British Champions Day: Ascot tips and hints

Are fresh runners a punting angle on Champions Day?

I was pounding the treadmill when I first wondered if having fresh legs might be an advantage on QIPCO British Champions Day. No idea why I was thinking of feeling fresh at the time, but it was enough to hit the big red button and get back to the laptop to search through the 66 Champions Day races.

With all 11 renewals of Champions Day coming in the middle of October, eight weeks seems a reasonable timeframe to count as fresh. That takes us to the middle of August and means missing all those opportunities at Doncaster, Ireland and France during September, where there are Group races aplenty.

And drilling down to the ‘at least 56 days since last run’ Champions Day runners suggests it’s no negative to come into Ascot having missed the likes of Town Moor, Irish Champions Weekend and Arc weekend at ParisLongchamp.

The eight weeks and longer absent crew have returned 15 winners from 139 runners at Champions Day, a strike-rate of 10.79%, while those that have run within those eight weeks, a much larger pool of horses, are 51 wins from 744 at a strike-rate of 6.85%.

Perhaps this is simply a case of a smaller group of horses slightly outperforming a much bigger pool of horses. And, while you could rightly argue 56 days is an arbitrary number, plucked from the scrambled mind of an unfit man struggling to go 10km an hour on a running machine, there had to be a line somewhere, and I just wanted to gauge that the freshness angle wasn’t complete nonsense.

I don’t think it is. And, crucially, many of the fresh 15 put up remarkable performances on the back of a break.

The fresh 15 include the best of the best

The one trainer who has excelled above all others with horses coming into Champions Day fresh is Dermot Weld, who trained three of the 15.

Rite Of Passage was the most impressive training performance by a mile, as the son of Giant’s Causeway defied an absence of 510 days before he won the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup at odds of 8/1 under an inspired ride from the late Pat Smullen in 2012.

At the same meeting Weld saddled Sapphire to win the Fillies’ & Mares’ off the back of a 78-day break, while two years later he was at it again in the Long Distance Cup, this time with Forgotten Rules, who went into the race on the back of 78 days off.

While those three were good, none of the trio made it into the Timeform Top 10 Champions Day performances, all of which were rated 130+, but six of the fresh 15 were.

WATCH: Log-in for free to see Rite Of Passage's Champions Day win

We still can’t talk about Champions Day without mentioning Frankel and his two wins at the meeting, the two highest-rated victories in 11 years of the concept, came on the back of 80-day and 59-day breaks ahead of his QEII masterclass and Champion Stakes swansong, respectively.

Frankel’s son, Cracksman, won the Champion Stakes twice and both were equal third in the Timeform Top 10, while his second win, a six-length demolition job over Crystal Ocean in 2018, came on the back of 122 days off the track.

Muhaarar’s 2015 Champions Sprint victory, fifth in the Timeform list, heralded the start of the race’s new Group 1 status and he did it in style, putting in a career-best performance to see off Twilight Son by two lengths having had 69 days off the track.

That absence was the exact same time Excelebration had off before his three-length QEII romp in 2012, also in the TFT10, which leaves Farhh’s 2013 Champion Stakes. Rated 130 by Timeform, squeezing him into the 10, Saeed bin Suroor’s horse was very fresh, winning after 154 days off – while he’d only had the one run since the previous September.

The 15 Champions Day winners that had 8 weeks or more off (56 days+)

Rite Of Passage (510 days since last run), Farhh (154), Cracksman (122), Noble Mission (83), Solow (80), Frankel (80), Forgotten Rules (78), Sapphire (76), Excelebration (69), Muhaarar (69), Dancing Rain (69), Librisa Breeze (63), Frankel (59), Eshaada (58), Stradivarius (57).

The rest of the fresh 15 didn’t make into the top-class bracket but many won narrowly after tough battles. That is best underlined by Frankel’s brother Noble Mission, who edged out Al Kazeem by a neck in a heavy ground Champion Stakes in 2014.

Freddy Head’s Solow stayed on well to hold Belardo by less than a length in the 2015 QEII. Dancing Rain made all under Johnny Murtagh in the inaugural Fillies’ & Mares’. Librisa Breeze won his Champions Sprint after just over two months off.

Stradivarius was beaten on four Champions Days but his only victory came after his longest break of 57 days. And last year two daughters of Muhaarar, Eshaada and Albaflora, pulled over three lengths clear in the Fillies’ & Mares’, both having had 58 days since their last runs.

Who appeals after a 56+ day break this year?

The first thing to note is that several of this year’s most-fancied runners come into the meeting on the back of eight weeks or more off.

For starters, the day’s poster boy, Baaeed, the 1/4 favourite for the Champion Stakes, goes into the meeting fresh, after 59 days off, his last run coming in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York on August 17.

The card’s other odds-on favourite, Inspiral, in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, has had similar time off having not been seen since her win in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville, 62 days ago.

Her stablemate Emily Upjohn isn’t as short for the Fillies’ & Mares’, but she’s favourite at 7/2 and her last run was 84 days ago, when she ran a poor race in the King George on July 23.

And then there’s Creative Force, 5/2 favourite for the Champions Sprint, last year’s winner arriving for his title defence following 98 days off the track, since he was last seen finishing fourth in the July Cup.

In the Balmoral, Migration and Astro King look interesting after absences. So does Fantastic Fox given he should get his easier ground.

But if there’s one horse I want to back with the freshness angle in mind it’s GARRUS, available at 33/1 (Hills) for the Champions Sprint, or 25s more generally.

Charlie Hills would’ve had a good few to pick from for this race, but it’s no surprise he has aimed Garrus at the contest following the two best runs of his career at Deauville in the summer.

A dominant Group 3 win was followed by a tremendous third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest (see YouTube video, above), where the form of those that finished around him, namely Highfield Princess, Minzaal and Rohaan, has been franked in spectacular style.

He won’t mind any easing of the ground and he comes into this after 69 days off – exactly the same number of days Muhaarar had off before Hills won the Champions Sprint with him (he had won the Maurice de Gheest on his previous start).

And Garrus loves it when he’s fresh. He’s won off 165, 575 and 50-day breaks, while running well following his two other most significant absences, as well.

There’s nothing fresh about me on a treadmill. But absence will make the heart grow fonder if the haven’t-been-seen-in-a-few-months contingent dominate Champions Day on Saturday.

The 20 qualifiers this year:

Long Distance Cup

• Baron Samedi 175 days off, Trawlerman 56 days off

Champion Sprint

• Brad The Brief 147 days off, Creative Force 98 days off, Garrus 69 days off, Perfect Power 69 days off

Fillies' & Mares'

• Emily Upjohn 84 days off

QEII

• Inspiral 62 days off

Champion Stakes

• Baaeed 59 days off, Bay Bridge 105 days off, Helvic Dream 146 days off, Mac Swiney 112 days off, My Prospero 91 days off

Balmoral Handicap

• Migration 182 days off, Bashkirova 56 days off, Montatham 364 days off, Astro King 83 days off, Fantastic Fox 122 days off, Ghaly 85 days off, Lawful Command 78 days off

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