Breeders’ Cup cheat sheet: 10 tips and things you need to know before betting at Santa Anita

Banker of the weekend

A decade on from Zenyatta becoming the first female to win the Classic, the stage appears set for another filly to take superstar billing at the Breeders’ Cup here at Santa Anita.

Midnight Bisou showed tons of ability at three, winning five of her nine starts in a pretty mad campaign spanning 11 months of the year, and two trainers some 1500 miles apart.

The move from Bill Spawr (Southern California) to Steve Asmussen (Texas) didn’t upset her one bit and she went down fighting when a fast-finishing third to Monomoy Girl in last year's Distaff at Churchill Downs.

But 2019 has been a real coming-of-age season for the daughter of dual Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Midnight Lute - seven starts, seven wins, three Grade Ones.

She thrives on action and, despite coming to the end of another long term, has never looked better than last time out in Belmont Park’s Beldame Stakes. That represented her second success over last year’s Distaff runner-up Wow Cat this season, and it simply looks a case of her now being on another level entirely.

Asmussen shipped in to California in early-October to get his ace acclimatised and race-ready, a tried-and-tested policy that worked well for the trainer's 2017 Classic hero, Gun Runner, in Del Mar.

Granted, Midnight Bisou hasn’t raced on this circuit since the east-to-west stable switch last summer, but don’t let that put you away.

Her record at Santa Anita for previous connections? A perfect 3-3.

One to be wary of

How do you fancy two for the price of one?

Future Stars Friday's feature – the Juvenile – is to be billed as an old skool dust-up between east and west in Dennis’ Moment and Eight Rings, representing Dale Romans and Bob Baffert respectively.

Hall of Famer Baffert is comparing his colt to some fine previous winners of this race, while Churchill Downs’ all-time most successful trainer Romans already has his sights fixed on the Kentucky Derby trail with big Den.

Romans knows a thing or two about the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile too, having missed out by a neck with Classic Empire in 2016.

"I think we are all looking at a potential future star," he said, following Dennis’ Moment’s staggering 19 and a half-length maiden win at Ellis Park.

But he and Eight Rings both share a blot on their copybook, form strings arguably more commonly associated with novice hurdlers at Wetherby - U11 and 1U1.

Granted, the ones are really good ones, but the Us are unsettling, and they shouldn’t be overlooked before playing at skinny prices with so much potential elsewhere in the field.

One for the turf

Europeans have dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf, with nine of the last 11 winners coming from over the Atlantic, but there’s an obvious, ever-growing romance with American trainers and racing on the green stuff.

Chad Brown is primarily responsible for moving the goalposts with his utter domination of the higher-grade turf scene stateside, and his team heading to Southern California from Saratoga is considerable in size and strength.

Sistercharlie and Bricks And Mortar are the Brown pin-ups in the Filly & Mare Turf and Turf respectively, while his next wave of stars looks likely to include the likes of Uni in the Mile and Selflessly in Friday's Juvenile Fillies Turf, a race he's won five times including the last three courtesy of New Money Honey, Rushing Fall and Newspaperofrecord 12 months ago.

But you won't be getting much bang for your buck at the windows following the crowds in following Brown's turf horses this weekend. And on closer inspection, Selflessly might struggle to confirm her recent superiority over Crystalle, who looks a cool horse to root for from a lesser-known yard in John Kimmel.

She's gangly and she's gawky and she's seemingly not the greatest from the gate, but Crystalle has an amazing, raking, late turn of speed. Have a glance at the replay of the Grade Two Miss Grillo Stakes below and see for yourself how she really could - and possibly should - have beaten Selflessly.

Prior to that she left it late again but this time got up snugly from Todd Pletcher's subsequent Jessamine Stakes winner, Sweet Melania, in the P.G. Johnson. Sweet Melania is now 5/1 co-favourite for Breeders' Cup glory, while Crystalle trades at twice that.

The Europeans obviously bring some smart form to this race in the shape of Jessica Harrington's Marcel Boussac heroine Albigna and Roger Varian's Rockfel winner Daahyeh, but the gap between the two jurisdictions overall just doesn't look what it used to be, and it's well worth keeping that in mind in all turf races.

One for the dirt

Shamrock Rose became the first three-year-old to win the Filly & Mare Sprint last year and Covfefe has a big wave of support as she looks to follow suit.

Her name stems from a cryptic/confusing/drunk? President Trump message which sent the entire Twittersphere into near-meltdown a couple of years ago, but there's been no "constant negative press" when it comes to this filly.

She's won twice at the highest level and her victory over Serengeti Empress in the Test Stakes at Saratoga reads really well, but the tough five-year-old Come Dancing might just have too much beef for her.

She's also open to further improvement, being so lightly raced for her age, and looks to have fully matured this term, winning four of her five starts.

Her only defeat came behind the weekend's home banker Midnight Bisou in the summer and that clearly hasn’t set her back with subsequent scores at Saratoga and Belmont. Those wins came at seven and six and a half furlongs respectively and it is her proven stamina that will stand her in good stead against the speed-based Covfefe.

The golden statistic

History is not necessarily against McKinzie when it comes to the Classic distance, with six of the past 10 winners of this famous 10-furlong contest having never previously won over the trip.

