Recommended bets: Breaking It Down
1pt e.w. Lightning Spear in 2.30 Ascot at 6/1 - has his conditions and should go close against short-priced favourite
1pt win Ivor's Queen in 4.05 Stratford at 14/1 - now might be the time to catch talented horse
1pt win Beyond Conceit in 5.00 Ascot at 15/2 - goes well at Ascot and looks well-treated with more to come
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Many punters will be looking to get their Royal Ascot off to a flyer backing Ribchester at a short price in the Queen Anne Stakes. He is the one to beat but, at no bigger than evens, is there to be taken on.
Last time in the Lockinge he had the complete run of things out in front on soft ground with residual fitness on his side having run at Meydan six weeks prior.
He will be racing on fast ground today and it is more than likely he will be taken on for the lead by the likes of Deauville and Dutch Uncle. Both these factors may prove to be completely irrelevant come shortly after 2.30pm but they are enough to cast doubts as to whether he's the banker the market says he is.
Ribchester has got the better of LIGHTNING SPEAR on every occasion they've met, including at Newbury last time, but there's scope for a turnaround today.
The interesting run was in the Queen Elizabeth II last year, where the first two - Minding and Ribchester - both raced on the far side whilst Lightning Spear was held up on the near side and lost a bit of ground when Oisin Murphy made a move up the centre of the course trying to run the two down.
He also was shouldering 3lb more than Ribchester that day having given weight to the then three-year-old whereas they now race off levels.
I've already mentioned how the race was run in the Lockinge, but it was also Lighning Spear's first start of the season so he's entitled to come on for the outing.
Today's faster conditions may be more suitable too and if a fast pace materialises there is a chance this could fall into the lap of the selection under a patient Jamie Spencer ride.
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IVOR'S QUEEN has always struck me with a horse with lots of ability.
She has been keen in her races and has finished weakly suggesting she may struggle with her wind or be prone to bleed.
However, a six-month lay-off may have helped and with conditions to suit she is worth a speculative play at 14/1 today.
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BEYOND CONCEIT has shown that he retains all his ability since going hurdling for Nicky Henderson.
He hasn't been fully exposed on the level and should relish the 2m4f trip on a track he has enjoyed success at over the winter.
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Breaking It Down P&L:
June +1.6pts
May +30pts
Posted at 0805 BST on 20/06/17.
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