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Big-race preview & tip: Betfair Chase

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Fri November 22, 2024 · 4h ago

We have the pace guide, views from connections and key video replays for the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

3.05 Haydock Betfair Chase

Timeform view:

AHOY SENOR is a risky betting proposition due to his suspect jumping, but he looked as good as ever ridden more patiently than usual when third under top weight in the Old Roan at Aintree on his comeback last month and could be worth chancing. The obvious threat is Grey Dawning, who was the leading British-trained novice last season and should have even more to offer this term. Haydock specialist and defending champion Royale Pagaille completes the shortlist.

Timeform Top Rated

Ahoy Senor - five pounds clear

Timeform Pace Guide

Pace Forecast : Weak

Specific Pace Hint : Hold-up horses are generally disadvantaged at this trip here and the presumed steady pace ought to mean AHOY SENOR (IRE) will be better placed than GOLD TWEET (FR) to take advantage.

Individual Price Hint : BRAVEMANSGAME (FR) is likely to take up a forward position but despite how things promise to unfold could well trade much lower than his Betfair SP.

What the connections say

Venetia Williams is hoping lightning can strike twice when Royale Pagaille returns from injury seeking a Betfair Chase double at Haydock on Saturday.

The Merseyside Grade One is known for its repeat winners down the years, with the likes of Kauto Star, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai all multiple entrants on the roll of honour. Now Williams’ Haydock specialist will bid to join that elite group having produced a career best to cast aside the reopposing Bravemansgame 12 months ago.

Staying on when a final-fence faller in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham most recently, the 10-year-old has a 301-day absence to defy. But he is proven when fresh and his handler has been pleased with his progress leading into what is something of a home fixture for the four-time course winner.

“I’m happy with him and it looks like there will be some rain on the day to soften up the ground a bit,” said Williams. “He had a nasty fall at Cheltenham in January and fractured his shoulder, it took plenty of time to get over that, so it’s nice to be getting him back on a racecourse. The race has a bigger field this year but we hope he runs well. It’s hard to tell with a horse like him (if he is as good as last year) until you get to a racecourse. But I’m certainly happy with his preparation.”

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If Royale Pagaille is entering the veteran stage of his career, then Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning could have it all before him as connections head to Haydock with Gold Cup ambitions.

A Grade One winner at the Cheltenham Festival in the spring, the seven-year-old appears to have all the attributes to make his mark in the staying division and now bids to follow in the footsteps of the stable’s Protektorat, who won this in 2022.

“He is proven around Haydock, which is a big plus, and he has stayed the trip already at Warwick,” said Skelton. “He is a Grade One winner and carries through top form from last year as a novice. I’ve never ducked the situation that he has got to come up to their level now, to Grade One level in open company, but I feel he can do it.

“I’ve always felt this horse will be a progressor all through his life. Touch wood, he’s done that for us, but it will be a totally different test on Saturday. We want to go down the Gold Cup route. That’s how you start out hoping and the racecourse will tell you whether that’s realistic or not.

“While Saturday is very important, we are not going there apprehensive in any way. We are going there excited with a really good horse. He is as good as any staying chaser we’ve had at this stage of their life.”

Lucinda Russell’s Ahoy Senor returns to a staying trip having dropped back in distance for his seasonal reappearance in Aintree’s Old Roan Chase.

A winner at the highest level over hurdles, he has often frustrated connections with his many near-misses over the larger obstacles, but their confidence is unwavering.

Peter Scudamore, Russell’s partner and assistant, said: “His home work is really good. He’s most impressive to watch. He makes you so proud. When he won at Aintree and beat various horses like Bravemansgame in that novice hurdle (Sefton Novices Hurdle in April 2021), you think Gold Cup. You think you’ve got that Gold Cup horse and then suddenly when you start racing at that level, you realise (what it takes).

“I don’t blame him in any way. Sometimes there aren’t reasons but I think there have been reasons. I’m not saying he’ll win a Gold Cup, but he’s perfectly capable of being very competitive in a Gold Cup. He was in front when he fell (in 2023). Although it was an uncharacteristic fall, he jumped it OK and it wasn’t one where he’s crashed into it.”

There are three Irish challengers, with JP McManus represented by Willie Mullins’ Capodanno – a supplementary entry into the contest – and Gavin Cromwell’s Limerick Lace.

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Shark Hanlon’s Hewick brings match fitness with him ahead of his raiding mission, with the King George hero edged out by Envoi Allen in Down Royal’s Champion Chase earlier this month.

“He didn’t deserve to lose at Down Royal, he put it all in, I think he’s actually better this year than he was last year,” said Hanlon. “I couldn’t believe they dropped him a couple of pounds after it. If he was trained by Willie (Mullins), Gordon (Elliott) or Paul Nicholls, he’d be rated 10lb higher, I think.

“His form is as good as there is, but I hope they don’t touch his mark because he’ll be a horse for the English National. I’m very happy to think he’s a 163 horse, anyway!”

Others in the mix include French challenger Gold Tweet, winner of the 2023 Cleeve Hurdle for Gabriel Leenders, plus Patrick Neville’s Charlie Hall scorer The Real Whacker and the Nicholls-trained Bravemansgame, who will be equipped with first-time blinkers after being beaten over three lengths at Wetherby.

Nicholls said: “The first time we put blinkers on See More Business, we saw a rapid transformation and he won the Gold Cup. It just sometimes focuses their mind.

“Harry (Cobden, jockey) thought he was keeping a bit to himself at Wetherby, I actually thought the ground was quick enough and he was flat out most of the way, but anyway, we put blinkers on this week and it definitely improved him. He’s worked nicely and schooled on Thursday morning and we have nothing to lose.

“I do think we had him fairly ready for the Charlie Hall – I don’t think it was lack of fitness that beat him at Wetherby. He’d been away and done plenty of work and I don’t think there’ll be massive improvement from run to run with him, I’m just hoping the blinkers sharpen him up and focus his mind.

“It’s a competitive race and blinkers or no blinkers, he’s got to run to his very best to be competitive.”