Cazoo Derby preview and 1-2-3 verdict | Betting guide to the Epsom Classic

How volatile could the market be in the lead up to the race?

The betting for the Cazoo Derby revolves around Desert Crown who has been favourite for the race ever since his impressive reappearance victory in the Dante Stakes at York.

Heavily backed in the last week or so, too, he’s a general 7/4 chance and as short as 5/4 – which seems incredibly short for all that he has very hard to crab credentials.

One notable trend ahead of Desert Crown’s first two racecourse starts is that he has drifted quite markedly in the build-up to both of his races and with the Derby money down early it would be no surprise if he did so again.

If you’re not on at bigger prices, and you want to be with the favourite, waiting until Derby day morning could be the best way to get with him now, as I’m sure a handful of bookies will be puffing their chests out trying to get this inexperienced jolly beat.

As for those who could shorten, the double-figure prices about Frankie Dettori’s mount Piz Badile could soon be a thing of the past, while I wouldn’t be too shocked to see money for Charlie Appleby’s Walk Of Stars.

Beaten narrowly in the Lingfield Derby Trial, a race that Anthony Van Dyck won before triumphing at Epsom, the Dubawi colt has a very similar profile to last year’s winner Adayar (second at Lingfield), who halved in price on Derby day before winning 12 months ago.

What’s required from stalls one and two?

All you have to do is watch the first two furlongs of the last two renewals to see how stall one can be a killer, as well as what is required to prevail.

In 2020 Frankie Dettori was soon on the back foot on English King, who veered out to his left upon leaving the starting gates, losing vital ground and resulting in a pretty hopeless early position that he could never recover from.

Last year Adam Kirby decided to hurry Adayar into a prominent position from the same stall and that proved crucial in the final analysis as he landed a first Derby for himself and a second in four years for Godolphin.

He was the first winner from the inside stall in 23 years, since Kieren Fallon’s textbook ride on Sir Henry Cecil’s Oath in 1999, a smooth-as-you-like display in the saddle.

From the last 160 races over Epsom’s 1m4f course nine winners have broken from stall one and eight from stall two, with gates 3-9 all amassing double-figure winners in that timeframe (in chronological order starting from three: 16, 15, 12, 16, 20, 10, 17).

It is harder from stalls one and two but it can be done. Royal Patronage (one) and Westover (two) have it slightly tougher and are relying on the bounce of the ball going their way – meaning a superb ride from either Jason Hart or Rob Hornby is likely to be required.

What else does recent history point to?

Aidan O’Brien, Galileo and Charlie Appleby.

O’Brien has won the race on eight occasions, including six of the last 10 renewals, with his last three winners all considered back-up to his supposed first-string in the betting.

Galileo has sired the Derby winner on a record five occasions, four of them trained by O’Brien, while he was the grand-sire of Masar (by New Approach) and Adayar (by Frankel). He’s either the sire or grand-sire to 11 of this year’s field.

Charlie Appleby has done his best to penetrate this Ballydoyle domination, winning two of the last four Derbies with the aforementioned Masar and Adayar.

It’s notable they were by sons of Galileo, rather than Godolphin’s principal stallion, Dubawi, who is 0/11 in the Epsom Classics. The bottom line is not many have got there, but his overall Epsom record (29/114 at 25.44%) is excellent.

This year Appleby runs two horses by sons of Galileo; Nahanni (by Frankel) and Nations Pride (by Teofilo) and one by Dubawi (Walk Of Stars).

Another son of Galileo, Nathaniel, has only had two runners in the Derby before, his best finishing position being ninth. He has won the Oaks, though, of course, with Enable, and Desert Crown will bid to become his first Derby winner on Saturday.

He would be a sixth Derby winner for Sir Michael Stoute, who last won the race with Workforce in 2010. Since then he’s only had three runners in the race, the last being Across The Stars and Ulysses, both unplaced in 2016.

How’s the race likely to be run and who could it suit?

There looks to be no shortage of early pace in this year’s renewal.

