Breeders' Cup Tips: How strong is the European challenge at Del Mar? Race previews & star ratings

It’s a question you’re like to hear a fair bit over the next day or two as the Thoroughbred World Championships return to the unique venue of Del Mar this Friday and Saturday.

European participation in the dirt races will be non-existent, which is perfectly understandable though a fraction disappointing all the same, while there are significant factors at play when it comes to the chances of success on the turf track.

Firstly, a heavy-ground Arc and typically well supported British Champions Day just a fortnight later has clearly contributed to one or two 2021 aces not making the long trip to Southern California. Torquator Tasso never looked likely to show, despite the announcement over him staying in training next year, while Adayar and Sealiway took in both Longchamp and Ascot, which has left Tarnawa as the overseas flag-bearer almost by default.

She rapidly developed into the darling of Keeneland 12 months ago, winning the turf in brilliant fashion for Dermot Weld, the Aga Khan and Ireland’s champion jockey Colin Keane, and returns to the US having lost very little - other than her unbeaten sequence – in two narrow defeats at the highest level during September and October.

Tarnawa is joined by a couple of others back to defend their Breeders’ Cup titles in Audarya (Filly & Mare Turf) and Glass Slippers (Turf Sprint), while the betting suggests Space Blues may be the leading light for a handpicked Charlie Appleby-Godolphin squad. Appleby runners were conspicuous by their absence last November, but the man with three Breeders' Cup winners and one second from just seven runners dating back to Outstrip in 2013 is back with a classy-looking sextet, who have fared exceptionally well with the draw.

The other major potential stumbling block for the Europeans is that the American turf scene has been getting stronger and stronger over the past decade, primarily due to Chad Brown’s brilliance when it comes to sourcing and conditioning the type of animal previously overlooked in North America, but he’s ably supported by the likes of Wesley Ward, Brad Cox and Christophe Clement, who will all make things tough for the raiding party this weekend.

When the BC jamboree last visited the 'Surfside Race Place' in 2017, the Euros picked up a respectable three winners. They matched that tally at Churchill Downs in 2018, were humbled with the solitary success at Santa Anita in 2019, before bagging all four of the major turf races on the Saturday last year.

Here’s a look at the main contenders on their way to America, complete with star ratings when it comes to overall expectations...

FUTURE STARS FRIDAY

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (21:50 GMT)

Since European horses filled the first four places in this race on the Saturday undercard in 2017 and it subsequently became part of the official BC programme, the Americans have won all three editions.

The speed at which US juveniles tend to break from the stalls is a pretty frightening proposition and the idea of picking off rivals late in this five-furlong dash on rattling-quick ground around a near-hairpin bend just isn’t a realistic one. Wes Ward won it in 2019 before doubling up in 2020 and he’s got Twilight Gleaming and the unbeaten Averly Jane with outstanding claims this week.

I've long been a fan of Twilight Jet and he generally shows good gate speed so could be able to maximise his position from stall one, but the other Euros could be left for dead.

• Twilight Jet (Michael O’Callaghan) 🌟🌟🌟
• Armor (Richard Hannon) 🌟🌟
• Go Bears Go (David Loughnane) 🌟
• Hierarchy (Hugo Palmer) 🌟
• Vertiginous (Brian Meehan) 🌟
• Thunder Love (George Boughey) 🌟

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (22:30)

NA

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (23:10)

The inclination would suggest British and Irish runners should do well in this spot but the roll of honour is quite a sorry tale, the home runners winning the past seven, and 11 of the 13 renewals to date.

When Aidan O’Brien doesn’t consider himself to have a suitable juvenile filly – he’s had at least one runner every year since 2014 – you begin to get the picture and while fairly promising from a domestic perspective after her Prestige Stakes win (Hello You back in fourth) and fair fourth in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last time, Mise En Scene might just not have the sufficient nous to pull it off for fledgling trainer James Ferguson.

• Mise En Scene (James Ferguson) 🌟🌟🌟
• Hello You (David Loughnane) 🌟🌟
• Malavath (Francis-Henri Graffard) 🌟🌟
• Cachet (George Boughey) 🌟
• Crazyland (Clive Cox) 🌟

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (23:50)

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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (00:30)

A much better record for the Euros here, with the prize going back across the Pond on eight separate occasions. The last two years it has stayed at home, but there hasn’t been a huge amount of hype around either of Chad Brown’s entrants - Domestic Spending and Haughty - this time around.

The race has a pretty remarkable record for producing top-class three-year-olds in Europe, Masar, Anthony Van Dyck and Sealiway having all learnt a huge amount from the experience after being well beaten here in recent seasons.

It can be a really rough rodeo and having a few runs under the belt has consequently got to be a good thing, which sways preference away from Dubawi Legend (stall 14) and Glounthaune (stall eight), and more towards the Appleby pair, who were drawn one and two.

Both are proven on good to firm going and both have had a handful of starts yet still been kept fresh for this since September. Albahr booked his ticket in good style at Woodbine, but MODERN GAMES definitely achieved more in winning the Somerville Stakes at Newmarket, and he should have the extra gears having only raced over seven furlongs to this point.

Click here to back Modern Games with Sky Bet

• Modern Games (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Albahr (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟
• Dubawi Legend (Hugo Palmer) 🌟🌟🌟
• Glounthaune (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟
• Great Max (Michael Bell) 🌟

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (19:05 GMT)

NA

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (19:40)

Glass Slippers has got the T-shirt and the trophy and there was no fluke about her becoming the first European to ever win this event last year, but five furlongs on baked Southern Californian ground poses a different question entirely (was officially good going on the sprint course at Keeneland).

