Betfred Derby preview: Dan Briden with four dark horses for 2024 race

The first forfeit stage of the Betfred Derby closed this week, as opposed to the traditional closing time around Christmas when the entrants are still yearlings, and it has yielded 72 entries.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Aidan O’Brien dominates numerically. The Ballydoyle handler has 17 colts entered, notably unbeaten juveniles City of Troy and Henry Longfellow. Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Los Angeles also features, as does Group 2 scorer Diego Valezquez and promising debut winners Euphoric and Ocean of Dreams.

City of Troy is clear ante-post favourite after looking imperious in three runs at two, culminating in a three-and-a-half length victory in the Dewhurst Stakes. Although out of Galileo mare Together Forever, she appeared to not stay 12f, including when only seventh in the 2015 Oaks. However, her sister Forever Together certainly did stay as she won the 2018 edition of the fillies Classic, so there are grounds to think that City of Troy would get the Derby distance if required.

Victory in the 2000 Guineas would almost certainly see the Coolmore team line him up for a bid at immortality by doing the Guineas-Derby double, such is his future worth as a stallion. Not overly big and clearly well balanced having handled Newmarket well, Epsom ought to hold no fears for City of Troy.

Two other interesting Ballydoyle entries - particularly where middle/staying distances are concerned this year - are Galileo colts Grosvenor Square and Illinois.

Grosvenor Square signed off his three-race juvenile campaign with an all-the-way success in the 1m 1f Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown, looking the strong stayer he is bred to be as a half-brother to connections’ Irish Derby/Queen’s Vase winner Santiago. Quite whether he has the class for a Derby remains to be seen, though he’ll undoubtedly find another hit of improvement in 2024 for tackling 12/14f. He may prove more of a St Leger candidate, though.

Illinois has plenty to recommend him on pedigree alone as a half-brother to Arc/King George heroine Danedream, though brother Venice Beach could only manage 12th of 18 behind Wings of Eagles in the 2017 Derby.

Illinois was narrowly beaten into third behind aforementioned stablemate Los Angeles in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud when last seen, though that rival had the benefit of the favoured stands’ side rail that day. It is hard to believe there won’t be a significant amount of improvement to come from Illinois over middle distances during his second season, and it will be interesting to see how he’s campaigned this spring in relation to his more proven stablemates.

Both colts could attempt to provide sire Galileo with his sixth Derby winner, and the 2024 renewal is likely to be the late stallion’s final chance of glory in this race with his final crop (this year’s two-year-olds) numbering just 13. Incidentally, Illinois is bred on the hugely successful Galileo/Danehill cross but, rather curiously, it has never produced the winner of this race albeit variants of it have (Anthony Van Dyck and Serpentine being out of mares by Exceed And Excel and Danehill Dancer respectively).

Dubawi and father Dubai Millennium before him didn’t run up to their best when contesting the Derby, with the latter encountering his sole defeat in a glittering career when ninth to Oath in the 1999 edition of the race. Dubawi was a well-held third behind Motivator in 2004.

Dubawi the sire has yet to produce a winner of this race, with the relatively few to have tried attaining a finishing position of no better than fifth. It should be said, however, that the best of his progeny either weren’t aimed at or ready enough to contest the Epsom showpiece.

Interestingly, the two main contenders by Dubawi for Charlie Appleby, namely Ancient Wisdom and Arabian Crown, are free of the dominant Urban Sea gene in their pedigree while Northern Dancer doesn’t feature until the fifth generation.

Both colts arrive into their second season appealing as Dubawi’s best chance of having a Derby winner - mainly in terms of stamina, though both look high-class individuals. Arabian Crown was barely off the bridle to land the 10f Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket while Ancient Wisdom signed off a productive juvenile campaign with victory in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.

Ancient Wisdom is out of a mare who won over 12/12.5f at Group 3 and Listed level and counted several 12f+ winners among her siblings, notably brother Goldwaki who was successful at Group 3/Listed level over the Derby distance and finished fourth in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris. The standout name in the immediate family is the crack miler Goldikova, but a number of her own siblings by stouter influences had few issues with staying middle distances. Taking it even further back, Ancient Wisdom’s fifth dam is the 1981 Arc winner Gold River.

Arabian Crown’s pedigree is slightly odd insomuch as full sister Everest Rose posted her career-best performance when winning a 7f Listed contest in Germany, but she’s very much the exception rather than the rule. Monsun half-sister The Juliet Rose won the 12f Group 2 Prix de Royallieu twice, while dam Dubai Rose bagged a pair of 12f Listed events in Germany. Dubai Rose’s half-sister Soho Rose is dam of Prix de Royallieu winner Sea La Rosa and Great Voltigeur Stakes winner Deauville Legend.

Along with unbeaten Ballydoyle colt Henry Longfellow - himself a son of 2016 Oaks winner Minding, albeit she was best at shorter trips - Dubawi has perhaps never had such a strong hand for Epsom.

The unbeaten Invincible Spirit colt Ghostwriter will attempt to give trainer Clive Cox a first Classic success, but the Royal Lodge winner doesn’t strike as guaranteed to get the 12f trip given his sire’s speed influence and the distaff side of the family containing several sprinters/milers, most notably Zafonic. He will surely be kept to 1m this year, especially if running well in the 2000 Guineas.

I thought I would take a look at a quartet of promising colts who, though far removed from the required standard for a Derby as things stand, are likely to improve a chunk this spring and therefore potentially put themselves in line for a crack at a trial at the very least.

