Breaking It Down: Murt Khan's horse racing tip for Thursday

3.15 Exeter preview

The Great Point Media Handicap Hurdle is very competitive on paper and there's not much between the top few horses in the market.

A horse that pings out and looks overpriced is JARLATH. He comes off a 341-day lay-off and latterly in his career has been campaigned over fences.

To his credit he was on a really consistent run of form during the latter part of 2016 and you have to look a long way down his form to see when he last under-performed.

He makes his comeback run over hurdles here and is rated lower in this sphere in comparison to his chase mark. Strictly from a handicapping perspective he is more than capable of being competitive in this contest and with him only being a six-year-old there is every chance his best is yet to come.

It's more than likely he has suffered some kind of niggle or injury to be off for so long, and there's a chance this is a pipe-opener before he goes back chasing.

However, on paper he is no 50/1 shot and on that reason alone he's worth a nibble.

Recommended bet

0.5pt win Jarlath in 3.15 Exeter at 50/1

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Breaking It Down P&L: +36.60pts

• October: -3.00pts
• September: +1.75pts
• August: +0.36pts
• July: +15.09pts
• June: -10.10pts
• May: +30pts

Posted at 0725 BST on 12/10/17.