Ben Linfoot takes a look at the markets ahead of this week's Cheltenham Festival, revealing his favourite favourite, one to oppose and handicappers to back.
How many favourites will go in?
Since the Festival extended to four days in 2005 only once has the number of winning favourites crept into double-figures – when 11 market leaders won in 2016.
In 2008 only two prevailed – Albertas Run and Inglis Drever – in a meeting that was a bloodbath for punters after Kauto Star (10/11), Franchoek (Evens), Noland (7/4), Ashkazar (15/8) and Sizing Europe (2/1) were all beaten.
Favourite backers have had it better since those dark days, with the last four Festivals producing eight, nine, eight and eight winning jollies in chronological order.
Yet the bookies fear the worst. Hills are 7/4 there are 11 OR MORE WINNING SP FAVOURITES and just look at some of the prices even before the final fields have been revealed – Dysart Dynamo 2/1, Edwardstone 9/4, Honeysuckle 4/7, Gaelic Warrior 9/4, Sir Gerhard 4/5, Bravemansgame 7/4, Shishkin 4/6, Tiger Roll 6/4, Facile Vega 5/4, Bob Olinger 6/5, Allaho 8/13, Vauban 7/4 and Elimay 9/4.
My default setting is to go against the market leaders most of the time, but three or four winning favourites on the first day could see the bookies running for cover and in that situation 2016’s record of 11 could well tumble.
And the favourite favourite?
As you can see from the above list there are plenty to choose from.
Allaho and Honeysuckle look the most likely winners of the week but are priced up accordingly, Shishkin looks a tad too short in a red-hot Champion Chase and going in on the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Facile Vega doesn’t float my boat with so little evidence to go on.
No, the most appealing Festival Banker is SIR GERHARD in the Ballymore now he’s been confirmed for the 2m5f contest on the Wednesday.
This looks the weakest of the novice hurdles with the best in the division going for the Sky Bet Supreme and Sir Gerhard has the lot – a) Festival-winning form from the Champion Bumper, b) the best hurdling form on offer following his Grade One win at the DRF and c) he doesn’t look likely to lack for stamina being a point-to-point winner.
His class and speed can win him this in the style of Ballymore greats like Danoli, Istabraq, Monsignor, Faugheen and Bob Olinger – and like one or two of those it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him drop back in trip afterwards.
Who is the most vulnerable shortie?
It’s tempting to say Gaelic Warrior given the unknowns surrounding him and the amount of rivals we’d have running for us - but with confidence oozing out of connections that looks a dangerous play.
It’s tempting to say Shishkin given he takes on two high-class rivals in Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi in a race that has been a graveyard for odds-on favourites - but it’s not hard to envisage him powering up the hill in Altior-esque fashion.
And it’s tempting to say Facile Vega given the imponderables on assessing bumper form and the fact we’d have high-class horses like American Mike on our side - but he looked a superstar out of the very top drawer at the DRF.
So it’s to EDWARDSTONE we go for the lay in the Sporting Life Arkle, as he has the Cheltenham question to answer - as well as an Irish challenge that looks underestimated by the market on the back of a slightly underwhelming Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.
This looks likely to be a very different test for him than the small-field affairs he’s been running in all season and with a good few enforcers in there he could be taken out of his comfort zone, too.
Strongest fancy in the handicaps?
With the ground now likely to be edging towards 'Good' come the second day given the largely dry forecast I’ve been looking at the Coral Cup with that in mind and have backed CAMPROND who remains a solid each-way bet at 10/1.
All of his best form is on such conditions and he’s been kept away from the more testing ground this winter, trainer Philip Hobbs targeting him at a spring campaign from what looks a good perch of 140.
He was outpaced in the Greatwood Hurdle over two miles on the Cheltenham Old Course when last seen in November, but he stayed on nicely for fourth and that race has worked out very well.
Over trips around 2m4f he’s 2/2 after convincing wins at Chepstow and Cheltenham in October, and while his jumping was scruffy when he was learning his trade over two miles he looks much more furnished in that department these days.
With Sporting John ruled out of the Festival Hobbs will be sending his smallest team numerically to Cheltenham since he had four runners in 1997, but he’s in good form after a double on Saturday and this fellow could give him his first Festival win since Defi Du Seuil in 2019.
Best each-way bet at a price?
I’ve mentioned FREEDOM TO DREAM for the Martin Pipe in various previews including the best bets video above, but given he’s still 33/1 generally I’ll stick with him as I do like his chances in the final race of the meeting.
Connections won the Imperial Cup on Saturday with Suprise Package, as trainer Peter Fahey and owner Paul Leech struck with the 20/1 chance who was subsequently slashed for the County Hurdle next Friday on the back of the dominating win.
However, Leech’s other horse will be a massive player if he gets in the Martin Pipe on the same day - and I think he might with so many above him in the list having entries in the Grade Ones and the Coral Cup.
Off 135 he looks suitably well-treated on pretty much all of his form. A six-length second to Appreciate It in a Leopardstown bumper, he defied a 697-day absence to score nicely on his hurdling debut at Punchestown on the best ground he’s ever encountered back in November.
Since then he’s been second in the Grade 2 2m7f Limerick novice hurdle at Christmas - a race that has been a springboard for a plethora of Festival winners in the last decade – and then he travelled away nicely in the 2m6f Grade One at the Dublin Racing Festival before settling for fourth last month.
Getting in and getting a good conditional on board will be key, but with NRNB on side and big prices still available, he makes most appeal out of all the outsiders I’ve trawled through over the last week or so.
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