Plenty up for discussion this week as Ben Linfoot goes through the BHA's official ratings amendments including Bravemansgame, Cloth Cap, Cap Du Nord and... Captain Chaos.
Will Nicholls go the Brave route?
Bravemansgame ⬆ 12lb to 143
Paul Nicholls has a glittering C.V, but it’s amazing to think he’s never won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle or the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.
With all those beastly staying chasers he’s had through his hands over the years you’d have thought one of them might’ve picked up a Grade One Festival novice hurdle along the way, but even the mighty Denman suffered defeat for the first time in the-then Royal & Sun Alliance Novices’ Hurdle over 2m5f back in 2006.
That second was the closest Nicholls has got to winning either the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett, with Rock On Ruby also runner-up in the 2m5f race, while Pride Of Dulcote and Najaf were both second in the 3m contest in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
It’s not just the fierce competition of the Festival as to why Nicholls has hit a blank in these races. There are other factors, too, like Aintree. For instance, the Ditcheat maestro has won the Grade One Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, over 2m4f at Liverpool, four times.
So there is plenty to factor in when weighing up BRAVEMANSGAME’s prospects for the season ahead. Nicholls is already talking about fences for his next campaign, which slightly tempers enthusiasm for a Cheltenham bet, as it does sound like his novice hurdling season is merely a stepping stone.
But it’s hard not to get excited about this horse. He was so professional at Newbury over the extended 2m4f on Friday. He settled beautifully, travelled strongly and hurdled fluently, like an old hand. He cruised to victory in second gear, quickening clear with the merest of tickles from Harry Cobden and it’s really no surprise he’s attained a rating of 143 after just three runs over timber.
It sounds like the Challow is next, where his Grade One aspirations will be put on the line. Nicholls last won that race with Denman, when it was run at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day after Newbury fell foul of the weather, and, if Bravemansgame is to be denied back in Berkshire in late December, extreme elements looks one of the more likely reasons.
Let’s say the weather plays ball and he wins the Challow. His Festival prospects will sharpen into focus then. He’s 25/1 for the Ballymore and 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett, prices that could look huge in less than a month’s time.
Nicholls said on Saturday that “he’d get further in time, but we probably wouldn’t want to do that this season,” which perhaps brings the Ballymore into play, although such feelings can change and two previous winners of Saturday’s Newbury race, Champers On Ice and Santini, went onto be placed in the Albert Bartlett.
He could go either, or neither. But even though it’s a possibility that Nicholls might want to skip the Festival with him altogether, those Cheltenham odds look big for a Grade One winner in waiting. Perhaps this is the horse to break Nicholls’ duck in the longer top-level novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
Cloth has tempting mark for National
Cloth Cap ⬆ 11lb to 147
Big hikes in the handicap for winning the Ladbrokes Trophy are not unusual, for obvious reasons.
It’s arguably the best handicap chase of the season, certainly if you take the Grand National out of the equation, and if you win this like a good thing you’re going to pay the penalty.
Indeed, in the last decade alone, we’ve seen six horses punished with a double-figure poundage increment for their Newbury successes with Smad Place (+13lb) and Sizing Tennessee (+16lb) receiving the biggest whacks.
Bobs Worth and Triolo D’Alene both went up 11lb for their wins, while Many Clouds went up 10lb and was 9lb higher when completing his famous Hennessy-National same-season double at Aintree in 2015.
Of course, like Many Clouds, Saturday’s Ladbrokes Trophy winner CLOTH CAP is also owned by Trevor Hemmings. The Grand National is a special race to him and having won it three times you’d get short odds about Cloth Cap being targeted at the big one in April so he can go for a fourth.
Jonjo O’Neill will likely be working backwards from that race now and I wonder if he’ll keep Cloth Cap’s powder dry until the Nash weights are out in February?
An 11lb rise to 147 looks ever-so slightly on the lenient side for a horse that has just bolted up in the Ladbrokes Trophy by 10 lengths without touching a twig, with the cheekpieces and aggressive tactics working a treat on the good ground.
That way of going about things can be replicated again and such business looks ideal for Aintree, while a mark of 147 also looks perfect for the National as you’d think that’ll comfortably get him in towards the bottom of the weights.
O’Neill ran his previous National winner, Don’t Push It, in the Pertemps Final at the Festival before his Aintree win, and while that looks unlikely at the moment given Cloth Cap’s hurdles rating of 122, it will be fascinating to see Jonjo’s route to Liverpool with this horse.
I certainly wouldn’t want to risk increasing that 147 mark before the great National weights unveiling in mid-February, so maybe an old-school Pertemps qualifier path wouldn’t be the worst idea given it worked for O’Neill’s Don’t Push It and Pineau De Re, as well.
