Cazoo Derby | Timeform ratings analysis on Desert Crown and Stone Age

By John Ingles

Horse Racing

Mon May 16, 2022 · 3y ago

Now that the main trials have been run, John Ingles assesses what the leading Derby contenders have achieved on Timeform ratings.

In just the last week, a rather muddled Derby pictured has become a good deal clearer. No sooner had the long-time ante-post favourite Luxembourg been ruled out of the race with a setback by Aidan O’Brien than he was replaced at the head of the betting by stablemate Stone Age, a convincing winner at Leopardstown. But Stone Age only held that position for a matter of days before Desert Crown shot to favouritism after winning at least as impressively at York.

The betting has these two colts as the pair to beat at Epsom but how much do they need to find to reach the level of a typical Derby winner?

The mean Timeform rating for the last ten Derby winners is 125.4, with Adayar (2021) and Golden Horn (2015) being the two best in that period, with ratings on bare form of 130 each before having extra added for the ease of success. The median rating for a Derby winner in the last ten years is similar at 125.5.

In the absence of Luxembourg, Desert Crown (121p) and Stone Age (118p) are two highest-rated colts in the Derby picture, and while both can be expected to improve over the longer trip they have contrasting profiles.

With just two races under his belt, Desert Crown is lacking in experience, though you wouldn’t really have known it from the calm way he handled the preliminaries at York and then dismissed more battle-hardened rivals in the Dante Stakes when quickening clear to win by three and a quarter lengths.

The winner of his only start at two, Desert Crown has a similar profile to Workforce, the most recent of his trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s four Derby winners, though Workforce was beaten in the Dante on the way to Epsom.

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Ballydoyle’s main contender Stone Age is much more experienced having run five times as a two-year-old. It’s a bit academic now that he failed to win any of those races, though he was campaigned like a top colt regardless, finishing second in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final outing last year behind El Bodegon who disappointed on his return in the Dante.

Typically for a son of Galileo, he has developed into a much better three-year-old and has won both his races this year by clear margins, notably when making all in Leopardstown’s Derby Trial.

Given the difference in how much racing the pair have had, it’s Sir Michael Stoute’s colt, Desert Crown, who can be expected to have the more improvement in him, for all that the recent Derby record of Stone Age’s trainer Aidan O'Brien, as well as his sire, Galileo, is second to none.

Desert Crown and Stone Age have less to spare on ratings over their would-be rivals than the betting suggests, however.

Close behind on ratings is the Roger Varian-trained Eydon (116p) who, in Luxembourg’s absence, represents the 2000 Guineas form. He finished a place behind Luxembourg at Newmarket, keeping on in fourth, and is a good type physically with further improvement to come, but while he has won over nine furlongs, he’s not certain to benefit from the Derby trip.

That won’t be a concern for Ballydoyle’s Chester Vase winner Changingoftheguard (115), who made all to win unchallenged over the mile and a half on soft ground at Chester. However, in what was already a four-runner field, the failure of hot favourite New London (111p) to handle the track made it a still weaker trial.

Even so, Changingoftheguard achieved a bit more than two more sons of Galileo from Ballydoyle who won their Listed trials. Star of India (110p) landed the Dee Stakes at Chester, and United Nations (109p) – another who overturned a Godolphin favourite, Walk of Stars (108p) - took the Derby Trial at Lingfield.

Point Lonsdale (114) was a smart two-year-old and even though he’s by another of his stable’s former Derby winners Australia, he’s slipped a few places in the Ballydoyle pecking order this spring having finished down the field in the 2000 Guineas.

Only a short head split Piz Badile (115p) and Buckaroo (115), trained by Donnacha and Joseph O’Brien respectively, in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in early-April. The latter has strayed off the Derby path somewhat by dropping back successfully to a mile since then, having looked more of a stayer earlier on, but the winner is arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten and with more to come after just three starts would be an interesting runner at Epsom where his relative Light Shift won the Oaks.

Last year’s Derby winner Adayar finished second in Sandown’s Classic Trial and the first two from that contest this year, Westover (113p) and Cash (113p) are others to mention. There was just a short head between them at Sandown, and, given it was just the runner-up’s second start, it could be that David Simcock’s colt has the more progress to make of that pair.

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