BoyleSports Becher Chase tips and stats: Ten-year trends ahead of Aintree contest

BoyleSports Becher Chase: Ten-year trends

• National course experience: 6/10
• Won or placed over 3m1f+: 8/10
• Minimum of 12 chase starts: 7/10
• Aged 8 or older: 9/10
• Official Rating between 132-142: 9/10

Conditions to come right for big-priced Bridge?

While effectively supposed to act as a trial for the big one back at the same venue - over the same obstacles - in April, only two Boylesports Becher Chase winners have ever gone on to land the Grand National in the same season, and you’re going back 20 years for the most recent of those (Silver Birch), so it’s very much a race best viewed in isolation these days.

The modern Grand National course doesn’t present anything like the same jumping test as it once did and that train of thought appears to be reflected in the Becher Chase too; whereas experience over the famous fences was once something of a prerequisite, it's worth noting that none of the past three Becher winners ticked that particular box going into the early-December feature.

The distance is still the thick end of three and a quarter miles (3m1f188y to be more precise) so no real shock that proven stamina remains paramount when looking for a suitable Becher contender, although Snow Leopardess and Ashtown Lad winning it with just seven and five chase starts to their names prior to the 2021 and 2022 editions respectively does seem to back up the idea that the more lightly-raced - and less grizzled - handicappers on the way up the chasing ladder are being rewarded more than used to be the case.

Age is an interesting factor as since the aforementioned Silver Birch in 2004, only one horse under the age of seven has won and that’s the 2016 hero Vieux Lion Rouge, who proved himself to be one of the more recent Aintree course specialists as he went on to win the Becher as an 11-year-old too.

Vieux Lion Rouge was trained by David Pipe and, interestingly, he’s now bidding to win the big race with a six-year-old in King Turgeon, who is among those heading the antepost betting.

An impressive winner of the Grand Sefton over the National fences in early-November, he’d previously won at Chepstow over three miles and two furlongs on his seasonal reappearance so obviously doesn’t want for stamina.

He was jumping fences as a four-year-old in France before joining up with Pipe and has had 15 runs over the larger obstacles all told, but six-year-olds are 0-4 in the Becher over the past decade (Gesskille was runner-up two years ago) and this horse’s age can’t really be seen as a positive.

With an official BHA rating of 133, King Turgeon does creep into the 'trendy' official ratings band of 132-142, although Chianti Classico (157) and Coko Beach (159) both look high enough on that score and Gaboriot may not have the requisite class given his rating is still only 128 despite being nudged up 1lb for what can only be considered an encouraging Grand Sefton third a month ago.

The Jonjo and AJ O’Neill-trained IRON BRIDGE might be the one who best fits the ten-year trend criteria as while he’s still quite lightly-raced after 11 career starts over fences, the 136-rated eight-year-old is a sound jumper on the whole and he's promised to be a smart staying handicapper ever since he won a two-runner novices’ handicap chase over three miles and a furlong at Haydock two years ago.

Second (albeit a distant second) to Nassalam in last season’s Welsh Grand National at Chepstow, he’s well suited to testing conditions and would be having his first taste of the Aintree fences – no bad thing on recent evidence.

A return to Chepstow is clearly something that's being considered but he was declared for last Saturday's Coral Gold Cup before the underfoot conditions didn't really play ball and wet weather in the forecast for Liverpool this week will be music to the ears of his connections.

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Becher Chase winners

2023 Chambard

• Ran over the National fences: NO
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase starts: 16
• Age: 11
• BHA rating: 140

2022 Ashtown Lad

• Ran over the National fences: NO
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: NO
• Chase starts: 5
• Age: 8
• BHA rating: 138

2021 Snow Leopardess

• Ran over the National fences: NO
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 7
• Age: 9
• BHA rating: 140

2020 Vieux Lion Rouge

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 23
• Age: 11
• BHA rating: 140

2019 Walk In The Mill

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 23
• Age: 9
• BHA rating: 141

2018 Walk In The Mill

• Ran over the National fences: NO
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 20
• Age: 8
• BHA rating: 137

2017 Blaklion

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 13
• Age: 8
• BHA rating: 153

2016 Vieux Lion Rouge

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: NO
• Chase Starts: 7
• Age: 7
• BHA rating: 142

2015 Highland Lodge

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 16
• Age: 9
• BHA rating: 132

2014 Oscar Time

• Ran over the National fences: YES
• Won or placed (3 places) over 3m1f+: YES
• Chase Starts: 19
• Age: 13
• BHA rating: 136

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