Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for York Sky Bet Ebor Festival Thursday August 22

The Verdict: Thursday, August 22

1pt e.w. Aragon Castle in 3.00 York at 12/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts win Emily Upjohn in 3.35 York at 4/1 (Coral, 7/2 General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Falling for Emily in York

Day two at York and for a while I’ve been thinking of backing Queen Of The Pride for the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks given she’s well-bred and progressing nicely.

However, I didn’t expect her to be a strong favourite on her first go at the top level on the fastest ground she has faced and at the prices I would rather back her stablemate, EMILY UPJOHN.

John & Thady Gosden must be scratching their heads with this mare this year, but she showed in the Pretty Polly in Ireland, when second to Juddmonte International fourth Bluestocking, that she is no back number and I reckon we might see the real Emily Upjohn on Thursday.

After all, she is the clear form pick on her best form, her performances at Epsom and Sandown last summer entitling her to be a short-priced favourite here, while fast ground looks a positive given how she bounced off it when winning the Coronation Cup.

She was particularly disappointing at Goodwood last time when sent off 7/4 favourite, but she was keen from a wide draw on an idiosyncratic track that she had never been to before, and I’m inclined to put a line through the run.

Back at conventional York, where she bolted up by over five lengths on her only previous go in the 2022 Musidora, I expect her to be much more like her former self and the absolute clincher is the removal of the hood.

Gosden is a master at removing the hood at the right time, registering a 30% strike-rate when taking the hood off in favour of no headgear at all, as is the case here, and he’s done it in high-profile races before, too.

Another high-class mare, Fanny Logan, won the 2020 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot after a hood removal, while Audience’s Lennox Stakes win at this season’s Glorious Goodwood came after the same headgear was dispensed with.

Indeed, Emily Upjohn ran the second-best race of her career, when second to Paddington in last year’s Coral-Eclipse, the last time the hood was removed, and prices around 7/2 and 4/1 underestimate her for my money.

The Verdict: Back EMILY UPJOHN in the 3.35 York

Castle can be king in the Clipper

Elsewhere bets are thin on the ground on Thursday, as I can’t find an angle in the Sky Bet Lowther or the big sales race and Sea Just In Time is so highly thought of (has a couple of Group 1 entries) she could blow them away in the Galtres Stakes.

It could be a big day for her trainer William Haggas, who also holds the key to the day’s big betting race given he saddles up hot favourite Elnajmm in the Clipper Handicap over a mile.

Another by Sea The Stars, he’s officially 2lb well-in and could be a Group horse in the making, so it’s no wonder he finds himself as 3/1 favourite even in such a competitive race.

I’m not mad keen on taking him on, I must admit, but I do think his mark will catch up with him at this trip at some point, especially on a speedy track, and there are a few tempting each-way options to choose from.

Thunder Run and Mr King were both on the shortlist, but ARAGON CASTLE still looks ahead of his mark and dropping back to a mile looks the right move with him.

His run at Goodwood last time can be marked up considerably seeing as he lost a few lengths when he stumbled out of the stalls, before he raced with the choke out towards the rear.

Despite the adversity he got himself into contention quite stylishly in a good race and it’s worth keeping the faith with him as a strongly-run mile looks ideal.

Three-year-olds used to have a good win record in this race when they got in more frequently – they have won four of the last 21 renewals – and while they are winless since 2010 only 10 have tried and two, Windhoek and Mustashry, were second.

Andrew Balding’s son of Territories bolted up the last time he took on his elders at Hamilton in July, the second James McHenry franking the form at Thirsk, and he looks capable of making the most of the 6lb weight-for-age.

Always highly thought of – he was sent off 3/1 for a nursery at this meeting last year – Aragon Castle has more to offer and he could be the one to shake up Elnajmm in receipt of 16lb.

The Verdict: Back ARAGON CASTLE in the 3.00 York

Preview posted at 1545 BST on 21/08/24

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