Recommended bets: Breaking It Down
0.5pt e.w. Exit To Freedom in 2.45 Market Rasen at 25/1
1pt win Jovial Joey in 3.55 Market Rasen at 4/1
1pt e.w. Harry Angel in 3.40 Ascot at 7/2
2.45 Market Rasen preview
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Turkey Creek is a lightly raced horse who must have had a lot of complications in his career having raced only seven times in the space of four years.
He didn't disgrace himself last time after a six-month break over course and distance and if he can build on that he has every chance today. However, I cannot encourage a bet on him at 3/1 with his profile, though the market could guide us more towards his chances closer to the off.
Racing Spirit is a consistent horse in this grade and if this becomes a real stamina test he should go close. He remains a maiden after 14 starts but I can't put anyone off having a nibble on him each-way.
Rock N' Stones forced quite a hard pace last time and ran with credit in defeat. It's interesting how they ride him today, he may be ridden with a little more patience and for me will take the beating.
Overtoujay is an enthusiastic type and has run well on both occasions. He's another one that is likely to run his race. A horse who ran against Overtoujay at Market Rasen is EXIT TO FREEDOM. He was only beaten three quarters of lengths that day by Charlie Pogson's seven year old and is 1lb better off today.
Overtoujay is around 9/2, with Exit To Freedom 25/1, and there is also a chance the 11 year old will get an easy time up front on a track he enjoys.
He's a one-time winner from 41 starts and isn't getting any younger, but at the price he should give backers a run for their money and could get into a place or better off a lowly mark of 74.
3.55 Market Rasen preview
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This is a competitive handicap chase and conditions looks suitable for Viens Character, however there could be a lot of pace in the race and I like the chances of the carefully campaigned JOVIAL JOEY. I think trip, ground and track are right for him and I can see him enjoying a decent pace and improving once again.
3.40 Ascot preview
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Not much in it between the first three in the market but I feel HARRY ANGEL ran with so much credit when getting beat by Blue Point on seasonal debut having run so fresh and keen. I'm confident he will reverse the form with him and has every chance of being serious competition to the hot favourite Carvaggio. 10/3 at quarter the odds first three with one firm looks a reasonably safe play with a decent upside.
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Breaking It Down P&L:
June so far: -1.30pts
May: +30pts
Posted at 0845 BST on 23/06/17.
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