Breeders' Cup Future Stars Friday pedigree analysis: First-crop sires
Pedigree expert Laura Joy takes a deep dive into some of the representatives of first-crop sires in action at the Breeders' Cup on Friday.
As the season draws to a close, it is crunch time for our freshman sires.
But it ain’t over 'til it’s over and there is still one major global weekend left to play. The Breeders’ Cup is the pinnacle of the North American racing scene and ever since Pebbles brought home the Turf for Clive Brittain and Pat Eddery in 1985, Europeans have been crossing the Atlantic Ocean armed with our most accomplished cavalry attempting to repeat the feat.
The magnitude of the weekend is not lost on any racing fan around the globe with some of the biggest and best stud farms withholding stud fees until the curtain has fallen on the pinnacle of the American racing calendar.
With a handful of arrows left to fire, let’s look at which contenders could elevate their rookie sires to stardom.
Love Reigns (US Navy Flag) – Juvenile Turf Sprint
US Navy Flag (War Front) has begun his stallion career respectfully with 9 winners and 2 stakes winners from 73 foals of racing age, but a winner on the global stage would certainly not go amiss.
The son of War Front who pulled off a rare Middle Park – Dewhurst double as a juvenile meant that hopes were high that his first two year olds would hit the ground running.
This filly was electric when winning her debut by over nine lengths and after a respectable fourth in the Queen Mary behind Dramatised (who she faces again), got back on track with a no nonsense Listed win at Saratoga. Her pedigree on both sides suggests she is far from just a sharp early two year old and is entitled to improve.
Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) & Verifying (Justify) – Juvenile
Three Graded stakes winners and 16 individual winners marks a rapid start to Good Magic’s (Curlin) stallion career, himself a former winner of this race in 2017 following a runner-up effort in the G1 Champagne Stakes.
Blazing Sevens arrives here with even stronger form having won the same G1 accounting for the reopposing Verifying (Justify). 22 winners to date and 4 stakes winners puts Triple Crown winner Justify ahead of Good Magic to date.
Justify was unraced at 2 so it’s speculative to say, but given his achievements as a three year old it’s reasonable to assume he progressed physically from two to three, away from the public eye. Good Magic fell victim to Justify in the first two of his Triple Crown jewels, but the market suggests he holds the upper hand here.
The pair lie as good as neck and neck in the leading first crop sire table and the outcome of this battle could have a significant impact on their positions.
Blazing Sevens is favoured, but Verifying should not be dismissed, the room to improve from his first stakes experience could be enough to reverse the form.
Chop Chop (City Of Light) – Juvenile Fillies
Just a nose denied Chop Chop from giving City Of Light (Quality Road) a first crop Grade 1 winning juvenile.
Leading North American sire Into Mischief’s daughter Wonder Wheel was the arguably fortunate winner in the G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes over course and distance when denying City Of Light a monumental result.
From 30 starters, he has 8 winners with 3 of those winning stakes. None have scored in graded stakes yet which could concern considering this is the sire whose opening fee of $35,000 rose to $40,000 before his first crop reached the track.
His first yearlings sold for an average nearly ten times their fee at $337,698 with one colt bringing $1,700,000 (ex Anchorage) at Keeneland September. Graded stakes placed Chop Chop was a $230,000 yearling and his leading lady, but don’t hit the panic button yet.
City Of Light was unraced at two and his sire Quality Road made his sole juvenile start in November. Whilst a lack of a graded star to date might appear an underperformance at first glance, City Of Light is on the bridle travelling into the straight with a live chance to step up into the big league.
Atomically (Girvin) – Juvenile Fillies
The vast expanse of America means the best of the racing and breeding congregates in select areas. High class racing spans the country, but it is Lexington, Kentucky where the best colts start of their stallion careers.
Chances are awarded to those with less obvious stud credentials away from the Bluegrass State in places like Florida and California where the pool of mares available generally operate at a lower level. Inevitably those whose achievement outstrips opportunity find themselves relocating to Kentucky as soon as their apparent talent is revealed. Girvin is no exception.
