Breeders' Cup tips 2019 - Matt Brocklebank profiles the early contenders for favouritism at Santa Anita

We’re heading deep into Breeders’ Cup prep territory with a little over a month until the two-day festival which returns to Santa Anita for a record 10th time this season.

Some of the greatest thoroughbreds from all over the world will converge in Arcadia, California, on November 1 and 2 to race for north of $30,000,000 dollars in prize money.

We’ll have comprehensive coverage as we build towards the meeting and to get things started Matt Brocklebank, who is heading to California to cover the event for us, introduces you to the candidates who currently head the antepost markets.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

Kimari (11/2) – Wesley Ward

Just three starts to her name but Kimari is a familiar figure already on both sides of the pond, with the daughter of Munnings well touted for Royal Ascot following a blistering, 15-length debut win on on the Keeneland dirt back in April.

She put up a very brave show in the Queen Mary Stakes when going down just a head on rain-soaked going to Raffle Prize, who has since won at at Newmarket and finished a close second to Earthlight in the Prix Morny.

Kimari was a 2/9 shot back on home turf (Firm) in the Listed Bolton Landing Stakes in mid-August and didn’t disappoint with a four-length defeat of Abscond, who went on to beat Walk In Marrakesh a nose in the Group One Natalma Stakes at Woodbine.

This is clearly one very fast filly.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Daahyeh (6/1) – Roger Varian

Chad Brown has bossed this contest since its inception in 2008, winning five times including the last three editions.

He’s got a couple of once-raced fillies lurking on the periphery but for the time being it’s the three Euros – namely Daahyeh, Love and Living In The Past – who dominate the antepost book.

Daahyeh just about edges favouritism at this stage, primarily due to the fact Roger Varian nominated this event as her likely target following a creditable second to Love in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh over Irish Champions Weekend.

That could all change if Aidan O’Brien confirms Love an intended starter, but Daahyeh does have some very strong sprint form in the book already and the move up to seven furlongs didn’t hurt her progression at the Curragh.

Genuinely fast ground, almost guaranteed in California at this time of year, might be a slight negative for the daughter of Bated Breath.

Juvenile

Dennis’ Moment (5/1) – Dale Romans

Dennis’ Moment has made great strides since unseating his rider Robby Albarado on debut at Churchill Downs in June. He clipped heels there in a nasty incident that saw the jockey ruled out with a broken wrist.

There was no such trouble for the son of Tiznow on his second start when romping away with an Ellis Park maiden, after which his trainer Dale Romans was already drawing comparisons with the yard’s 2016 BC Juvenile runner-up Not This Time.

Dennis’ Moment took in the same prep race as Not This Time – the Grade Three Iroquois Stakes – and the result was the same too, a convincing victory.

He’s a fascinating shipper from Louisville but will no doubt face some fearsome local hopes including Bob Baffert’s Eight Rings, who himself has to recover from unseating his rider when last seen on September 3. No doubt that one will be running again before the big day, with Saturday's American Pharoah Stakes a distinct possibility.

Juvenile Fillies

Bast (4/1) – Bob Baffert

On the subject of Baffert, it’s 12 years since his most recent winner of the Juvenile Fillies with Indian Blessing, but he holds a couple of aces heading into this year’s edition of the main Future Stars Friday event for the females.

Immediate Impact made a big impression at a small price when winning her maiden special weight at Del Mar at the back end of July, but there is more flesh on the bones of Bast’s Santa Anita credentials.

She’s a daughter of 2010 Juvenile hero Uncle Mo and evidently improved for the move up from five and a half furlongs and fitting of blinkers when steaming to victory in the Del Mar Debutant.

That triumph came over seven furlongs where she promised to handle a mile comfortably, so there’s loads to look forward to ahead of her crack at Friday's Chandelier Stakes over a mile and half a furlongs.

All being well there and in her subsequent work, she’s the kind of filly you’ll see shorten up significantly in the betting over the coming weeks.

Juvenile Turf

Arizona (8/1) – Aidan O’Brien

It has paid to focus on the Europeans in this event – from the 12 runnings only three have gone to American trainers.

No man has bettered Aidan O’Brien’s four victories and he’ll no doubt be strongly represented once again (subsequent Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck was his sole runner last year).

