The pre-entries are out for the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland and our expert Matt Brocklebank is backing an Aidan O'Brien-trained three-year-old to shine.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Breeders' Cup
1pt win Tuesday in Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at 11/1 (Coral) - 10/1 General fine
Aidan O’Brien’s string hitting the track in a morning has become one of the enduring images of Breeders’ Cup week for those of us this side of the Atlantic, and the trainer with 13 previous winners at America’s biggest meeting will be more determined than ever heading to Keeneland after drawing a blank at Del Mar 12 months ago.
The focus has clearly shifted in recent years to Charlie Appleby and what Godolphin have opted to take, but it’s not often O'Brien’s three-year-olds are overlooked in the betting and both Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf contenders appear to have the capacity to shorten as the spotlight steadily shines more brightly on the European raiding party over the next 10 days.
The beautifully-bred Toy looked happier back down in trip when winning grittily at Listed level at Naas earlier in the month, and I’m sure she’s sitting on a sizeable amount of further improvement over this sort of trip, but TUESDAY has genuine claims of being right among the market leaders on her best form, and she’s the standout antepost bet across the two days at this stage.
As O’Brien kept stressing earlier in the year, Tuesday is a young three-year-old having been a June foal and it was actually on her third birthday that she beat recent Champions Day heroine Emily Upjohn to win the Oaks at Epsom.
Granted, she was quite fortunate on the day due to the runner-up missing the kick and ultimately having to cover far more ground, but it’s strong form all the same as the front two came three and a quarter-lengths clear of Nashwa, who heads to Keeneland as the warm favourite on the back of winning the Nassau Stakes and finishing second in the Prix de l’Opera.
Tuesday has had a relatively mixed time of things since Epsom, the Irish Oaks flop seemingly a sign that she needed a break, before coming back in August with what was just about a career-best run in finishing a length second to Arc winner Alpinista in the Yorkshire Oaks, despite racing too keenly early on.
After again overdoing it in the early stages of the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp, I was initially a bit disappointed with her latest effort when switched back to 10 furlongs in the Prix de l’Opera, although on reflection I’m willing to give her a pass there too on account of the pretty desperate ground.
Tuesday’s sister Minding, who also won the Oaks, famously dropped back in distance at the end of her Classic campaign to bag the QEII over a mile at Ascot on Champions Day, and I’d maintain there are top-class races around 10 furlongs to be won with her once she gets a better racing surface.
Nine and a half around Keeneland potentially looks sharp enough on paper, but the natural speed looked to be there when placed in both Guineas (Newmarket/Curragh) in the spring, and I refuse to believe this daughter of Galileo has peaked on the back of two slightly low-key runs in testing conditions.
She’s beaten Nashwa once already this year and simply looks too big a price when it comes to repeating the feat in the States on November 5.
Published at 1820 BST on 26/10/22
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