Tony McFadden on how prospects are looking brighter for Britain's Cheltenham Festival team this season.
The usual alarm bells were sounded on Tuesday following the release of the Cheltenham Gold Cup entries which featured only five horses based in Britain with the shortest-price contender available at 25/1. However, while it may be very unlikely that the home team will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup for the first time since Native River struck for the Tizzards in 2018, there are reasons to be more optimistic in plenty of other Grade 1s.
Last season Britain won only two of the 14 Grade 1s on offer at the Cheltenham Festival, with Dan Skelton responsible for both victories courtesy of Protektorat, who landed the Ryanair Chase, and Grey Dawning, who led home a British 1-2-3 in the now defunct Turners' Novices' Chase.
Other novice results weren't nearly as favourable, however, as Irish trainers proved dominant and sent out the first three home in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Arkle Novices' Chase and the race now known as the Turners Novices' Hurdle. Only The Jukebox Man, who went close in the Albert Bartlett when beaten a head by Stellar Story, and Giovinco, who ran well to finish third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, stopped the Irish also sweeping the places in the other two Grade 1 novices.
Such a one-sided showing was worryingly predictable, even before it became apparent that Nicky Henderson's team were struggling, as an Irish-trained horse topped Timeform's pre-race ratings for all the Grade 1 novices bar the Turners' Novices' Chase, while the top three on pre-race ratings for the Supreme and Arkle were all Irish.
There's still time for markers to be laid ahead of this year's Festival, but the performances so far this winter suggest there's enough top-end quality in Britain to expect greater returns.
There's little doubt that the pick of the novice chasers so far has been Sir Gino who put up a stunning display on his first start over fences in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (replay below) and earned a Timeform rating of 159P, which places him 4 lb clear at the head of the division with the potential for much more to come.
None of Nicky Henderson's other Arkle winners this century — Tiutchev (142p), Sprinter Sacre (150p), Simonsig (149P), Altior (152P) and Shishkin (151P) — were rated as high ahead of their second starts over fences.
It should be noted that Sir Gino made his chasing debut in a Grade 2, against a highly talented rival in Ballyburn, so was afforded a good opportunity to register a high rating, but the style of the success marked him out as a top-class chaser in the making and very much the one to beat in the Arkle.
He's certainly in the right hands to fulfil that potential as Sprinter Sacre is Timeform's highest-rated jumps horse of the modern era with a peak rating of 192, while Shishkin (181) and Altior (180) are among a relatively rare club who have reached a Timeform rating of 180 that is considered outstanding form.
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Henderson has another exciting novice chaser on his hands in Jango Baie (151p), Timeform's highest-rated novice hurdler in Britain last season who looks up to making an impact at the top level over fences based on his impressive chasing debut at Cheltenham where he beat Springwell Bay (154) who gave the form a big boost when bolting up on his handicap chase debut back at the same course.
There's no natural target at this year's Festival for Jango Baie, who hasn't raced beyond an extended two and a half miles, but Ben Pauling's The Jukebox Man (150p) is a strong contender for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. The Jukebox Man was only narrowly denied in the Albert Bartlett at last year's Festival and he has quickly proved himself at least as good a chaser following smooth wins on his first couple of starts over fences, including in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton.
There's also a bit of depth as there have been 11 novice chasers who have reached a Timeform rating of at least 150 this season and seven of them are based in Britain, with L'Eau du Sud (153p), Kalif du Berlais (152p) and Jingko Blue (150p) joining the quartet listed above.
One race in which the Irish have proved especially dominant in recent years has been the Turners Novices' Hurdle as the last time a horse based in Britain won the contest was in 2017 with Willoughby Court, while the only placed contender from Britain in the last five editions was Bravemansgame who was third in 2021.
However, it's possible to make a case that the leading British contender for this year's edition, The New Lion, has also been the most impressive novice hurdler anywhere this season. That isn't quite reflected in the Timeform ratings as Gordon Elliott's Romeo Coolio, who looks bound for the Supreme, earned a figure of 150p, the highest in the division so far, when ridden out to win the Future Champions Novice Hurdle by nine lengths at Leopardstown, while his stablemate The Yellow Clay earned a rating of 147p following the Lawlor's of Naas Novice Hurdle which provided a thorough test in gruelling conditions. But The New Lion (143P) didn't need to come off the bridle to win the Challow Novices' Hurdle by four and three-quarter lengths for the Skeltons and he still has the Timeform Large P to show he's capable of much better form when it's required. JP McManus seemingly thinks so having subsequently added him to his powerful team.
Potters Charm, with a rating of 140p, still has some way to go before he can be compared to The New One who was rated 151p prior to winning the Turners for Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2013, but he's unbeaten after four starts over hurdles, including a win a in Grade 1 company last time, so he has undeniably made a promising start to his career.
There's not been much else of note among the novice hurdlers so far, but it has been such slim pickings for the British in the novice hurdle division in the last couple of seasons that producing even two leading contenders represents a positive development.
The Irish have also dominated recent editions of the Triumph Hurdle but the British record would probably look a lot better had Goshen successfully jumped the final flight when clear in 2020 and had Nicky Henderson's horses been healthy enough for Sir Gino to run last year. James Owen's East India Dock (144p) sets the clear standard on form this season following the retirement of French-trained Finale Hurdle winner Nietzsche Has. Lulamba, bought by Joe Donnelly and sent to Henderson after winning at Auteuil in October, has been cut in the Triumph Hurdle betting to such an extent that he's now challenging for favouritism ahead of his intended debut for new connections at Kempton on Saturday.
Even in the Champion Bumper, a race Britain hasn't won since Ballyandy scored in 2016, there is a leading contender this year. Admittedly that horse hails from Ireland, but Windbeneathmywings was with David Pipe when he produced the standout display in the division at Ascot where he earned a Timeform rating of 121, only 1 lb lower than the figure Jasmin de Vaux registered when landing the 2024 Champion Bumper. Dan Skelton's Fortune de Mer (108p) was also impressive when winning a listed bumper at Cheltenham in November and looks better than most challengers British trainers have mustered in this race in recent years (there have been only two placed horses from Britain in the last five years).
Returning stars also bolster the British challenge in open company with Constitution Hill back and bidding to regain the Champion Hurdle crown he didn't have the opportunity to defend last year. He's unbeaten under Rules and his Timeform rating of 177, which he admittedly didn't need to come close to matching on his return in the Christmas Hurdle, has been bettered by only five two-mile hurdlers in the firm's experience.
Henderson-trained stablemate Jonbon has compiled a fine record of his own comprising 16 wins from 19 starts, with one of those defeats coming against Constitution Hill in the 2022 Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Jonbon is Britain's highest-rated chaser with a Timeform rating of 174 and is understandably favourite for the Champion Chase — a race which he was forced to miss last season — for all the 11-year-old dual Champion Chase winner Energumene (177) showed a higher level of form prior to his layoff.
The Prestbury Cup may not go down to the wire, as was the case in 2019 when it was tied 14 winners a piece, but the signs are that Britain can at least exceed the low bar set in recent seasons.
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