There are any number of potential candidates from Ballydoyle but Arizona makes a good deal of sense having been campaigned at a very high level and won the Group Two Coventry Stakes.

He’s perhaps not quite been in the same form in two starts since then but it would be quite typical of O’Brien to ease off ever so slightly with a horse like him, especially if Santa Anita in early-November has been on the agenda for a while.

There’s every chance it has been for the son of No Nay Never, a horse cruelly denied when second to Bobby’s Kitten in the 2014 Turf Sprint at the same course.

Sprint

Imperial Hint (4/1) – Luis Carvajal

Here’s one to be slightly wary of, only for the reason we’ve been here before with the pocket rocket that is Imperial Hint.

He was favourite from a long way out heading into last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, only to perform slightly below par in a five-length third.

Perhaps he didn’t enjoy the surface at Churchill – he was beaten out of sight on his only previous visit to that track, albeit a long time ago - and in fairness he looks to be peaking at the right time of year this time around.

After quiet runs in February and March, he defied a layoff to win a Grade One handicap in good style at Saratoga at the end of July and it’ll be interesting to see if he turns up for the Vosburgh this weekend, a race he won so impressively last September en route to the Sprint.

The three-year-old improver Shancelot and Roy H, who is seeking a Breeders’ Cup Sprint treble, are his main market rivals at the time of writing.

Turf Sprint

Battaash (2/1) – Charlie Hills

A fascinating prospect. The superstar Battaash – a tricky traveller in the past – jetting over the Atlantic and seeking to avenge Dayjur’s heartbreaking 1990 Breeders’ Cup Sprint defeat in the same silks of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum.

It was that horse’s long-standing Nunthorpe track record that Battaash was lowering when storming home at York last month, and we’ll reportedly see him again in the Prix de l’Abbaye over Arc weekend before America.

He’s disappointed in the past and he’s had some odd excuses along the way (stung by a wasp/dog barked at him) but that’s part of the appeal with this sensational sprinter, who looks in a good place mentally this season.

Granted a decent draw and a fair tailwind, it would be fantastic to see the real Batt-mobile showcase his talents on the first weekend in November.

If that’s the case, big local hope World Of Trouble could look quite aptly named.

Filly & Mare Turf

Sistercharlie (5/2) – Chad Brown

Chad Brown prides himself on his exploits with fillies and mares – much like his mentor Bobby Frankel – and Sistercharlie has been a serious flag-bearer over the past couple of years.

In fairness to previous connections, she’s always been highly talented and finished second in the 2017 running of the Prix de Diane (French Oaks), after which she’s been almost unstoppable for team Brown.

Her only defeat came when narrowly denied by Fourstar Crook at Belmont last June and she’s shown herself to be the better filly since, while she has really kicked on this time around having capped a fine 2018 with crowning glory at Churchill Downs.

It will be interesting to see how Brown juggles his principal turf horses at this year’s Breeders’ Cup this year, but it seems unlikely Sistercharlie will be rerouted to the Turf.

And one element seemingly in her favour this year is the Filly & Mare Turf being back at a mile and a quarter, rather than the mile and three furlongs at last year’s Breeders’ Cup.

All things considered she looks a good price currently.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Covfefe (7/2) – Brad Cox

Here’s an in-and-out performer but one who has really made an impression on her going days.

Brad Cox’s lightly-raced three-year-old has carried a bit of a reputation since her nine-length debut win last September but only broke through at the highest level in early-August when taking the Test Stakes at Saratoga.

She backed up for the first time in her short career when a very impressive winner of the Dogwood Stakes over the weekend and it’s all systems go for her end of season target, according to Cox.

Mile

Circus Maximus (5/1) – Aidan O’Brien

Goldikova’s three wins in a row gave Europe a real stranglehold on the Breeders’ Cup Mile but it’s worth noting last season Expert Eye was breaking a run of seven US-trained winners following Freddy Head’s fabulous mare’s third success in 2010.

It’s a race in which Aidan O’Brien is yet to taste victory, but he’s been trying hard in recent years, saddling the second Lancaster Bomber in 2017 and four runners in total last year.

I Can Fly could be one from Churchill Downs who has another crack at the race, while Hermosa and Magna Grecia also feature in the antepost lists, but it’s Circus Maximus who heads the betting.

You’d have got a stupidly large price on him here immediately after finishing sixth in the Investec Derby in June, but he’s been turned inside out since dropping back in distance with blinkers on.