That would also have to be at least a small concern for Abbaye winner A Case Of You, who looked to be going nowhere fast around the halfway stage in Paris, leaving the title-holder’s stablemate Emaraaty Ana as the possibly most viable option from the travelling contingent.

He’ll need a blistering gallop to chase, and luck in running like never before from stall two with the prospect of being buried early, but could still come unstuck against Ward's power-packed Golden Pal, who proved his Nunthorpe effort all wrong with a striking victory at Keeneland last month and has been all the rage for this since.

• Emaraaty Ana (Kevin Ryan) 🌟🌟🌟
• A Case Of You (Adrian McGuinness) 🌟🌟
• Glass Slippers (Kevin Ryan) 🌟🌟

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (20:19)

NA

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (20:59)

An interesting complexion to this, a race in which British or Irish runners have emerged on top in four of the last five years.

It’s an event that can be tweaked quite markedly from venue to venue and even the last time Del Mar hosted, the race was run over just nine furlongs - two furlongs shorter than this year’s edition.

The longer trip, coupled with her stablemates lining up for a berth in the Turf, has clearly tempted team Ballydoyle into aiming Love here and despite not living up to expectations yet this year, I’d just about have her above last year’s winner Audarya in the Euro pecking order, especially with stalls six and 12 respectively.

Audarya was only fourth to Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera last time, though the French filly won’t be getting her preferred ground here and if there is to be an upset then it could come from Ger Lyons’ beautifully-bred Acanella (stall three), who is from the same family as Enable and whose dam is a half-sister to former Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up Flintshire. She was unlucky not to finish closer at Leopardstown over Irish Champions Weekend and found the drop back to a mile dead against her on that occasion too.

• Love (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Acanella (Ger Lyons) 🌟🌟🌟
• Audarya (James Fanshawe) 🌟🌟🌟
• Rougir (Cedric Rossi) 🌟🌟
• Ocean Road (Hugo Palmer) 🌟🌟
• La Joconde (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟
• Queen Supreme (Andrew Balding) 🌟

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (21:38)

NA

Breeders’ Cup Mile (22:20)

An extraordinary piece of training saw Aidan O’Brien responsible for the first three home in 2020 but he’s down to just the one dart 12 months on, in the rather luckless Mother Earth.

She’s held her form remarkably well all year, in fairness, and anyone willing to suggest she’s probably had enough for the year by this stage is a braver soul than I. Having said that, the campaign Charlie Appleby has mapped out for SPACE BLUES looks calculated to a tee and there’s a strong suggestion he will be retired on the spot – win, lose or draw in Del Mar.

The late-maturing Dubawi has just about all you’d want to see in a BC Mile contender, namely a push-button change of gear, high-class form at shorter distances, plus versatility in terms of ground conditions. On top of that, he got gate three at Monday's draw which looks perfect.

The price went long ago with him as potential rivals started to fall by the wayside, but from this standpoint it’s going to take a particularly rough trip to prevent him going very close to signing off in the best possible style on Saturday. The big home hope, Mo Forza, is a late closer too so this is going to be fun to watch either way.

Space Blues' stablemate Master Of The Seas is better than he was able to show in the QEII, having been too keen for his own good, and also deserves a positive mention given he should be at home on quick terrain.

Click here to back Space Blues with Sky Bet

• Space Blues (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Mother Earth (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Master Of The Seas (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟
• Pearls Galore (Paddy Twomey) 🌟🌟
• Real Appeal (Jessica Harrington) 🌟🌟
• Toro Strike (Richard Fahey) 🌟🌟
• Pogo (Charles Hills) 🌟
• Thunder Moon (Joseph O’Brien) 🌟
• Queen Supreme (Andrew Balding) 🌟

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (23:00)

NA

Breeders’ Cup Turf (23:40)

Tarnawa is going to be a pretty short price here and, with only High Chaparral and Conduit able to go back-to-back in the Turf since its inception (1984), the cute move would obviously be to take her on after an apparently gruelling effort in the Arc.

As touched upon, there was some juice in the ground on the sprint track at Keeneland last year but it's important to stress the round course was riding firm, while Tarnawa's form over 10 furlongs both this year and last is enough to suggest she can cope with more of a speed test at Del Mar anyway.

She also sets a clear standard in terms of bare form on her fine effort behind St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes and gallant second in France, though her come from behind run-style might not be ideally suited to the ultra-short home straight here and stall 13 looks challenging.

With Yibir maybe even further back (stall 10) in the early stages, and Teona (12) clearly more than a shade flattered by beating a waning Snowfall and La Joconde in the Prix Vermeille, WALTON STREET looks the one to be on at the odds from a better post position in seven.

He’s got bags of experience from all manner of tracks around the world including Meydan, Lingfield, Hoppegarten and Woodbine. The seven-year-old looked better than ever when slamming Desert Encounter (who had got closer to Teona at Windsor the time before) by almost six lengths in the Canadian International when last sighted.

Crucially, he likes to race on or just off the speed and could hold a massive positional advantage when the cards are being played heading into the final bend.

He ran a good race when fourth behind Mishriff and Chrono Genesis in the Sheema Classic earlier in the year, likes top of the ground and looks a typical Appleby-trained traveller after the autumn layoff. For some reason, he is being overlooked in the market.

Click here to back Walton Street with Sky Bet

• Walton Street (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Tarnawa (Dermot Weld) 🌟🌟🌟🌟
• Teona (Roger Varian) 🌟🌟🌟
• Yibir (Charlie Appleby) 🌟🌟🌟
• Bolshoi Ballet (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟
• Japan (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟🌟
• Broome (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟
• Mogul (Aidan O’Brien) 🌟

Breeders’ Cup Classic (00:40)

NA

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