Breaking It Down: Murt Khan’s horse racing tip for Monday

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1.5pts win Lerichi Belle in 9.10 Southwell at 11/4

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Sweet Holly has showed up well in her last two starts but has been floating around the same handicap mark for a while.  She should run her race again but I'm not entirely convinced she wants this step up in trip.

Sureness is talented on her day but hasn't convinced over hurdles recently. She has the ability to go very well off today's mark but it's a bit of a guessing game whether she'll be on a going day.

I quite like the look of favourite LERICHI BELLE.  This is her first run in a handicap and has shown ability on her last two starts.  

Two starts back she finished a close second to I'll Be Your Clown, who has won since.  Last time up she split Burst Ya Bubble and Otter Moon and they finished 16 lengths clear of the rest of the field.  

She can be quite keen and takes a step up half a mile in trip today so the combination of factors is a slight worry.  However, if the race is run at a reasonable tempo I think she should be OK on a sharp track like Southwell.

I think she will take the beating today and 11/4 is fair.

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Breaking It Down P&L:

June so far: -5.1pts
May: +30pts 

Posted at 0025 BST on 26/06/17.