Is Fact To File now the horse to beat in the Gold Cup division and could Brighterdaysahead be the real deal at two miles? Our experts look back with an eye to the future.
It was a turbulent week in the Champion Hurdle market. Where do you think the value lies?
David Ord: Well... it’s not Lossiemouth who now finds herself head of the betting despite not leaving her box at the weekend. You can’t back Constitution Hill even at 5/1, I don’t think State Man did a lot wrong other than get tired in the Morgiana. He’s rock-solid.
Sir Gino’s chasing career looks to have been shelved for this season at least but he’ll need to hurdle better than he did at Aintree to win a Champion and right now Mystical Power at 12/1 appeals most.
Willie Mullins isn’t seemingly convinced he’s Champion Hurdle material but he’s a horse who did nothing but surprise his team last term and he might just do so again. He locks horns with Sir Gino at Newcastle on Saturday and if he manages to get the job done again, he’ll be creeping up the Closutton pecking order and the ante-post list. He’s a strong traveller with a good turn of foot and at five rising six and the winner of five of his six career starts, he’s come a long way in a short space of time.
Tony McFadden: State Man suffered a very rare defeat in the Morgiana Hurdle but I was still surprised to see him drift from 11/4 to 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle on the back of what was a creditable effort on his return.
He was beaten three-quarters of a length by Brighterdaysahead but that rival, who is still unexposed and could be a genuine Champion Hurdle contender if sent down that route, had the benefit of race fitness and also had the advantage of dictating the gallop.
Given the obvious doubts about Constitution Hill's fragility, Brighterdaysahead's Festival target and whether Lossiemouth or Sir Gino can successfully step up to open company, State Man looks the solid option.
Matt Brocklebank: Turbulent is arguably something of an understatement and it’s encouraging to hear the latest Constitution Hill developments on Monday morning, with Nicky Henderson seemingly targeting the Christmas Hurdle as a realistic comeback for the horse. If you knew he’d be fit and firing on March 11 then 5/1 about Constitution Hill is probably a bit of a gift but I’ve got to trust my eyes and, sadly, he didn’t look in great shape during that racecourse gallop at Newbury the other week.
Lossiemouth offers no value at 9/4 currently and I’d be against Brighterdaysahead too at 8/1 as her jumping shouldn’t be good enough to win a Champion and I can see her running in the Mares’ Hurdle.
Sir Gino versus Mystical Power will be fascinating at the weekend but 4/1 State Man isn’t a bad price at all as he’ll come on a ton for his comeback run. It’s easy to forget that the likes of Ballyburn, Fact To File and Dancing City were all beaten at short prices during November last year and it basically happens every season - the way that Willie Mullins trains them dictates his horses are very rarely cherry-ripe before Christmas.
State Man holds the Unibet Champion Hurdle crown and is the one to beat. At a completely wild price, stablemate Absurde would be an interesting contender but it sounds like the riches of Saudi Arabia await him after his latest eyecatching run in the Melbourne Cup and you certainly can’t be sure he’ll be back at Cheltenham where he won the County Hurdle last March.
Has your view of the Cheltenham Gold Cup changed following the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase?
David Ord: In as much as the winner will be trained in Ireland... absolutely not! Look, you had to like the way Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower came out of novice company to make such an impact in open Grade One company at the very first attempt.
Both are progressive and fascinating additions to the division, but I loved the run of Galopin Des Champs in third. Considering he had to have a couple of easy weeks in the build-up after a small setback, he was entitled to need the run and it just seemed to catch him out between the final two fences.
But we know how deadly he is at both Leopardstown and Cheltenham and while dominating this scene isn’t going to be as easy as it was over the last two seasons, I think he’s still the standard-bearer. I’m in no rush to back anything at this stage but I’d still have him as favourite for the Gold Cup and not 4/1 second best.
Tony McFadden: Galopin des Champs ran better than I expected in the John Durkan so I'm probably slightly sweeter on his claims of a third Gold Cup than I was beforehand, for all Fact To File and Spilane's Tower advanced their claims.
He took a huge step forward from the John Durkan last year, producing arguably a career-best effort with a 23-length win in the Savills Chase, and a slightly interrupted preparation ahead of his return this time around offers hope he'll again be back to somewhere near his best. That best still sets the standard, even if the challengers are amassing.
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Matt Brocklebank: I'm clearly late to the party here but Galopin Des Champs looks big having been eased to 4s following what was a fine comeback run over an inadequate trip on a track that evidently doesn’t play to his strengths.
So, the repeat double (State Man in the Champion and Galopin Des Champs the Gold Cup) now pays 20/1 with all the major firms, and it’ll be half that (at least) if they both go and do what I’d expect them to do at Leopardstown over Christmas and at the DRF.
Of course, it’s rarely quite so simple and Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower add further quality to the already deep pool of staying chasers in Ireland right now, but Galopin Des Champs won last season’s Gold Cup by daylight and he’s still only going to be nine in the spring, so should still be at his peak.
Can you see a staying chaser who didn't run in the John Durkan making a big impact in the Cheltenham Gold Cup?
David Ord: Gerri Colombe is an obvious one having finished second in the race last season. He wasn’t at his best at Down Royal first time up, but Gordon Elliott will have him ready for the big days ahead and if he rolls into Prestbury Park in the same form last year he’s entitled to be right in the mix.
And I took a very positive view of Grey Dawning’s return in the Betfair Chase. He lost momentum and the race with that mistake at the final fence but the way he moved through the majority of the contest, and his jumping in the main, suggested he was capable of developing into a genuine top-notcher.
He was in significantly calmer waters than those over the Irish Sea a day later and being the best of the British might not be the claim it once was but he is just that, capable of better and will be one of the last off the bridle in March.
Tony McFadden: I was really taken by how Grey Dawning jumped and travelled for much of the Betfair Chase before a slog in the mud, and a tired mistake at the last, took its toll.
He'll need to raise his game against the pick of the Irish stayers, but he still retains some untapped potential. Maybe he won't be good enough but his bold jumping and strong-travelling style should ensure he gives a good account in a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Matt Brocklebank: I wouldn't want to put anyone off Monty’s Star at 20/1 but my left-field suggestion would be the Tom Gibney-trained Intense Raffles (33/1), the grey who won three from three during his novice chase campaign, culminating in an impressive success in the Irish Grand National.
Granted, he was defying a mark of 140 at Fairyhouse but he looks a classy operator over extended distances and it’s hard to know just how high he could climb given the right circumstances as he’s still open to so much improvement.
Aintree is reportedly the main target this time around but he’ll be asked some sizeable questions along the way and if he continues to progress as hoped then Cheltenham might just come on his radar too.
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