Golden Miller, or the Centenary, and does the latter still exist? What happened the Mildmay of Flete, and why do people keep spelling it Fleet – I can assure you that Lord Mildmay had no time for motorway services. Is that the Festival Plate now, and if so what’s the Festival Trophy? What the hell do Close Brothers sell? Who are Brown Advisory, and what have they done with Merriebelle Stables? Was the Coral Cup the Coral Golden Hurdle in the olden days, or is that the Pertemps? When are we getting the Ken Payne Memorial selling hurdle (six trainers maximum, all with four runners)?
This gets more confusing when one sponsor jumps ship from one race to another, and I spent a thoroughly pointless 15 minutes talking to the boy Massey about his fancy for the Brown Advisory, before realising he was talking about an entirely different race.
Now I’m as big a fan of Imperial Alcazar as there is out there, and he’s in my Tote Ten To Follow (TTTF) in the hope he’d win the 3m Grade 1 novice in March, but it turns out Dave was talking about the Paddy Power Plate, formerly the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate, formally (sic) the Festival Plate, and once the Mildmay of Flete, while I was talking about the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, formerly the RSA, short for RoyalSunAlliance, once Royal & Sun Alliance, and initially just Sun Alliance, when sponsoring the race formally (sic) titled the Broadway Novices’ Chase, as it was when won by Arkle in 1963. Hope you’re keeping up.
So, getting back to the Brown Advisory (Registered as the Broadway Novices’ Chase), and shedding any lingering hopes that Imperial Alcazar will be gaining me a monster haul of TTTF points, I’ve come to the conclusion that AHOY SENOR is the horse to be with at the current odds.
Lucinda Russell’s charge failed to cope with the demands of Kempton when a creditable second in the Kauto Star (formerly the Feltham, replay in full below if you'd like to see it again) on Boxing Day (formally St Stephen’s Day…..stop this now, Ed), but is better judged on both his demolition of his rivals in the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase at Newbury, and indeed his demolition of Grade 1 rivals, headed by Bravemansgame at Aintree last April.
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Ahoy Senor is a little rough around the edges, as you’d expect for a horse who has had just five starts over obstacles since making his Rules debut just over a year ago, but he has enormous potential. I would favour Bravemansgame in a match race run tomorrow, independent of venue, but the lingering feeling with him is that he has scope to progress into a really exciting stayer over fences if ironing out his jumping, whereas Bravemansgame is pretty much fully formed as a chaser already, and it was a similar story with him over hurdles last year, looking very impressive until belatedly meeting superior rivals in the spring.
Paul Nicholls’s star is a pretty flawless jumper and thoroughly straightforward in a race, but he found those attributes less than sufficient when facing Bob Olinger in the Ballymore, and he could no more live with Ahoy Senor at Aintree than he could that rival at Cheltenham.
That is why Ahoy Senor appeals more as a win prospect against the best, because he retains that scope for progress, and backing him is backing Lucinda Russell to unlock that extra potential that he needs to score at the highest level. The confidence Russell and partner Peter Scudamore have in him is demonstrated by the fact that he’s also entered in the Gold Cup, the sole first-season chaser in the field for the Boodles-sponsored contest.
The first question to ask after assessing his ability to win, is will he run? He was due to run in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last week, but was withdrawn due to ground concerns, and he will now run in the Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby on Saturday. Although his trainer is not ruling out the Gold Cup, I feel that the only way connections can feel justified in rolling the dice (Big Dice™ John Gosden) is to tackle open company prior to the Festival, as Coneygree did in the Denman Chase a few years back. If they run in the Towton, a very run-of-the-mill Grade 2 for novices, they are passing over that chance, and by extension the Gold Cup.
He certainly won’t be going for any other novice event at the Festival, so it looks a short price that Ahoy Senor is Brown Advisory-bound. He has a tough opponent in Galopin des Champs, but it was interesting to hear Ruby Walsh say he thought the Turners Novices’ Chase would be a better fit for him given his electric jumping, and he is due to meet Capodanno in the Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase over 2m5f at Leopardstown this weekend. Willie hasn’t been shy about running his future Gold Cup hopes over shorter at Cheltenham, and despite his skinny odds, I’d not bank on seeing Galopin des Champs in this contest, accepting that his trainer may be keen to avoid Bob Olinger (entered here, but sure to go for the Turners) with his best novice.
Of the other Irish entries, Capodanno has multiple options, and would be a fair substitute for GDC having found only Bob Olinger too strong at Punchestown, but I don’t rate the chances of the Grade 1 winners Fury Road or Beacon Edge.
The former is a thief in my experience – or to paraphrase Corporal Jones from Dad’s Army, “He doesn’t like it up ‘im, sir!” - and although seemingly improved by headgear at Christmas, will need to improve a fair bit further. He’s met Beacon Edge four times in the past year, and when both have finished, it’s 3-0 to the latter.
Beacon Edge, unlike Fury Road, is a real trier, but he didn’t quite get 3m in the Stayers’ Hurdle, and he found the fences hard work when winning the Drinmore at Fairyhouse. What he lacks in scope and stamina doesn’t quite make up for his abundance of heart, sadly.
In summary, Galopin des Champs is feared, but Ahoy Senor appeals as value to reverse Kempton form with Bravemansgame on this more galloping track, and while he can be backed at 9/1 all-in, the 8/1 NRNB with Sky Bet and others gives a decent safety net at a small premium, and he’s suggested as a win-only bet given there will be no room for error for one with his run style.
Published at 1155 GMT on 03/02/22
Recommended bets archive and schedule…
- January 6 – Ben Linfoot – 1pt win Eric Bloodaxe in Albert Bartlett at 16/1
- January 13 – Simon Holt - 1pt win Saint Calvados in Ryanair Chase at 10/1
- January 20 – Adam Houghton - 1pt e.w Nube Negra in Champion Chase at 12/1
- January 27 – Tony McFadden - 1pt win The Glancing Queen in Mares' Chase at 14/1
- February 3 – Rory Delargy - 1pt win Ahoy Senor in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 8/1 (NRNB)
- February 10 – David Massey
- February 17 – Dan Barber
- February 24 – Chris Day
- March 3 – David Ord
- March 10 – Andrew Asquith
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