QIPCO British Champions Day: Ben Linfoot answers the key questions ahead of Ascot Saturday

Who is the poster boy/girl for QIPCO British Champions day 2020?

We had Frankel in 2011 and 2012, Dawn Approach and Cirrus Des Aigles in 2013, although both were beaten, Frankel’s brother, Noble Mission, for Lady Cecil in 2014, Solow in 2015, Almanzor in 2016, Frankel’s son, Cracksman, in 2017 and 2018, and then Stradivarius and Magical in 2019.

The sell for Champions Day has been easier in some years than it has others. Frankel was the ultimate draw in its formative years, Noble Mission less so - although his own story and performance lit up an otherwise gloomy card back in 2014.

This year the marketeers have not had to sell the day. There is no need to highlight a top of the bill, a star attraction, when there are no crowds to pull.

But identifying the annual cream of the crop helps make a judgement as to whether Champions Day is holding its own against Irish Champions Weekend, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe meeting and the Breeders’ Cup as each jurisdiction bids to lure the best of the best to their respective end-of-year extravaganza.

Two of the biggest stars of the year, Enable and Ghaiyyath, are no shows.

Ghaiyyath looks like mixing ICW with the BC and Enable signed off a wonderful career with a tepid exit in Paris, their absences from Ascot felt in a good renewal of the Champion Stakes, but one that is lacking in a bit of glitz and glamour.

Love, too, the star three-year-old filly of the season, was never really in the running for this day given the likelihood of testing ground.

It’s all a bit of an afterthought for Stradivarius in this season’s renewal of the Long Distance Cup, while Dream Of Dreams, admittedly on a roll, is a six-year-old gelding that has taken an age to find his consistency at the highest level.

So it’s to the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes we go for the poster boy. And while there’s no Mohaather, no Pinatubo and no Kameko, there is Palace Pier.

Unbeaten for the season, unbeaten in his career, much rests on the shoulders of the son of Kingman as he bids to add a QEII to the St James’s Palace Stakes and Prix Jacques le Marois victories he has gained at the highest level on his last two visits to the track.

A Champions Day exclusive, John Gosden has targeted him at this prize from a long way off, so much so that, in a normal year, the Ascot PR team could've been just about certain of him showing up in a bid to drive interest and ticket sales.

His presence alone is no proof that Champions Day is doing just fine. The QEII has always attracted the best milers around. But against a backdrop of the pandemic and crowd-less racing and premature retirements and a wet autumn, this year’s card is about as good as you could hope for.

And a barnstorming win for Palace Pier would go down very nicely for all concerned.

An unbeaten superstar, trained and ridden by the Gosden-Frankie Dettori A-team, giving everyone something to remember this year’s Champions Day by; now that would be ideal for Ascot’s public relations department.

Just how bombproof is Palace Pier in the QEII on a scale of 1 to 10?

So how likely is a PP procession? One being no chance and 10 a certainty - let’s put a number on this possibility.

To determine our figure let’s look at the evidence.

1. He’s the best horse in the race. By 5lb on official figures, a rating of 126 has been achieved after just five career starts and there could conceivably be more to come.
2. He’s won at Ascot and on a straight track. Yes his St James’s Palace victory was on the round course, but he won on the straight track at Deauville and topography does not seem to be an issue.
3. He’s won on heavy ground. Palace Pier has never actually run on soft, Saturday’s likely conditions, but having won on heavy in France the ground won’t be a viable excuse.
4. He hasn’t had a long season. After just three starts in 2019, he comes in here relatively fresh and doesn’t carry the scars of a long and arduous campaign.
5. He holds his rivals on various lines of form. Collateral form giving him the beating of The Revenant is tenuous, but the rest of his closest market rivals have work to do judging by his last two wins over Pinatubo and Alpine Star.
6. Tactically, he doesn’t look vulnerable. If they go hard he’ll work his way into things from off the pace and he proved he had the gears to cope with a messier gallop when he was last seen on the Royal turf.

