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Best Bets: Horse racing tips from Timeform Sporting Life team
The Timeform Sporting Life racing experts provide their best bets for Saturday's action.
Racing betting tips: Saturday November 30
1pt win Demnat in 12.40 Newbury at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Kala Conti in 1.55 Fairyhouse at 5/2 (bet365)
0.5 pt e/w Ballee in 2.25 Newbury at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4 General)
1pt win Etalon in 3.35 Newbury at 6/1 (General)
Demnat - 12.40 Newbury (Lewis Tomlinson)
Venetia Williams has come flying out the traps in recent weeks after her regular summer break and I fancy she will land another big Saturday winner courtesy of Demnat.
The seven-year-old belied an absence of 32 months when making a striking winning debut for the yard at Ludlow in February, never needing to be asked for maximum exertion to give a wide-margin beating to Galahad Quest. He then wasn’t given best chance to build on that later in the season as the drop to two miles looked against him at Newbury next time before he shaped up well for a long way in the Kim Muir but seemed to find such a slog on heavy ground too much of a stamina test.
He returns to an intermediate trip for the first time since his sparking display at Ludlow and is attractively handicapped from a mark only 5 lb higher than for that success. Coupled with his yard’s fine form and proven capability to score after a lay-off, I’m hopeful Demnat can get right back on track at a fair price around 5/1.
Kala Conti - 1.55 Fairyhouse (Tony McFadden)
Kala Conti showed useful form in juvenile hurdles last season, notably winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, but she produced an even better performance on Timeform's figures when winning a big-field and competitive handicap hurdle on her return at Down Royal four weeks ago.
Kala Conti was headed after making a mistake at the second last but she showed a good attitude to regain the lead at the final flight and then forged a length and three-quarters clear up the run-in, clocking a good timefigure which adds some substance to the performance.
The form she showed at Down Royal places her 7 lb clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for this Grade 3 and she sets a good standard for some admittedly unexposed rivals to reach.
Ballee - 2.25 Newbury (James Cooper)
The rain has come just in time for Newbury and as a result, a bigger-than-usual field of 13 are declared for the Gerry Feilden (2.25pm).
As is the norm for handicaps such as this, second-season hurdlers Jeriko du Reponet and Queens Gamble head the betting but a lot further down the list, Ballee makes plenty of appeal.
Representing a training combination in fine form, Ballee shaped really nicely in another deep handicap at Aintree’s National meeting, finding plenty for pressure to lead again after the last, only to be mugged close home by one detached from the main pack at one point in a crazily-run race.
The Swinton at Haydock a month later probably isn’t a race to judge him too harshly on and, having had a breathing operation ahead of this reappearance, Ballee is capable of doing some damage from this sort of mark.
Etalon - 3.35 Newbury (Dan Barber)
The strong finish mustered by Djelo was the main analytical takeaway from the Haldon Gold Cup but the performance of Etalon - much further back at the line - struck a positive chord as well, given he almost certainly needed the run more than a couple yet went strongly until successive uncharacteristically sloppy leaps at the first two in the home straight as the race was fully developing hastened his defeat.
Sure to be all the sharper for that, and with sights lowered not just compared to Exeter but also the company kept at the backend of his novice campaign, he looks the clear value in the closing race on Newbury's big day.
Published at 1708 GMT on 29/11/24
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