Betfred Derby preview: Big Epsom questions answered

Where are you with City Of Troy heading into the Betfred Derby?

David Johnson: So firmly on the fence, that I have splinters I’m afraid. On the one hand, the 2-y-o form he has in the book clearly marks him down as having shown more ability, and by a clear margin, than any of his rivals and in a Derby field that is thinning out by the day, a reproduction of that is likely to prove sufficient. However, you then have to take into account such a lifeless display in the 2000 Guineas, where it was clear he was in serious trouble at halfway. There's the precedent of last year with Auguste Rodin, and connections seem not to have lost any faith in his ability, though they were also making the same bullish noises ahead of Newmarket. Forget all the talking though and it ultimately comes down to price and at 2/1, I'm happy enough to take him on.

Billy Nash: Good question! I certainly couldn’t back him at the current odds but wouldn’t want to lay him either. It is too early to say that he simply hasn’t trained on but that no show at Newmarket is hard to ignore. However, Auguste Rodin proved last year that you can bomb out in the 2000 Guineas and win at Epsom and it is entirely possible that City of Troy is as good as Aidan O’Brien keeps telling us he is. Either way, I'm happy to watch him.

Rory King: He was so abject in the Guineas, but then again so was Auguste Rodin last year, while his full brother Bertinelli was third in a good King George V Handicap last year, giving hope over the trip, and his 2-y-o form stacks up very well, not least courtesy of Haatem. This is far from a vintage Derby, contenders have fallen by the wayside for one reason or another, and therefore I’m leaning towards thinking he can bounce back.

Which other Ballydoyle colts interest you for the Classic?

RK: Los Angeles obviously warrants respect as one of just 2 unbeaten colts in the race (alongside the once-raced Voyage), and it’s hard to think he won’t be suited by the trip, but I just wonder whether he’s quite the type to thrive around Epsom.

BN: Los Angeles. He wasn’t particularly impressive in the Leopardstown Derby trial but everything about him suggests that he will improve for the step up to this trip. He won a Group 1 last year, has won on soft and good to firm ground and, in most years, would be Ballydoyle’s number one hope.

DJ: I’d be lying if I said I’m particularly excited about any of the others to be perfectly honest. Diego Velazquez is reportedly more likely to go to France so that means Los Angeles is heading up the support team and it’s perhaps harsh to knock a colt that has answered every call so far. That said, the Group 1 he won in France as a 2-y-o is one of the poor relations at that level and he was no more than workmanlike in grinding past his stablemate in a trial that once had a good record of throwing up the Derby winner, but hasn’t done so since High Chaparral in 2002.

Charlie Appleby's Derby hand has been significantly weakened - how big a player could Ancient Wisdom still be for him?

RK: On his wide-margin win over Chief Little Rock and Ambiente Friendly in the Autumn Stakes, he’s certainly got the form to think he can be a player, but it would need a huge step forward from his return in the Dante just a fortnight ago, and I’m not convinced he’s got the action of a horse who’ll be at his best around Epsom.

DJ: But for the sad death of Hidden Law after the Chester Vase, and the setback suffered by Arabian Crown, Ancient Wisdom would be the clear third choice in the Charlie Appleby pecking order as he bids to win a third Derby and it’s hard to think he won’t have to wait a bit longer. Aside from the hoodoo around his sire Dubawi’s record in the race, Ancient Wisdom has the sort of action that suggests a trip to Epsom is unlikely to bring out the best in him. Although connections will be encouraged by recent ground updates and the unsettled forecast, it’s hard to see it riding testing enough to play to Ancient Wisdom’s strengths and he’s easy enough to pass over on the back of a fairly underwhelming return in the Dante.

BN: I'd be loath to dismiss him, especially if the ground is on the soft side of good. Was undoubtedly a bit disappointing in the Dante but is a very attractive price judged on his form from last year and will stay this trip. Looks a solid each-way candidate to me.

Ambiente Friendly's connections have been in the headlines in the build-up - what chance does their Lingfield Trial winner have?

DJ: Well, it’s a smaller one than they would have had with Callum Shepherd in the plate I think. Ambiente Friendly has looked a tricky ride, even in victory at Lingfield and having someone who knows him under race conditions would have been beneficial. A colt that continues to be keen in the early stages, I’d be very concerned he could pull his chance away in the uphill climb in the first four furlongs of the Derby.

It’s hardly as if Shepherd has been replaced by a big name with bags of experience at the top level either. Havlin has ridden in the Derby just twice, finishing no better than seventh and has essentially made a career as a second-string jockey for a top yard, with even his recent Group 1 success on Audience coming when he was allowed to do his own thing, with far more of the attention heaped on his stablemate Inspiral. Compare Shepherd’s record at Epsom (8/47) with Havlin’s (5/86) and it continues to look one of the most bizarre decisions made by an owner ahead of a big race in recent times.

BN: Wasn't really on my radar for this race prior to Lingfield and it remains to be seen if he is as good as that win made him look. Can be a bit headstrong, which is a concern, and looks plenty short enough in the betting to me. I’d be happy to look elsewhere.

RK: On the face of it quite a big one as a ready winner of a trial in a good time, with the third home having won a listed race himself on the weekend (albeit quite fortuitously). That said, even in a well-run race at Lingfield he still threatened to be keen for a couple of furlongs and I worry that might be an issue for him, particularly under a new jockey – I can’t have that as a positive.

What else is shortlist material?

RK: The Blue Riband Trial at Epsom is in grave danger of becoming a misnomer in the years since Cracksman won it, but I think this year’s winner, Bellum Justum, can outrun his odds on Saturday. He was beaten on his first 3 starts at 2 but is an improving horse, his defeat of Inisherin in a big-field Newmarket maiden on his final run last year looking none too shabby, even if that one did improve for the drop to sprinting on the weekend, while I thought he looked well balanced and handled the track well when winning that Blue Riband Trial, and there’s every chance he can improve again for the further step up in trip. As well as an Oaks winner (Taghrooda) and the last 2 Coronation Cup winners, Sea The Stars has had a Derby winner with Harzand and horses like Storm The Stars and Mojo Star hit the frame in the race at big prices

BN: If the rain does come that will bring Dallas Star into the equation. There didn’t seem to be any fluke about his Ballysax win and he is bred to be suited by this trip. Obviously, he needs to improve again but one could do worse than have a small interest on him at a huge price.

DJ: I realise I haven’t been particularly complimentary about many of the potential runners and it looks like a weak renewal unless City of Troy can bounce back to his best. Dancing Gemini would be a superb story for local trainer Roger Teal and you have to go back to 1932 to find the last Epsom-trained winner of the classic. Though he hasn’t yet raced beyond 1m, he’s by one Derby winner in Camelot and his dam is by another in Australia, so his claims are far from hopeless. He’s got form in Group 1 company having arguably been unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas.

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