Our man has three bets at Kelso and Newbury on Saturday including a couple of horses going for repeat wins in Berkshire.
The Verdict tips: Saturday March 4
1pt e.w. Collingham in 1.50 Kelso at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Bold Plan in 2.10 Newbury at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Black Poppy in 3.25 Newbury at 11/2 (Hills)
Go into ‘battle with McCain charge
The second Saturday before Cheltenham has never been a vintage time in the racing calendar, but Kelso deserve an awful lot of credit for transforming the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle into a compelling and competitive handicap.
It was a tired race when run as a conditions contest in midweek, with small fields and a long odds-on poke from the Nicky Henderson yard the norm – who can forget Zaynar getting turned over at 1/14 in this race one cold and miserable Thursday in the February of 2010?
Thankfully those days look a thing of the past, with an injection of prizemoney and a £100,000 Cheltenham bonus dangled to attract pot hunters from far and wide.
It’s worked, with Emmet Mullins back for more after landing the bonus two years ago, while Dan Skelton bids to add this race to his roster of valuable handicap hurdles and even Gary Moore has turned up with his first ever Kelso runner.
Mctigue is the key horse. Emmet Mullins has proven his shrewdness time and again already in his short career and this horse looks a plot; he gets the 10lb weight-for-age and if he wins this he escapes a penalty in the Boodles given he’s been allotted top weight in that race.
His Grade 2 win at Auteuil was boosted when runner-up St Donats won a Grade 1 next time out, but Mctigue was sixth in that race and then he bombed out behind Lossiemouth, so he doesn’t come here without risks.
At the time of writing his price has tightened into 7/2 and I’d rather take an each-way swing against him at those odds, with Donald McCain’s COLLINGHAM appealing at 14/1.
I think there are a few in here that would prefer softer ground, the improving and unexposed L’Eau Du Sud amongst that number, but there’s a dry forecast going into Morebattle day and conditions look likely to be drying towards Good to Soft which could catch out one or two.
Such a description will be perfect for Collingham, though, a horse who is on the up this season. He’s won at Wetherby and Musselburgh, his only blob of the campaign was when he was tried over 2m4f in a small field and pulled too hard, and a big-field handicap set-up is ideal for him over two miles.
Charlie Maggs (claiming 10lb) gave him a lovely ride at Musselburgh last time, finessing him into the race and only reaching for the stick late on, tactics which could be worth repeating around here given there’s a handful of frontrunners and an all-changing incline from the second last.
He looks a solid each-way proposition with five places readily available (six at Sky Bet, where you might take a slight hit on the price).
The Verdict: Back Collingham each-way in the Morebattle at 14/1
Keep reigning champions on side at Newbury
Over at Newbury there are a few winners from last year’s corresponding meeting to be interested in including Kerry Lee’s BLACK POPPY in the Make Your Best Bet At BetVictor Handicap Hurdle.
This horse beat Straw Fan Jack in a thrilling finish last year after travelling well and he reinforced his liking for Newbury next time out when splitting Mark Of Gold and Irish Hill, where he was beaten just a nose and was coming back at the winner at the line.
Mark Of Gold is now rated 139 having won three times since, while Irish Hill, beaten eight lengths by Black Poppy, has won four times since and is now rated 134.
Black Poppy is up just 2lb to 119 having tried fences and 2m4f over hurdles in just two starts since the good Newbury run, neither suiting, and both efforts came when Lee’s yard were struggling for winners.
She is firing on all cylinders now having had nine winners at 27% this year and Black Poppy rates the best bet of the weekend.
Earlier on the Newbury card BOLD PLAN goes for back-to-back wins in the BetVictor Non-Runner-No-Bet At Cheltenham Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle for Evan Williams.
He won this race last year off a rating of 123 and he’s dropped 5lb this season to a competitive-looking 126 just in time for his favourite time of year.
Last season the Newbury race was the middle leg of a hat-trick as he followed up at Cheltenham’s April meeting and he’s dropped to a nice mark in time for the spring.
He returned from two months off at Uttoxeter in the middle of February and shaped like he needed the run, but he should be spot-on fitness-wise now.
Hopefully the returning cheekpieces will help him travel as the worry is he could be outpaced at this trip on good ground, but he’ll likely be finishing off his race really well. He’s worth chancing.
The Verdict: Back Bold Plan and Black Poppy at Newbury
Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 03/03/2023
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