Breaking It Down: Murt Khan's horse racing tip for Thursday October 19

16:51 · THU October 19, 2017

Murt Khan's focus falls on Carlisle as the National Hunt expert and professional punter looks for more profits on Thursday.

4.50 Carlisle preview

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This race should be run at a real lick and out of those who like to make the running I quite like Elusive Theatre. I was taken with her aggressive technique at speed on her debut over chases at Cartmel. She then got in close to a fence next time and paid the penalty. I think she will give punters an exciting run for their money.

There are quite a few unexposed types that could be well handicapped over fences but it’s a bit of a guessing game. A safer bet for me is sticking with a horse in form, is fit and is still handicapped to win - BEAU BAY has shown real consistency since going chasing.

Last time he ran a cracker pulling very hard early on and running all the way to the line on a stiff track over 2m 4f on soft ground. I mentioned last time he may have been a horse who wants a flat track, but I was proven wrong.

The faster they go today the better and his experience over fences could prove vital. He could easily run into one or two that take to the chasing game but feel these conditions will bring out the best in him and he represents solid each-way value at 5/1.

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