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Best value bets on Saturday: Preview & tips for Cheltenham on Paddy Power Gold Cup day November 13
Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 13
1pt win Zanza in 2.15 Cheltenham at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Optimise Prime in 2.50 Cheltenham at 20/1 (BetVictor, bet365)
1pt win Punxsutawney Phil in 3.25 Cheltenham at 20/1 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Already advised:
Going for Gold with well-treated Zanza
The 2021 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham has just about everything you'd wish to see in a high-class Saturday feature, from unexposed young pretenders to hard-knocking handicappers who have been there and done it, plus the odd Grade One-winning novice thrown in for good measure.
Combine all that with some of the more politically-charged news angles involving Simply The Betts and Lalor having their first starts for champion trainer Paul Nicholls after leaving Harry Whittington and Kayley Woollacott respectively, and Bryony Frost (Simply The Betts) potentially eyeballing Robbie Dunne on fellow prominent racer Farinet, and we clearly have an absorbing race in prospect.
I can’t claim to have had a fly on the wall in Ditcheat but there seems to have been a concerted effort to downplay the prospects of Simply The Betts this autumn and if it has been some sort of Fergie-esque tactical ploy in an attempt to take any heat off the owner, or jockey, in the run-up to the big race, then Nicholls has played a blinder.
The joint-top weight – who like Lalor resumes following a summer breathing operation – was 7/1 for this race last year but made several mistakes and finished a laboured sixth from a mark of 154. He’s not been sighted since but consequently gets to run off a 3lb lower mark and he’s still fractionally overlooked in the betting around 14/1.
However, there is seemingly loads of competition for the lead in this field, including Dan Skelton’s ace Protektorat, Fergal O’Brien’s Paint The Dream, Emma Lavelle’s Manofthemountain, last year’s winner Coole Cody and the aforementioned Farinet, so a soft slot up front looks far from guaranteed for Simply The Betts.
Additionally, no matter how good Nicholls and Skelton are at preparing horses first time out, the last five Paddy Power winners have all had a run under their belts so I’m also leaning away from the well-backed Al Dancer, who starts out for Sam Thomas in yet another high-profile stable switch having been moved from Nigel Twiston-Davies.
With the lowly-weighted Galahad Quest already on side (click here for full reasoning in antepost preview) following his eyecatching Wetherby prep - the same race used by Splash Of Ginge before he won this - the eye is drawn to Philip Hobbs’ ZANZA, who is - strictly speaking – the best-handicapped horse in the race based on what we know to this point.
That rings true due to the fact he was a close (and closing) third in the recent Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, where he was running from 4lb out of the handicap. The official assessor has subsequently seen fit to raise his mark to that from which he competed in Devon (148), meaning he’s favourably treated getting in here off his old mark of 144.
That’s all fairly immaterial if he’s not up to the job but the way he ran at Exeter, and on his final start last year when sixth in the Red Rum at Aintree, suggests he’s now crying out for a step up in distance and he’s totally unexposed (untried) over Saturday’s trip. The furthest he’s gone in any race is two miles, three furlongs when winning a Taunton novice hurdle in his youth, which also bodes well for the weekend experiment.
There has got to be a small question mark over Zanza’s ability to handle Cheltenham, admittedly, having failed to really fire here four times in the past, but he was sixth in the 2019 Greatwood Hurdle to be fair to him, and I love the fact he’ll be able to jump at two-mile pace, just off the breakneck gallop, around what is essentially a pretty sharp track.
Above all, though, the unseasonably dry weather means he’ll be getting his ideal racing conditions, having bolted up on good ground at Newbury 12 months ago. He’d previously split Allmankind (to whom he was conceding 8lb) and Stolen Silver in a novice chase at Warwick, so I’ve no doubt he’s classy enough to mix in this company and if he gets the trip he’s got to be in the shake-up.
Pauling can Prime one for return to action
Proschema drops in class and trip for the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle and he’s going to be really popular on his third start of the season.
However, he’s gone up another 3lb to a career-high mark of 145 and he’s been beaten a few times at skinny prices in the past too, so I’ll take a chance on the returning OPTIMISE PRIME.
He was beaten out of sight by Bob Olinger and the rest in the Ballymore here at the Festival in March but had previously been going the right way, winning twice at Hereford during November and December before a fair effort at Market Rasen.
He was a well-held third there but winner Minella Drama went on to be second to My Drogo in the Grade One at Aintree, while runner-up Stoner’s Choice won by six lengths from 139 in an Ascot handicap next time out and he was beaten under two lengths off his revised mark (143) on his recent return to action.
Optimise Prime goes handicapping for the first time with a mark of 129 which could prove lenient and it wouldn’t be a great shock if Ben Pauling has him ready as he can be first time out at this meeting.
Phil your boots with well-treated Ellison runner
Skelton may well have the favourite in the Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle too as Unexpected Party looks to follow up his novices’ handicap hurdle win at Wetherby last month.
The assessor has hammered him with an 11lb hike but the fact he comes for this rather than a novice race under a penalty suggests connections reckon he’s still well in.
It could take something unusual to get the better of him but off an even lower rating I could see PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL going really well for Brian Ellison and Danny McMenamin, who have enjoyed some fantastic days here including winning the Greatwood Hurdle at this fixture in 2018.
Punxsutawney Phil is clearly a work in progress and this represents a massive step up in grade from the maiden hurdle he won at Sedgefield last month, but I liked his previous Perth effort too behind Irish raider Clondaw Hollow, despite losing a shoe, and an opening mark of 113 offers him the perfect opportunity to progress through the ranks.
He should appreciate the move up to this new trip and can outrun his odds.
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Published at 1600 GMT on 12/11/21
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