Ben Linfoot column: 2000 Guineas - a classic Classic?


Ben Linfoot reflects on the recent 2000 Guineas trials and highlights a Redcar eyecatcher in his latest column.

On the Guineas trials...


Two trials, two verdicts. Both the same. There is no hung jury here. They are both guilty as charged. Guilty of the throwing of one’s hat into the ring for a Classic, or, more specifically, the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.

Rarely has the evidence from these two trials; the Craven and the Greenham, been so clear cut. So often they are unsatisfactory for one reason or another; style or substance or both. Maybe, in a normal year, one of these trials might throw up a bona fide Guineas contender, but rarely two.

But here we are. It seems Churchill has a right old fight on his hands.

In truth, the Guineas market needed some life injecting into it. Churchill has sat atop the betting throughout the autumn, into the deep midwinter and finally the spring, his price barely flickering.

On October 8, after he won the Dewhurst, he was 7/4 for the Guineas. 2/1 in a place. On April 24, he’s 7/4 for the Guineas. 2/1 in a place. Behind him the picture was blurred, but the victories of Eminent in the Craven and Barney Roy in the Greenham have cleared things up considerably.

Eminent is a big, white-faced Frankel who won the Craven by almost two lengths, powering away from his rivals in the final 100 yards. He did it impressively, from a foe in Rivet who had the two-year-old form in the book by virtue of his Group One Racing Post Trophy win at Doncaster last October.

Churchill beat Rivet a little bit further in the Dewhurst than Eminent did in the Craven. William Haggas’ horse was three-and-a-half lengths behind the Guineas favourite back in October, but he was outpaced over seven furlongs and he’s better over a mile, as he showed in the Racing Post Trophy later the same month.

To judge Eminent’s Guineas chance on such collateral form would be foolish. Six months have passed since Churchill beat Rivet in the Dewhurst, a time in which Eminent has grown from promising maiden winner to Classic contender.

And that Craven win came on just his second start. There must be plenty of lovely improvement to factor into his chance.

Martyn Meade says he’s a hard horse to assess at home, as he (trainer, not horse) doesn’t know how fast he’s going. His stride might be a deceptive one, even to those who know him best, but there is to be no doubt now that he has the speed for the Guineas after his victory in race-record time at Newmarket.

The dry winter and the subsequent fast spring ground was an important factor in what was the fastest of all the Cravens, but, as Simon Rowlands points out in this piece for Timeform, the most crucial aspect of the figure is that it was quick relative to other races on the same card.

Rowlands also points out that the only 2000 Guineas run faster than Eminent’s Craven was Mister Baileys’ in 1994. All of those Guineas, run on May ground generally more in-keeping with what we saw at Newmarket last week. All of those Guineas. Interesting.

As for Barney Roy, he’s similar. He’s also unbeaten, has also run just twice and was also impressive in his trial (that was also run in a good time). 

Richard Hannon’s father won the Greenham six times, but none of those went on to win the Guineas. The younger Hannon did win the Newmarket Classic with Night Of Thunder in his first season with the licence, however, and that horse was second in the Newbury trial.

Hannon undoubtedly has another Classic contender on his hands in Barney Roy, but owners Godolphin should not only be pleased with the first home, as the second, Dream Castle, also carried their famous blue silks and he ran a really promising race in second.

Keen towards the stands’ side flank with no cover, Dream Castle motored into the lead between the fifth and sixth furlong and looked very much the likely winner (traded at 1.04 on Betfair in-running) before Barney Roy hit top gear on the far side. 

Like Eminent, he’s a Frankel, but unlike Eminent, his dam was a sprinter - one that won the Flying Childers as a juvenile, and though trainer Saeed bin Suroor is mulling over the French Guineas and the application of a hood, it could be that a drop in trip will be the making of him.

It takes a lot to make me giddy these days but the prospect of a speedy Frankel does the trick. Hopefully he’ll do a Muhaarar – pull hard for a non-staying eighth in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains before dropping back and taking the sprinting scene by storm.

Anyway, I digress. It’s shaping up to be a cracking 2000 Guineas. The stallion aspect of it all is fascinating too. Can Galileo, by virtue of Churchill, deny his most famous son Frankel a Classic at the first attempt? Or will Excelebration, Frankel’s old rival, beat them both with Barney Roy?

The jury’s out on Churchill for me. Obviously, he’s trained by a genius in Aidan O’Brien, who has spoken of this horse’s beautiful mind. Of course, he has to be respected.

But his juvenile form hasn’t looked any stronger as the months have passed, and the spring trials have thrown up two live contenders. The course form tips my allegiance in favour of Eminent, just, at this stage, but whoever you’re cheering on, the Guineas is shaping up to be a classic Classic.

Click here for the Craven Stakes free video replay

Click here for the Greenham Stakes free video replay

One for the notebook


With the Flat season now in full swing, plenty have already caught the eye with the next few weeks and months in mind. If you missed the Craven Meeting, don’t miss eagle-eyed beaver Matt Brocklebank’s eyecatchers from the week. 

I won’t tread on Brocklebank’s toes, but I am keen to highlight one for your trackers that you may have missed from Bank Holiday Monday. Even if you weren’t feasting on chocolate eggs, the chances are you weren’t watching the action at Redcar at 3.45.

If you weren’t I urge you to watch the replay now and keep a keen eye on Laughton, for trainer Kevin Ryan, breaking from stall three in the yellow Angie Bailey silks carried to success by Brando in the Abernant Stakes last week.

This was his first start since being gelded and it came over a trip that’s probably a furlong too far for him as well. He missed the break a bit too, but he travelled into the contest really nicely before finding little when asked to go and win his race.

Beaten just under five lengths in seventh in the end, on the face of it this was backward step, but I only took encouragement from the performance. He wasn’t given a hard time once it was clear he wasn’t winning and I would expect him to improve on this outing significantly next time out.

Hopefully he will drop back in trip to five furlongs. Some fast ground and a strong gallop would be nice too. Given his connections it would be no surprise if he’s aimed at York’s Dante meeting and the five-furlong handicap that Brando was second in last year.

Rated 82, it’ll be touch and go whether he gets into that race, usually a competitive 0-105. But he could go up in the handicap before then – he’s entered at Doncaster and Thirsk on Friday and Sunday respectively – and wherever he turns up next he’s well worth keeping an eye on.

Click here to add Laughton to your free My Stable tracker


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