Changingoftheguard looks the most obvious front-running angle given his improvement under forcing tactics this year, while stablemate Stone Age has made all for his two victories at three, too.

Add in all-the-way Blue Riband Trial winner Nahanni, plus from-the-front Nottingham novice winner West Wind Blows and the gallop looks likely to be a good one.

Ryan Moore will be eager to get into a good position early from stall four on Stone Age and although he's made running twice this year he won't mind taking a lead off his better-drawn stablemates.

If the pace-setters go too hard it could play into the hands of the strong-travelling Desert Crown who was held-up to great effect at York.

What if there's a deluge of rain?

Most forecasts are predicting largely dry weather in the build-up to the Derby, while some are saying rain from around half an hour before the big race.

Whatever happens, it's good to have a soft-ground horse up your sleeve. I've been at Epsom when the heavens have opened out of nowhere on a couple of occasions - Enable and Snowfall's Oaks victories spring to mind.

I don't think rain would particularly inconvenience any of the fancied horses, but if the ground did turn soft it would likely enhance the claims of Changingoftheguard.

His career-best victory in the Chester Vase came on soft ground and he loved ploughing through the Roodee mud that day on the front end. I'd expect a market move for him should the heavens open.

What does untangling the form lines tell us?

Desert Crown beat Royal Patronage by over three lengths in the Dante and the latter has a real job on to reverse that form.

Bluegrass was almost six lengths behind the winner at York and he was five and a half lengths behind Piz Badile in the Ballysax. Duke De Sessa finished a length and a quarter in front of Bluegrass in that race but was then beaten nine and a quarter lengths by Stone Age in the Leopardstown Derby Trial (Glory Daze was five and a half lengths behind the winner in second).

Star Of India improved significantly up in trip in the Dee Stakes, beating Sonny Liston two and a half lengths, a horse who was previously beaten nearly six lengths by Guineas fourth Eydon in the Feilden.

Westover beat Goldspur a length in the Sandown Classic Trial, the Godolphin third having finished a length and a quarter off Stone Age in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at two. Goldspur had previously beaten Bluegrass three and a half lengths in the Zetland.

Hafit was third in that race and he finished a neck behind stablemate Walk Of Stars at Newbury. Berkshire Rebel was a six and a quarter length third that day and he was subsequently beaten 13 lengths by Changingoftheguard at Chester.

Also behind Westover at Sandown was Franz Strauss, beaten 10 lengths. He was beaten almost seven lengths by West Wind Blows at Nottingham.

Nahanni beat Grand Alliance half a length in the Blue Riband Trial with United Nations, a three-quarter length winner over Walk Of Stars at Lingfield, back in fourth.

Nations Pride beat Hoo Ya Mal seven lengths at Newmarket, with Andrew Balding’s horse previously beating Star Of India in the Craven. Balding also runs Masekela, withdrawn from the Dante after getting upset in the stalls, who has been beaten by Royal Patronage and Eydon.

So, yep. Erm, here are the Timeform ratings…

What’s the best way to play the Derby?

Even in the knowledge that four of the last five winners have returned SPs of 40/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 16/1, it’s rare to have two horses with as good a claims as Desert Crown and Stone Age.

Both of them not running to form seems unlikely and I find it hard to believe one of them won’t be in the first two.

STONE AGE looks slightly underestimated in the betting compared to Desert Crown and on that line through Bluegrass I doubt there’s going to be an awful lot between them. Add in the idea that he could get the run of things sitting off the shoulder of Changingoftheguard and he becomes a tempting proposition for the O’Brien/Galileo axis. I'll be backing him at 4/1-plus.

He looks a 1m4f horse all over and the one nagging doubt about Desert Crown is that he might be considered a 10-furlong specialist come the season’s end. He looked so smooth over that trip in the Dante and could travel the best here only to be outpointed by a better-positioned rival (Stone Age?)

As for the O’Brien B-Team, Star Of India has the look of an underrated improver and he could well reward each-way support after improving significantly for the step up in trip at Chester.

Verdict:

1. STONE AGE
2. Desert Crown
3. Star Of India

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