Gun Runner (Del Mar, 2017), Bayern (Santa Anita, 2014), Mucho Macho Man (Santa Anita, 2013), Fort Larned (Santa Anita, 2012), Blame (Churchill Downs, 2010) and Zenyatta (Santa Anita, 2009).

And it could be significant that four of these recent cases came here at Santa Anita.

In fact, if we take it all the way back and hone in on the Santa Anita-staged Classics alone, you can also throw in Raven’s Pass (2008), Pleasantly Perfect (2003) and Skywalker (1986) as first-time-trip winners.

That leaves shock winner Arcangues (1993) and Arrogate (2016) the only two Breeders’ Cup Classic heroes from nine editions at Santa Anita to have already won at a mile and a quarter coming into the race.

He may be 0-2 at the distance, but McKinzie was only beaten a nose in the Grade One Santa Anita Handicap back in April, which is significantly closer than several Californian Classic winners had got to previous C&D winning form.

So try to ignore the negativity on account of the yardage which seems to be surrounding Baffert's big hope.

Mike Smith – in the plate for the four-year-old’s 13 career starts - losing the ride following defeat in the colt’s Awesome Again prep, however, is arguably greater cause for concern.

Average just won't do

A flash of genuine brilliance is required to win this weekend and if you go into a race hoping a certain someone might suddenly come to life in the face of Breeders’ Cup battle, then expect to end up disappointed.

There is no substitute for having been there and done it on the big stage and while there’s no reason why a consistent, solid performer shouldn't produce the goods again when it comes to Santa Anita, only true champions will emerge on top.

Sizzling early speed and a giant engine are required to succeed on the dirt, with a bright change of gear essential on the baked turf track - the grass course has been riding firm for much of the current meet.

So trawl through those past performances and seek out the spark. You won’t win without it.

The price is right

'Don't tip me a horse, tip me a price.'

Something we should all be demanding, this week above all.

It's so easy to get swept up in the hype in the Breeders’ Cup build-up and, in many ways, that’s what it’s all about.

But if you’re in the business of trying to make a few quid along the way, then don’t lose sight of the most essential punting principal: every horse has a price.

So don’t let the yak get in the way of basic odds appreciation; if it looks too short, then look elsewhere.

Box clever and if you can bet into the local pools where the Europeans tend to trade at ridiculously inflated prices, do so. Likewise, you’ll generally be on the right side of the ledger if taking an early fixed price about a local jolly.

Configure it out

Santa Anita's six and a half-furlong turf sprint track is well known for its downhill opening couple of furlongs, featuring the only right-hand turn in North American racing.

Not so at this year's Breeders’ Cup.

Due to safety concerns at the California Horse Racing Board, the early hillside section of the turf course has been out of bounds for sprints since March 31 following a brutal winter and spring, with all the sprint action for this meet taking place on the oval circuit inside of the main dirt track.

That sees the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint cut right back to five furlongs this time around.

It's business as usual for the longer turf races, the Filly & Mare Turf - which is back just a furlong from last year at Churchill to 1m2f here - and the Turf (1m4f as per usual) both still starting on the hill, the thinking being the slower tempo at the beginning of these longer races will cause less of a concern when runners pass over the dirt crossing.

As for the draw, you can scrap your stats suggesting the outside posts are the place to be in turf sprints, as has been the case in the past but, as is the norm on the dirt, the very lowest stalls (1-2) aren't the most desirable either.

Think Chester - anything but a lightning start from the inside gates makes it extremely tough to gain position into the turn, forcing riders to take back and try to work through the field in the latter stages. They will be maximum fields of 14 for most races this weekend so, roughly speaking, anything 3-9 and you're golden.

DVD one to watch

What with the exploits of Virgil and Anthony already cluttering up essential brain cells, you might not think there's room for a third Van Dyke in your life - hell fire, it's another different spelling too - but let me stop you there.

Drayden Van Dyke is very much a jockey to have on your radar this week.

He's already achieved a great deal in a short space of time, like winning titles at Los Alamitos and Del Mar, an Eclipse Award for Outstanding Apprentice, plus the small matter of $38.5million in career earnings. Some going for a 24-year-old.

He's backed by some of the best around on the west coast and hooks up with plenty for Simon Callaghan, Richard Baltas and, of course, the big daddy in California - Bob Baffert, for whom he rode subsequent Triple Crown hero Justify to win his maiden first time out at Santa Anita on February 18, 2018.

Last year Van Dyke got his first taste of Breeders' Cup glory on Stormy Liberal in the Turf Sprint and he's desperate to add to the tally.

If Mike Smith is a Frankie Dettori figure and Javier Castellano North America's answer to Ryan Moore, then consider Van Dyke along the lines of their Oisin Murphy.

And he could have a very interesting little battle on with Britain's newest champion jockey for the ride on Qatar Racing's Mile hope True Valour, formerly with Johnny Murtagh, now with Callaghan and a winner, in the hands of DVD, over course and distance in a Grade Two earlier in the month.

Elsewhere, look out for Van Dyke on lively outsiders Beau Recall in the Filly & Mare Turf and Giant Expectations in the Dirt Mile.

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