Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Saturday's ITV racing at Newmarket and at Longchamp
Our racing expert has four tips for Saturday's action from Newmarket and Longchamp including two against the field in the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap.
The Verdict: Saturday, September 30
1pt win Ghostwriter in 1.50 Newmarket at SP
1pt win Sea Silk Road in 3.33 Longchamp at 8/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt win Haunted Dream in 3.40 Newmarket at 20/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Majestic in 3.40 Newmarket at 18/1 (General)
Go with Dream duo in the Cambridgeshire
A maximum field of 35 line up for the bet365 Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday and plenty of eyes will be on Greek Order who looks the one horse in the field who could blow this heritage handicap apart.
Harry & Roger Charlton’s Kingman colt is clearly a three-year-old on the up and his performance at Newbury last time suggested he could be right at home over a strongly-run nine furlongs.
Charlton has won this race before including with the well-backed Blue Monday in 2005, so he well knows what is required for this race and there's every chance Greek Order will be running in better races than this next year.
The problem is his price, as he's been well found at 4/1, and given he can be slowly away he'll likely have to be ridden for luck by Oisin Murphy.
In short, I’m happy to watch him win at those odds, as lady luck plays a huge part in a race like this, and I'd rather have a couple of win-only bets against him on two horses that look well suited to this unique test.
Both are drawn high towards the stands’ side, which has been the place to be in recent renewals. The peloton gravitated towards the stands’ side last year and it could be a case of same again, and while you can’t be sure about these things going with the stands’ side group being favoured looks the percentage call.
First up is HAUNTED DREAM for Ed Dunlop, a horse who has been knocking on the door in valuable 10-furlong handicaps all season.
He improved for his turf reappearance when a close second at Sandown’s Coral-Eclipse meeting and he has held his form well since then, running third in the John Smith’s Cup at York, second in the Chesterfield Cup at Goodwood and then third again in the Sky Bet Finale Handicap at the Ebor Festival.
On his last three runs he has shaped like a nine-furlong horse and the guaranteed gallop at this trip looks sure to play to his strengths.
He's got his ground and Morgan Cole takes off 5lb, which helps given he keeps nudging up the weights, and he looks a solid proposition from stall 32 on a track that should play to his strengths (has run well twice here in the past).
It’s worth having two strings to your punt in a race like this and I can’t help but think last year’s winner MAJESTIC will go well again for Jack Channon at 18/1.
He’s got a very similar draw in 29 to last year and he’s only 3lb higher in the weights following a winless campaign from seven starts.
However, he has shaped well on several occasions, including at York and Epsom in the spring when he got his ground, his placed efforts in those races from a perch of 92 giving him a big chance in his Cambridgeshire defence off 89.
There have been repeat winners of this race, including Bronze Angel less than 10 years ago, and the way he finished to seal this race 12 months ago suggests it is the perfect fit for him.
The Verdict: Split stakes on HAUNTED DREAM and MAJESTIC in the Cambridgeshire
Ghostwriter can give Lodge rivals a scare
The two Group 1 races for juveniles don’t really appeal from a punting perspective but there could be some value in taking on the Ballydoyle and Godolphin horses in the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes that opens the card at 1.50.
This looks a tighter heat than the betting suggests and while market leaders Capulet and Aablan are both promising horses they are both bred for a trip and could be vulnerable to a ‘now’ horse that has more gears.
Clive Cox’s GHOSTWRITER appeals in that respect, as while he’s stoutly-bred himself on his dam’s side he looks to have inherited plenty of speed from his sire, Invincible Spirit, after two impressive wins over seven furlongs from two starts.
He travelled well in a prominent position when running away with a maiden on the July Course at Newmarket on debut, but he improved on that good form when winning a Class 2 novice at Ascot last time out under a penalty.
There were some nice types in that race, including subsequent Kempton winner Military Artist - who was beaten over eight lengths in fourth, and he was value for plenty more having jumped the beginning of the shadow of the grandstand in the final furlong.
Cox has a good record in the backend juvenile races at Newmarket and Ghostwriter (5/1 at the time of writing) has loads of scope, so he’s worth a bet at starting price given the likely market support for the Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby pair.
The Verdict: Back GHOSTWRITER at SP in the Royal Lodge
Silk worth a touch in Royallieu
Over in France it’s day one of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe meeting and SEA SILK ROAD looks worth a bet at 8/1 in the Group 1 Qatar Prix de Royallieu for William Haggas.
Haggas won this race last year with a daughter of Sea The Stars thanks to Sea La Rosa and he’s got another cut from a similar cloth here in Sea Silk Road who has been improving over a mile and a half this season.
Beaten a neck by Poptronic in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks at Haydock in July, that was a career-best run at the time but she has bettered it twice since, firstly when finishing four lengths off Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks and secondly when cutting that deficit by two lengths in the Prix Vermeille.
The way she finished that day suggested a step up in trip might be imminent and sure enough Haggas has taken the plunge in this 1m6f contest with a filly that is bred for the job.
Her dam is a half-sister to 1m6f winner Oriental Eagle and 2m5f winner Oriental Fox, so there’s some serious staying power in her pedigree which suggests improvement could be a distinct possibility at the trip.
Crucially, the ground looks in her favour as well and while she has to reverse the Vermeille form with Melo Melo she looks a good price to do so at this trip.
The Verdict: Back Sea Silk Road in the 3.33 Longchamp
Preview posted at 1540 BST on 29/09/23
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