With the 3lb weight-for-age allowance in his favour, as well, Palace Pier will bid to become the seventh member of the Classic generation to win the QEII in the last decade, since it was moved to Champions Day – and the sixth favourite. This has been a good race for youngsters and the jollies.

Last year’s runner-up, The Revenant, looks his most fearsome rival, especially in conditions he handles well, but Palace Pier’s credentials do look very solid indeed, and we’ll give him an 8 chance on the 1-10 scale.

With that in mind, best odds of 8/11 don’t look too shabby.

Does John Gosden hold the key to the Champion Stakes as well?

You could say that, although Aidan O’Brien and particularly his Magical, gunning to retain her crown, might have something to say about it.

There are other strands to this race; the French challenger, Skalleti, who beat the Arc winner, Sottsass, over 10 furlongs in heavy ground at Deauville in August, and Pyledriver, for William Muir, who could be a player if his stamina is brought into play.

But Gosden and O'Brien have had this race between themselves the last three years and they train four of the top six in the betting this time around. It looks a vice-like grip.

Magical is a wonderfully consistent mare and has barely put a foot wrong since the backend of her three-year-old season. Since winning the Fillies & Mares at this meeting in 2018 she has been beaten only by Enable, Crystal Ocean, Ghaiyyath and when fifth in last year’s Arc, while 10 furlongs with the emphasis on stamina looks her optimum racing conditions.

She proved as much when winning this race last year from Addeybb, and with a last-time out verdict over Ghaiyyath in the bag she’ll swagger into Ascot as she goes for a third successive victory at the meeting.

Stablemate Japan’s best is better than Magical’s, but he’s had a below-par season, while Derby winner Serpentine is an intriguing contender dropping back to 10 furlongs and, on paper at least, he looks the only frontrunner in the race.

While Serpentine looks the key horse from a tactical perspective, I think it’s fair to say Magical’s best looks beatable if there’s a mid-120s or better mile-and-a-quarter horse in against her, meaning the key horses could well reside elsewhere.

And if there is such a contender they are likely to hail from Clarehaven, with Gosden fielding both the Prix du Jockey Club winner, Mishriff, and the Prince of Wales’s hero, Lord North, as he goes for a third Champion Stakes in four years soon after Cracksman’s 2017-18 double.

Mishriff hasn’t hit the heights that Magical has yet, but he’s come pretty close on his last two starts when seeing off The Summit in the French Derby and the Prix Guillaume, his latter victory coming on the type of heavy ground he breezed through at Nottingham when a 10-length winner as a juvenile.

Conditions look perfect for the son of Make Believe and he has the potential to be even better than he’s shown so far, so, with Frankie Dettori in the saddle ahead of owner Prince Faisal’s retained rider David Egan, it would be no surprise to see him wrestle favouritism back off the Ballydoyle mare.

That is not a slight on Egan in any way, merely an observation of the way Saturday markets work, especially at Ascot when Frankie is involved, probably on the back of one winner in Palace Pier, and possibly more.

If Mishriff can’t take the step up, Gosden has some back-up in Lord North who has already proven himself in open Group One company at this track at the Royal meeting, where he accounted for Addeybb and Japan in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

He was tactically versatile enough to sprint clear of his rivals off a muddling gallop that day, but he won’t mind it if Serpentine goes hard from the front and he’s proven himself in testing conditions.

With a track record of 2-2-1 he’ll enjoy the return to Ascot, too, after a trip to York in the Juddmonte International where things didn’t work out. There’s no shame in not being able to reel in Ghaiyyath, but it should be noted he lost a shoe, as well, and he’s better judged on his Prince of Wales’s form.

How vulnerable is Stradivarius after his run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?

There is a certain degree of irony to observe that Stradivarius’ Arc hopes were hit following the withdrawal of the Ballydoyle horses in Paris following the Gain Equine Nutrition fiasco two weeks ago.

Most years you could just about guarantee a big field and a strong gallop in an Arc, but that wasn’t the case in a Ballydoyle-less renewal and Stradivarius, burdened with an uncomfortable wide draw as well, was on the back foot from the get-go.