A tale of two Caps
Cap Du Nord ⬆ 10lb to 133
Captain Chaos ⬇ 4lb to 136
“You don’t see many horses win a good Saturday handicap like that, do you?”
Trainer Christian Williams is referring to his CAP DU NORD’s impressive four-and-a-quarter length success in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury and he’s right, you don’t.
Stone last at the eighth fence, Cap Du Nord had fiddled over a few under Jack Tudor, but he really got into his groove as the screw turned with five to jump and he scythed through the field to take it up going strongly with two to go.
Hands and heels riding was all that was required to get him home and the strong gallop really suited him over this extended 2m6f.
So what is he?
“I think he’s a staying chaser,” Williams says. “He jumps economically, we do quite well with staying chasers and I think he’s another one. I hope he’ll turn into a Scottish National horse, but I’m thinking Kempton on December 27 for the 0-145 handicap over three miles [won last year by Just A Sting].
“After that the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster could be on his agenda. It’s a good prize, we think the track will suit the horse and I won the race as a jockey with Big Fella Thanks, so it would be nice to win it as a trainer as well.”
The Sky Bet Chase looks the perfect target for him given the similarities between Newbury and Doncaster, and if he gets a strong gallop on ground that isn’t bottomless then all the better. The Sky Bet Chase offers a better chance than most assignments of him getting such a scenario.
Of course, there is a chance the handicapper might have him now. 10lb looks steep enough following a race that worked out perfectly for him, but, given how dominating he was, it’s a perfectly understandable rise.
He’s in good hands, though, and it will be interesting to see how he copes with his new mark at Kempton over Christmas, with a view to his possible assignments in the second half of the season.
CAPTAIN CHAOS WATCH: The latest instalment of Dan Skelton v handicapper (the Captain Chaos years) came in this race as well and our headgear-less hero played an absolute blinder.
He at least finished his race this time and he even beat a rival home after showing more than he had done on his first two starts of the season, but he was ultimately still beaten over 26 lengths after weakening in the last half mile over this inadequate trip.
The handicapper dropped him 4lb to 136, so he’s now down 6lb in three headgear-less runs this season. Now only 2lb higher than when he bolted up at Doncaster in February, he’s weighted to do some damage again when he steps up in trip with the blinkers back on.
The Classic Chase at Warwick, a race in which he was second in January off a mark of 134, could well be his target. We shall see when the blinkers reappear.
Was the handicapper right to drop him to in and around his last winning mark? Has Skelton got him handicapped again even quicker than in his wildest dreams? Or is the Double C just a regressive monkey? There is only one way to find out. I absolutely love this project.
Is Caribean Boy the next Bristol?
Caribean Boy ⬆ 10lb to 154
Finally, a word on CARIBEAN BOY who was really impressive in the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices’ Chase at Newbury on Friday.
He was taking advantage of the final days of his novice status, his February win meaning he had until the end of November if he wanted to run again in such company, and he jumped brilliantly on his way to a four-length verdict over Fiddlerontheroof.
I guess you do have to approach the result with caution; it was a three-runner race and Getaway Trump, a tricky customer on the best of days, either wasn’t in the mood or wasn’t good enough to go with them.
But Fiddlerontheroof is a good horse, worthy of his 152-rating for mine, and although he’d prefer softer conditions he ran well and you would probably make the same comment regarding the ground about the winner.
The time was six seconds quicker than the ensuing handicap chase on the card run over the same distance, very much a positive even if Clondaw Castle was carrying 7lb more than Caribean Boy, and it’s significant Nicky Henderson mentioned the Ryanair afterwards for one so inexperienced (this was just his third chasing start).
Owners Simon Munir & Isaac Souede may not need an heir apparent for Bristol De Mai just yet, judging by his Betfair Chase heroics last month, but in Caribean Boy they might well have one and not just because he’s a grey.
The way he jumps and gallops over 2m4f bodes well for the future, and though he’s only six and he may not go beyond that sort of trip this season, he looks to have all the attributes to succeed over three miles in time.
This Week's BHA Major Amendments (December 1)
Aye Right ⬆ 1lb to 151
Bravemansgame ⬆ 12lb to 143
Cap Du Nord ⬆ 10lb to 133
Captain Chaos ⬇ 4lb to 136
Caribean Boy ⬆ 10lb to 154
Clondaw Castle ⬆ 4lb to 155
Cloth Cap ⬆ 11lb to 147
Elusive Belle ⬆ 8lb to 143
Flash The Steel ⬆ 5lb to 146
Floressa ⬆ 3lb to 144
Lil Rockerfeller ⬆ 4lb to 149
Paisley Park ⬇ 2lb to 165
Thyme Hill ⬆ 9lb to 160
Yorkhill ⬆ 5lb to 147
Zanza ⬆ 7lb to 145
Previous Weights & Measures
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