The Lion In Winter is the strong Dewhurst favourite
Big-race preview & tip: Darley Dewhurst Stakes
By Sporting Life
16:27 · FRI October 11, 2024
We have the Timeform tip, pace guide, views from connections and key video replays for the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.
3.00 Newmarket - Darley Dewhurst Stakes
Timeform selection
THE LION IN WINTER has been most impressive in winning both his starts so far, notably when making all in a strong renewal of the Acomb at York, and he may prove hard to peg back once again. Shadow of Light is the obvious threat having been supplemented for this after his wide margin success in the Middle Park here 2 weeks ago, while his unbeaten stablemate Ancient Truth is another to consider with the form of his Superlative win having worked out well.
Timeform Top Rated
Shadow of Light - 1lb clear
Timeform Pace Guide
Pace Forecast : Weak
Draw Bias : N/A
Specific Pace Hint : Prominent racers are usually favoured here and a steadily run race will give THE LION IN WINTER (IRE) a helping hand at the expense of SHADOW OF LIGHT.
Individual Price Hint : EXPANDED (IRE) traded at least twice his starting Betfair SP when winning on his latest outing.
What the connections say
As far as championship two-year-old contests go, the Darley Dewhurst Stakes needs little introduction and another high-class renewal looks to be in prospect at Newmarket on Saturday.
Charlie Appleby has claimed the seven-furlong showpiece twice so far, both times with exciting operators, as Pinatubo was brilliant in his juvenile year and Native Trail was similarly smart.
Pinatubo and Native Trail were unbeaten heading to the Rowley Mile and already had Group Ones to their name by way of the National Stakes at the Curragh.
That had been thought a likely route for Ancient Truth after he won the Superlative Stakes in July, but instead he was given time and this will be his first run since then.
In contrast, stablemate Shadow Of Light has been relatively busy, winning the Middle Park after losing his unbeaten record when second in the Gimcrack at York.
It came as a minor surprise to see him supplemented for Dewhurst duty, but he is the pick of William Buick over Ancient Truth, who will be ridden by James Doyle.
“I’m delighted with the pair of them coming into it,” said Appleby.
“Shadow Of Light, you are going to tell me that two weeks ago you thought you were going to go sprinting. But as I look at it, he has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
“If he goes and wins, then fantastic, he adds an extra dimension to his three-year-old career and do we look at a Guineas route. If he gets beat, like Blue Point did, then we just cement he’s a sprinter and you can tailor your training programme in the spring. It’s a win-win situation, really.
“Ancient Truth is three from three coming into it and we haven’t seen him since the Superlative.
“We were toying with the idea of running in the National Stakes in Ireland, but I felt he was a horse who would be better given more time and I didn’t want to have two cracks at Group Ones – and this one, the Dewhurst, is an important Group One for us.
“He looks great, he’s strengthened and has done everything we have asked for.”
City Of Troy won the Dewhurst 12 months ago
While Appleby has two Dewhursts to his name, Aidan O’Brien has eight – including a certain City Of Troy 12 months ago.
He has a three-strong challenge this year, led by The Lion In Winter, a Sea The Stars colt who looked the real deal in the Acomb at York. Ryan Moore takes the ride, with Tom Marquand on the once-raced Expanded and Wayne Lordan aboard Rock Of Cashel.
O’Brien said of The Lion In Winter: “Everything seems good and he’s had his two runs now – everyone knows about him. He seems to be in good form.
“He missed the Goffs race and hopefully he will run well. No doubt it is important he comes here, if he is a Guineas horse it is very important to have experience (of Newmarket) and you know they are going to handle it, so if there is any ironing out you have to do, you have to do it.”
He went on: “We feel Rock Of Cashel is better than we have seen and we feel he is a little bit like his sister Snowfall (winner of Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks) – we could only win a maiden with her at two, but we always thought she was good.
“We think he’s a bit like that and there is plenty there we haven’t seen yet. He had a bad run the last day, but we think there is more to come. Whether that comes in the Dewhurst or whether we have to wait until next year we will find out.”
Completing the line-up is Seagulls Eleven, who is anything but a forlorn hope for Hugo Palmer in the blue and white of Brighton & Hove Albion, having been runner-up to Ancient Truth at Newmarket and then third in the National Stakes.
“He’s done better and better and better; he’s just improved all year,” said Palmer, whose Dubawi Legend gave Native Trail a real race in his Dewhurst victory. “He’s such a big horse, he’ll be better again next year.
“We couldn’t be happier with him going into the race and they say dogs are like their owners, but horses are like their owners.
“He is owned by 11 Brighton footballers and he’s Brighton taking on Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.
“He’s a lovely horse, we think the world of him, he’s proved he’s capable of mixing it at this level and he’s a big horse who’s still improving.
“Things didn’t go right at the Curragh, he probably over-raced for a little bit in the early part of the race and then virtually wore Ryan Moore (riding Henri Matisse) for half of the last furlong, so there are things that can go better for him going forwards.
“He needs to find probably 7-8lbs on what he’s done before, but he’s a young and improving two-year-old and why can’t he?”
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