Things just didn’t pan out for him, so the QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup, just 13 days on from his Arc seventh, has become an afterthought, but still, he’s 8lb clear of his nearest rival on official ratings and finds himself odds-on to bounce back to winning ways.

I couldn’t back him at those odds, personally.

It should be remembered he’s been beaten in this race twice before, on the back of better preparations. Third to Order Of St George in 2017, he was outpaced, and second to Kew Gardens last year, he was just pipped by a top-class rival, the pair five lengths clear.

The common denominator is that man O’Brien and he could be the one to thwart the star stayer again with Dawn Patrol, Broome and particularly Sovereign interesting rivals who are all unexposed, or even untried, at the trip.

They give Stradivarius a new challenge, one that his weary legs may not be able to cope with following his recent and unsuccessful trip to Paris and the dangers don’t begin and end at Ballydoyle.

There is Dermot Weld’s Search For A Song, too, a dual Irish St Leger winner who is stepping up to two miles for the first time, and Roger Varian’s Fujaira Prince, second to the Moyglare Stud-owned filly last time and himself proven on soft ground from when he landed the Sky Bet Ebor.

I wouldn’t be quick to rule out Morando, either, who has stamina queries but also two standout career-best efforts; his six-length Cumberland Lodge demolition on soft ground at this track and an eight-length verdict over Kew Gardens himself in testing conditions in the one-mile-five-furlongs-and-a-bit-more Ormonde Stakes at Chester.

None of these rivals have Stradivarius-inflicted scars. And while he has won off a 13-day break before, this season, at Ascot, in the Gold Cup, that was a very different scenario, coming off a prep run after a long break.

His class may help him get away with it on Saturday, but there’s no doubting there is an air of vulnerability about his chance now and that doesn’t seem to be factored into his odds quite enough.

Could the shocks continue in the Champions Sprint?

The last two years the Champions Sprint has had winners at 28/1 and 33/1 and largely unfamiliar testing conditions have played their part in the upsets.

This year we have a red-hot favourite in Dream Of Dreams, a six-year-old who seems to have found a new level of consistency since a gelding operation.

A head second to Hello Youmzain in the Diamond Jubilee at this track at the Royal meeting, he’s two from two since then, a seven-length romp over seven furlongs in the Hungerford Stakes preceding his Sprint Cup victory – a first and long overdue Group One success.

The question now is whether he can back it up. We know he likes Ascot, we know he doesn’t mind soft ground and we know he gets on well with Oisin Murphy, but there is a glimmer of hope for his rivals.

In the last two renewals of this race the son of Dream Ahead has been soundly beaten. He finished 13th in 2018 and 16th last year and while those races came at the end of busier campaigns it could be that he’s just had enough by this time of year.

On top of this it’s been a slow October for Sir Michael Stoute. While he flew along in August and September with monthly strike-rates of 21 and 28 per cent, winners have been hard to come by this month as three victories from 29 runners at 10% suggests.

Slight question marks, yes, but a slither of hope for the opposition and when you consider One Master might not be quick enough for this test and Oxted might not like the ground, then suddenly another long-odds upset looks more likely than would appear at first glance.

Sonaiyla, at 20/1 in a place and 16s generally, makes plenty of each-way appeal.

The Dark Angel filly has improved hugely for the switch to Paddy Twomey’s where a tongue-tie, a visor, Billy Lee and her new surroundings have transformed her from a 80-rated handicapper into a Group One contender.

Indeed, she did tremendously well to get as close as she did to Glass Slippers in the Flying Five last time when third, on what was her first go at the top level over an inadequate trip.

It’s no wonder they’ve decided to have a pop at Ascot where the stiff track on testing ground should play very much to her strengths and in Lee she’s got a pilot who has proven himself to be clinical on the straight track at this course.

If Dream Of Dreams is on song after a lighter campaign than he’s used to he’ll be tough to beat, but if he’s not those at bigger prices come into it and the in-form Sonaiyla is more attractive than any of the others at bigger prices.