He won the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and got back in the groove with a hard-fought victory over Romanised in the Prix du Moulin, again appreciating the drop back having failed to figure in the Juddmonte International at York.

His best form has come with cut in the ground, something he’s unlikely to get on the west coast, but a forcing ride around a tight bend looks to play to his strengths and his overall body of form stacks up very well compared to some of O’Brien’s previous Mile hopes.

Distaff

Midnight Bisou (3/1) – Steve Asmussen

There were concerns that a tilt at the Distaff might just come too soon for a three-year-old Midnight Bisou last November, and so it proved.

She'd had a bit of a ding-dong with Monomoy Girl throughout the year, beating her in the Cotillion after chasing her home in the American Oaks, but couldn’t match Brad Cox’s filly on the day that mattered most.

But she’s returned a meaner and leaner model in 2019, racking up six straight wins and arguably never better than when nosing out the wonderful mare Elate in the Grade One Personal Ensign.

She’s bound for the Beldame Stakes at Belmont at the weekend as the finishing touches are put to her Breeders’ Cup preparations, and she’s likely to be a very short price bidding to remain undefeated for the year.

As short as 9/4 in places already for the Distaff already, you sense the standout 4/1 about Asmussen’s latest stable star won’t be around very long.

Turf

Magical (5/1) – Aidan O'Brien

Magical may not be a Ballydoyle superstar but she’s about as close as you’re going to get without being quite in the same bracket as some of the greats to have come out of the yard in recent years.

She can’t beat Enable, the form book keeps on reminding us of that, and it may persuade Aidan O’Brien to skip the Arc de Triomphe and try and do the Champions Day-Breeders’ Cup Turf double instead.

It’s a feat she came close to achieving last term when a resounding winner of the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot and a close second to you-know-who at Churchill Downs.

She’s plotted a very similar route to Found in her four-year-old career which included Arc glory and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Magical turn out twice before her attentions are pointed towards America.

Her consistency has been a real asset this year and her versatility also leaves the door open to a potential crack at Sistercharlie in the Filly & Mare instead if O’Brien opts for Japan and Anthony Van Dyck in the Turf, but Magical is the best older horse in the yard right now and obviously deserves to be in the very best races.

Dirt Mile

Catalina Cruiser (5/1) – John Sadler

Whatever could go wrong in last year’s Dirt Mile, did go wrong for the 11/8 favourite Catalina Cruiser.

He went badly out to the right as the stalls opened which lit him up on the wide outside without any cover. It was curtains from there.

But that remains the only defeat of his seven-race career and it’s good to see last year’s Classic-winning trainer John Sadler has his star miler back on track this year.

He’s prepped in the same races too, winning the San Diego Handicap and the Grade Two Pat O’Brien Stakes – both of which he took in en route last term.

Shipping to Churchill may have taken him out of his comfort zone last November so staying much closer to home should suit ideally while the five-year-old remains very lightly raced and potentially still open to a little improvement.

The Asmussen-trained Mitole and progressive three-year-old Mucho Gusto look the main dangers if the latter cuts back in trip for this, with McKinzie and Improbable more likely to be taking in the Classic over two furlongs further.

Classic

McKinzie – Bob Baffert

Two career attempts over 10 furlongs furlongs, two defeats.

It’s not right to boil McKinzie down to such a trivial line, but it really is the crux of the matter when weighing up whether you’re in or out of this horse's camp heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He gets nine furlongs well enough – the Street Sense colt has won twice at that trip, both Grade Ones – while he was only beaten a nose over this year’s Classic course and distance when second in the Santa Anita Handicap back in April.

He settled, he travelled, he loomed up and looked game enough in the finish, but he just couldn’t get by Gift Box on that latter occasion and it’s a performance that sticks in the mind.

As does a near five-length demotion job in the seven-furlong Malibu Stakes last December, arguably his career best performance, visually as well as on the clock.

With Santa Anita form figures of 112122, the Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie was practically made to win this race, on this course, and yet there's no question you simply have to stay every inch of the trip to be taking the Classic crown.

He's engaged to run again this Saturday in the nine-furlong Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita.

Is his Classic price likely to shorten further in the build-up? Probably.

Will the doubts remain? Most definitely.

Posted at 1600 BST on 25/09/19

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