ALMAQAM (b c Lope de Vega - Talmada (Cape Cross))

Form: 4- Trainer: Ed Walker Owner: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum

Dubawi half-brother Saleymm improved with racing and has registered placed efforts in Listed company the last twice. Dam Talmada also got better with age, winning a 10f Listed event in the autumn of her four-year-old campaign prior to chasing home Curvy in the 10f Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes. The family is a mixed one in terms of stamina requirements, with Talmada being a half-sister to Champagne Stakes winner Saamidd while the likes of very smart milers Barathea, Gossamer and Zabar appear further back in the pedigree. Their Generous half-sister Bombazine was placed at Listed level over 10f and went on to produce several smart winners at trips ranging from 8-12f.

It could be argued that Almaqam’s optimum distance may prove to be 10f on balance, but his debut fourth in a 1m novice event at Newmarket last autumn suggested he may well prove more of a staying type, off the bridle soon after halfway and only winding up fully come the line.

He has an awfully long way to go to be considered as even a live outsider at Epsom, but it should be remembered that Ed Walker’s two Derby runners, namely English King (debuted in the same race as Almaqam) and Waipiro headed into their three-year-old careers with a similarly low level of form. Indeed, the latter had finished only sixth in a Kempton maiden at two before winning a novice event on his return at three and supplementing that with an excellent second in the Lingfield Derby Trial.

Almaqam is liable to show both swift and significant improvement this spring once tackling 10f, and he could be destined for a Derby trial himself should his return to action prove successful. It may even be that he returns in that same 10f novice event at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April won 12 months ago by Waipiro - a race, incidentally, once won by a certain Commander In Chief in its previous incarnation as the Museum Maiden Stakes.

ANZAC DAY (b c Australia - Merville (Montjeu))

Form: 41- Trainer: Andrew Balding Owner: Brook Farm Bloodstock

A son of 2014 winner Australia, the aptly-named Anzac Day boasts a smart pedigree with it including top level winners such as Ectot, Meditate and Most Improved while there are several other black type winners close up on the page. It is a rather mixed line in terms of stamina requirements, but there can be little doubt that Anzac Day will relish 12f based upon his juvenile campaign.

Having been much too green to show his true worth when a strong-finishing fourth in a 1m 1f event at Goodwood on debut, he ran out an emphatic 5-length winner of a 10f maiden at Newmarket just 10 days later. He looks the type to thrive for another winter and a further increase in trip, to the point whereby 12f may prove on the sharper side for him in time.

However, there is little doubt he will make his return in a Derby trial of some description, with the Sandown Classic Trial appealing as a likely destination. Balding has won three of the last eight renewals of that particular race including with Bangkok, who was disappointing when beating just one rival home in the 2019 Derby.

MEYDAAN (b c Frankel - Nezwaah (Dubawi))

Form: 1- Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford Owner: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum

Another Sheikh Ahmed homebred, this time out of his 10f Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes winner Nezwaah, herself the daughter of a 12f Listed winner. Therefore, he is bred on the increasingly-influential Frankel/Dubawi cross that has already produced a Derby winner in Adayar (2021), along with other top flight winners Dream Castle, Homeless Songs and Mostahdaf.

On the face of it, Meydaan’s credentials seem less than impressive given his winning debut came in a 10f maiden at Newcastle last November. However, you’ll quickly be reminded upon positing such a notion that Enable won her maiden there en route to stardom, as did Without Parole and Stradivarius. Indeed, the race Meydaan won has produced the aforementioned English King, subsequent Prix Vermeille winner Teona and last season’s smart middle distance colt Chesspiece.

Meydaan also looked something out of the ordinary when posting that debut success, tanking along and soon in complete control as he readily saw off fellow newcomer and market rival Mr Hampstead, with the pair drawing nicely clear of the remainder. Meydaan will almost certainly kick off his three-year-old campaign under a penalty in a novice race, with the 10f contest at Newmarket’s Craven meeting (confined to once-raced horses) or the less-restrictive novice event over the same distance at Newbury a few days later looking obvious starting points.

MISSION TO MARS (b c Sea The Stars - Baino Hope (Jeremy))

Form: Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Owner: Saeed Suhail

Putting forward an unraced horse may seem rather ridiculous, though it has of course been done before, most recently by 2013 winner Ruler of The World, who for good measure led home another unraced two-year-old in Libertarian. Commander In Chief also did it in 1993, and who can forget Hala Bek’s bold attempt in 2006 which only came unstuck when he swerved right at the vital moment and lost out by half a length to Sir Percy in a blanket finish.

As a 500,000gns yearling and the son of 2009 winner Sea The Stars and a French 12.5f Group 2 winner, Mission To Mars is hardly lacking for paper credentials. It also helps that he hails from a stable that has sent out the winner of the Derby on no less than six occasions, including twice in these silks via Kris Kin (2003) and Desert Crown (2022).

None of that means that Mission To Mars will follow suit, of course, but Stoute is hardly one to waste an entry, so this colt’s very presence among the initial field suggests he has shown plenty on the practice grounds at Newmarket. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that Stoute sent out Passenger in last year’s renewal (albeit finished only 12th of 14), who was unraced at two and had won the Wood Ditton Stakes prior to his third place finish in the Dante Stakes at York.

It would come as little surprise to see Mission To Mars attempt to follow an identical route as he bids to give his sire a perhaps overdue second Derby success after Harzand’s victory in 2016.

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