Can Ed Vaughan sign off with a bang?

Of all the potential stories on Champions Day Ed Vaughan winning the Fillies & Mares with Dame Malliot would be a tough one to top.

Since the Newmarket trainer announced he was to quit training at the end of the season, a decision he revealed in the middle of the July, he has had just the one winner, Forge Valley Lad on July 20, and is 0/40 since then.

He’s yet to win a race at the highest level in his career and has had just two runners before in UK Group Ones; Kotsi, in the 2007 Fillies’ Mile and Mehronissa in the 2016 Sprint Cup. Both ran well in fourth.

Vaughan cited the economics of training in Britain for his exit from the training ranks, so there would be some sweet irony if he could take out the near £200,000 first prize for the Fillies & Mares on Saturday with his stable star.

Dame Malliot is no stranger to bringing home the bacon. Her career prize-money has swelled this year to almost £200,000 all in after a Group Two victory at Newmarket and her Group One third in the Prix Vermeille behind Tarnawa last time out.

Those performances give her a standout form chance on Saturday, particularly that Newmarket win in the Princess of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes where she stayed on well in soft ground to easily account for course specialist Communique.

Hollie Doyle, looking for her first Group One win herself, is back in the saddle and she could well get the chance to dictate in this, especially with pace rival Manuela De Vega drawn out wide in 12.

She should have licence to make this a test, as Dame Malliot does not look to be lacking in the stamina department, so everything is there, apart from the trainer form, to set up a fairytale ending for Vaughan.

Has David O’Meara cracked the Balmoral once again?

David O’Meara first had a runner in the Balmoral Handicap when Fort Bastion was 16th in 2014, but his record in the race has somewhat improved since then.

The following year the same horse was sixth in the same race and then after that Firmament picked up the stable baton, running third in 2016.

Then came along Lord Glitters, who won the 2017 Balmoral en route to success at the top level and O’Meara almost went back-to-back as his Escobar finished a 33/1 second the following year.

That frustration was made up for 12 months ago when Escobar went one better and that horse’s absence this year, off what would’ve been from just a 3lb higher mark (he takes his chance in the QEII, instead) raises eyebrows.

Has O’Meara got another Balmoral winner up his sleeve?

He might have, as he has two chances in Orbaan and Hortzadar and both are interesting at big prices.

Orbaan is ridden by Danny Tudhope and looks the stable number one. Bought out of Andre Fabre’s yard in the pre-season, he was gelded in the interim and quickly made an impression for his new stable, winning on his second start at York.

Largely consistent since then, he remains only 3lb higher than when he won at York, he got a taste for the Ascot straight track last time out and the softest ground he’s encountered since he arrived in England could well trigger further improvement.

He’s drawn stands’ side in 20, but he’s a hold-up horse and Tudhope can tag along on the coat tails of the nearest group.

Hortzadar has a central draw and, while he looks more in the handicapper’s grip after wins off 91 and 94 in August and September (he’s now off 98, a mark from which he was beaten off at York last time out), the soft ground and a big field should also play to his strengths.

O’Meara has booked straight-track maestro Jamie Spencer for the ride.

Both are interesting, but Orbaan makes more appeal and the general 16/1 does not look bad at all for the number one pick from a stable that have strong and recent previous in this race.

Posted at 1540 BST on 15/10/2020

More Champions Day content...

• Value Bet: Champions Day tips
• Simon Holt's Champions Day tips
• Racing Podcast: Champions Day preview
• Ben Linfoot: Champions Day key questions
• Oisin Murphy: Champions Dream
• Catching Pigeons: Ascot fancies
• Timeform preview: Magical effort
• Champion Stakes preview
• Queen Elizabeth Stakes II preview
• Long Distance Cup preview
• Champions Sprint preview
• Fillies & Mares preview
• Balmoral Handicap preview
• Tom Marquand: My Champions Day rides
• Alex Hammond Blog: Champion spirit

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