Ben Linfoot has four bets for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival including a 50/1 each-way fancy in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The Verdict tips: Friday March 17
1pt e.w. Saint Sam in 2.10 Cheltenham at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Favori De Champdou in 2.50 Cheltenham at 11/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Royale Pagaille in 3.30 Cheltenham at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Might I in the 5.30 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
Might-y bet in the Martin Pipe
Harry Fry’s MIGHT I looks ahead of the handicapper in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, the closing race of the Festival.
The son of Fame And Glory learnt his trade behind Constitution Hill and Jonbon last season, before finishing second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree over 2m4f last April.
That was just his fourth run over hurdles and he’s had just two since – when too keen over three miles at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance and then when second behind Hacker Des Places in a 2m1f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day where he stayed on well to be beaten a neck.
The form of the Cheltenham race looks strong – the third, Pikar, came out and beat Henri The Second over four lengths in a Warwick novice – and moving back up to this extended 2m4f under Lorcan Murtagh looks ideal.
Harry Fry has applied a tongue-tie and he knows what he’s doing in that department (16 wins from 92 at 17.39%, with a healthy 58.01% of rivals beaten), so this horse could be the one to sink the admittedly hugely respected Irish battalion.
The Verdict: Back Might I in the Festival finale
Galopin for Gold but Royale can go well
It has been a fantastic week at the Cheltenham Festival with Constitution Hill standing out from an equine brilliance perspective, but the best could still be yet to come as Galopin Des Champs goes for glory in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday.
The seven-year-old looks in a great place to form a challenge for the highlight of the week after amassing a seriously impressive body of work over fences ever since he stormed onto the chasing scene at Leopardstown just 15 months ago.
He has pretty much been foot-perfect over fences from the start, his agonising fall at last year's Cheltenham Festival the only blip, but even that has turned out to be a positive as he looks a much safer proposition over his obstacles now he has gathered experience.
If A Plus Tard bounces back to the form of his win in this race last year then Galopin could find himself in a battle, but the ground is probably softer than ideal for Henry de Bromhead's horse and that swings the balance of power firmly in the favour of the favourite.
It took Willie Mullins a long time to crack this race, but two wins with Al Boum Photo has given him the launchpad to unleash his best horses at the contest and in Galopin Des Champs he has found a challenger who has all the tools to thrive in the heat of this unique battle. I have no doubt that he’ll stay.
The general 15/8 on Galopin could well get shorter and I expect he will win, but the Gold Cup has a rich history of having big-priced placed horses even if that trend has been diluted in the most recent renewals.
With that in mind I'm having a small each-way bet on ROYALE PAGAILLE at 50/1 (bet365 are that price and four places).
It’s a little concerning that Venetia Williams is struggling for form but these things can turn around quickly and this horse is overpriced in conditions that will suit.
Fifth and sixth in the last two Gold Cups on Good to Soft ground, Royale Pagaille excels on ground more testing than that and he’s finally got something like his conditions in the race after a wet week at Prestbury Park.
His record after a six-month break or more for Williams is 21212 and his record on soft or heavy ground is even better, while he ran well in second to Bravemansgame in the King George when last seen 81 days ago.
He's been forgotten about and while beating Galopin Des Champs looks unlikely, he looks a good bet to muscle his way into the frame. I'm backing him each-way and will take a look at the ‘without the favourite’ markets as well.
The Verdict: Back Royale Pagaille each-way in the Gold Cup
Favori favoured in Albert Bartlett
In the Albert Bartlett Gordon Elliott’s FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU has been underestimated at double-figure prices.
The eight-year-old has been difficult to train and has had long spells off the track, but Elliott has finally had a clean run with him this season and the upside is he’s got a mature novice hurdler on his hands.
He’s three from three in three-mile novice hurdles in testing ground this campaign, an enviable C.V compared to many of his rivals here, and he looked very good when powering clear in the Grade 2 Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle at Limerick over Christmas.
The form of that race was emphatically boosted by four-and-a-quarter length second Letsbeclearaboutit (reopposes), who won by 22 lengths at Punchestown after that and Favori De Champdou missed the Dublin Racing Festival and its better ground to come straight here.
The Limerick novice hurdle has been a rich source for Albert Bartlett winners over the years, with Weapon’s Amnesty, Martello Tower, Penhill and Vanillier all winning this race at Cheltenham having graduated from the Limerick race, and Favori De Champdou rates a great bet.
The Verdict: Back Favori De Champdou in the Albert Bartlett
Saint all set for County bounty
Mullins could have a fantastic day as he has loads of horses with very good chances but one of his that looks underestimated is SAINT SAM in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle at 40/1.
Even though Mullins won this race with 11/4 chance State Man last year (his fourth winner in the race in the last eight years) three of his six winners went off 20/1 or bigger and it usually pays to closely inspect all of the contenders from the yard.
Saint Sam has suffered for losing his confidence over fences as a five-year-old, when he was pitched into Grade 1 company on his second fencing start before he unseated in the Sporting Life Arkle.
Another poor fencing run as a novice at Punchestown curtailed his chasing career for now, but he returned at the same track in December with an impressive win in testing ground over hurdles.
He's pulled too hard in two subsequent runs on faster conditions, but the ground has come right for him and we could see a totally different horse dropped back to two miles in a huge field.
Jack Foley (claiming 3lb) takes the ride having ridden Scaramanga (50/1) to fourth in the Coral Cup and Lecky Watson (80/1) to fourth in the Bumper on Wednesday, and it looks like he’s got on another outsider with an each-way shout here.
The Verdict: Back Saint Sam in the County Hurdle at 40/1
Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 16/03/2023
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