The Grade 1 winning son of Tale Of Ekati hit the ground running with 15 first crop winners and 4 stakes winners with G2 winner Damon’s Mound leading the charge. Atomically arrives here on an upward curve though her form is difficult to assess.
She won a Listed level stakes restricted to fillies by Florida registered sires, but she couldn’t have done it in better style. Girvin is already on his way to Airdrie Stud in Kentucky for the 2023 season, so a win here would enhance his profile for his debut season amongst the elite.
From a $7,500 fee he has exceeded all expectation and Atomically could maintain his rapid ascension.
Delight (Mendelssohn) – Juvenile Fillies Turf
Mendelssohn is by Scat Daddy and out of Broodmare of the year Leslie’s Lady, responsible for Champion Sire Into Mischief as well as multiple Eclipse award winner Beholder.
He is a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner himself and was a $3,000,000 yearling so it’s fair to say hopes were high. 18 winners to date from 69 starters is a healthy strike rate and Delight is the shining star having already scored in the G2 Jessamine Stakes.
A win here to emulate her sire would be a welcome one but it won’t come free of charge. Chief market rival Meditate is by No Nay Never, another son of Scat Daddy and fellow resident of the Coolmore stallion ranks. Faith has remained strong in Mendelssohn’s progeny.
Despite having no superstar as the yearling sale season began, his progeny have continued to sell well. With various impressive maiden winners, the unwavering belief in his pedigree and profile should be vindicated before long, perhaps as soon as Friday.
Victoria Road (Saxon Warrior) – Juvenile Turf
Classic winner and G1 winning juvenile Saxon Warrior is one of the most exciting stallion recruits in recent times to the European ranks.
An exceptionally talented son of the late Japanese Champion Deep Impact out of a Champion Two Year Old by Europe’s late perennial Champion sire Galileo, how could it go wrong?
Early signs suggest it’s going very right and 20 winners from 55 starters backs that up. Last Sunday Moon Ray became his third stakes winner in the G3 Prix Miesque. With over half of Saxon Warrior’s first crop yet to reach the track, a win here would take his achievements to date to the next level.
Having covered nearly 200 mares this year there will be celebrations across Ireland and the UK if Victoria Road can get the job done.
I’m Very Busy (Cloud Computing) - Juvenile Turf
With eight winners to his name to date, surprise Preakness Stakes winner Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music) is on the hunt for his first stakes winner.
Unraced at two, he had only won a maiden and placed in stakes when taking the second jewel of the American Triple Crown at Pimlico so it’s an achievement to have a representative from his first two year olds. His sire Maclean’s Music famously retired due to surgical complications after his only start but earned a chance at stud having recorded the highest debut Beyer (US speed figure) in history of 114.
Cloud Computing was from his sire’s first crop, and from only one crop of juveniles he has produced this colt. Stepping into Grade 2 company after an easy Saratoga maiden success, I’m Very Busy found reopposing Major Dude one length too strong.
However, he is entitled to step forward markedly for that effort and progression should not be ruled out.
Major Dude (Bolt d’Oro) – Juvenile Turf
Major Dude has four runs under his belt so certainly won’t lack experience. Coming here off the back of a career highlight in the G2 Pilgrim Stakes, he is one of four stakes winners to date for Bolt d’Oro from 64 runners, 20 of which are winners.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner was unusually precocious for a son of Medaglia d’Oro whose progeny tend to progress but has proven that was no fluke as he maintains a narrow lead in the first season sire race.
Major Dude faces tough competition in arguably the most open of the juvenile highlights and Bolt d’Oro faces much of the same to remain at the top of the first crop sire list. Justify is snapping at his heels with Good Magic a short head behind him.
The prize money on offer has the capacity to drastically change the top of the leaderboard and with each of the top players represented, we’re in for a show.
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